Live from Across the Wide Missouri: Is the sprouted quinoa-kamut bread from Ibis Bakery the best loaf of bread in the United States, or just in greater Kansas City?
Live from TrumpLand: Ian Haney-Lopez: How the GOP became the “White Man’s Party”:
On the Democratic side, in 1970...Richard Scammon and Ben Wattenberg published The Real Majority, cautioning their party that “Social Issues” now divided the base. “The machinist’s wife in Dayton may decide to leave the Democratic reservation in 1972 and vote for Nixon or Wallace or their ideological descendants,” Scammon and Wattenberg warned:
Live from DerpLand on the Midway: Jesse Singal reads University of Chicago dean John Ellison's "no trigger warnings, no safe spaces" letter via a hermeneutics of charity. I, by contrast, read the letter via a hermeneutics of derp:
Jesse Singal: The University of Chicago's Anti-Safe-Space Letter Matters:
The University of Chicago’s dean of students John Ellison... sen[t]... a rather assertive letter... to the incoming class of 2020... a flawed letter that could have been a little less provocative--maybe that was the point....
Let's look first at Jesse admitting that he has a sow's ear here:
Let’s get the weirdest part of the letter out of the way....
Our commitment to academic freedom means that we do not support so-called “trigger warnings,” we do not cancel invited speakers because their topics might prove controversial, and we do not condone the creation of intellectual “safe spaces” where individuals can retreat from ideas and perspectives at odds with their own.
Live from Trumpland: Dara Lind: What the hell is going on with Trump and immigration, explained:
Here is what was supposed to happen: Donald Trump, fresh off a staff shakeup, was going to reboot his flailing campaign by spending a week talking about immigration--the issue that made him the Republican nominee....
No Longer Fresh at Project Syndicate: A Brief History of (In)equality: Here we have a very nice set of slides http://tinyurl.com/dl20160725a. It comes from a talk in Lisbon given by Barry Eichengreen, my sixth-floor office neighbor here at the Berkeley Economics Department. The slides have one of the great virtues of economic history: We, unlike other economists, are allowed to at least gesture at and even glory at the complexities of a situation. We are not forced, as other economists are, into ruthless oversimplification in pursuit of conceptual clarity—to be followed by the intellectually-faulty imperialism overloading more of an explanation of the world on a simple model then it can rightfully bear. Read MOAR at Project Syndicate
Must-Read: Ruddier Bachmann and Eric Sims: Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks:
In a standard structural VAR, an empirical measure of confidence does not significantly react to spending shocks and output multipliers are around one...
Why do we talk about "helicopter money"? We talk about helicopter money because we seek a tool for managing aggregate demand--for nudging the level of spending in an economy up to but not above the economy's current sustainable productive potential--that is all of:
Live from Trumpland: Immigration was always the explosive wedge that will destroy the GOP:
Running hard on immigration is a brilliant way to win the primary...
Must-Read: Gabriel Chodorow-Reich and Johannes Wieland: Secular Labor Reallocation and Business Cycles:
We study how economies respond to idiosyncratic shocks which induce reallocation of labor across industries....
Live from the Journamalists' Self-Made Gehenna: Your daily reminder that there is something morally wrong with you if you pay money to the Washington Post for any purpose whatsoever:
Parker Molloy: Dear media outlets:
- Please just put the answer in the hed.
- Don't hide it behind a paywall.
Live from Trumpland: Leigh Ann Caldwell and Benjy Sarlin: What Will Happen to the GOP after Trump:
The GOP for years was a diverse but sturdy three-legged stool of security hawks, tax cutters and religious conservatives....
All-len-All: Congress Establishes the National Park Service:
By 1916, the Interior Department was responsible for 14 national parks and 21 national monuments but had no organization to manage them. Interior secretaries had asked the Army to detail troops to Yellowstone and the California parks for this purpose. There military engineers and cavalrymen developed park roads and buildings, enforced regulations against hunting, grazing, timber cutting, and vandalism, and did their best to serve the visiting public. Civilian appointees superintended the other parks, while the monuments received minimal custody.
Must-Read: Ruixue Jia (2014): The Legacies of Forced Freedom: China's Treaty Ports:
This paper investigates the long-run development of China's treaty ports from the mid-eighteenth century until today. Focusing on a sample of prefectures on the coast or on the Yangtze River, I document the dynamic development paths of treaty ports and their neighbors in alternate phases of closedness and openness. I also provide suggestive evidence on migration and sector-wise growth to understand the advantage of treaty ports in the long run.
Comment of the Day: Altoid: Weekend Reading: Matthew Yglesias: Donald Trump a Media Celebrity, Not a Real Businessman:
And, in the same way that Newt Gingrich is said to be a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like, Donald Trump is a naive person's idea of what a business mogul sounds like.
Live from BushLand: Does Colin Powell want to have a reputation? Did Colin Powell suggest that Hillary Clinton should use her private email account as Secretary of State? Yes. Did he remember so advising her? Yes. Does he remember that now? He claims not to...
Joe Conason: [Did Colin Powell Advise Clinton To Use A Private Email?]:
Did Colin Powell suggest that Hillary Clinton should use her private email account as secretary of state—as he had admittedly done in that same job several years earlier?...
Must-Read: Mark Thoma looks back and marvels at his naivete with respect to macroeconomic policy:
Mark Thoma: Why We Need a Fiscal Policy Commission:
During the Great Recession, monetary policymakers were aggressive and creative....
George Washington: General Orders:
Parole Framingham—C. Signs Fez—France.
Brigade returns of all the horses in each Regiment and by whom kept to be made out immediately and delivered in to the orderly Office by 12 ôClock tomorrow.
The honorable the Congress have been pleased to agree to the following Report of their Committee and to pass the resolution annexed to it:
Eleanor Roosevelt: My Day:
NEW YORK, Thursday--None of us can help being worried and indignant over the shooting down of two of our unarmed transport planes which had wandered over the Yugoslav border. Conceding that there may be some hidden reason why our planes are forbidden to fly over a friendly country, it still seems a little difficult for the layman to understand.
Wikipedia: Battle of Rhode Island:
Since d'Estaing's fleet outnumbered Howe's, the French admiral, fearful that Howe would be further reinforced and eventually gain a numerical advantage, reboarded the French troops, and sailed out to do battle with Howe on August 10. As the two fleets prepared to battle and maneuvered for position, the weather deteriorated, and a major storm broke out. Raging for two days, the storm scattered both fleets, severely damaging the French flagship. It also frustrated plans by Sullivan to attack Newport without French support on August 11.
George C. Marshall: [To Colonel Marshall S. Carter]:
August 21, 1946 Radio No. GOLD 1360. [Nanking, China]
Secret, Eyes Alone
Reference your WAR-97857.1 My view is as follows: situation critical in the extreme, small prospect for early termination of hostilities agreement—therefore likelihood great of spread of fighting into Jehol Province and Manchuria.
Live from Trumpland: Josh Marshall: Turtles and BS All The Way Down:
The Trump camp, trying to right its ship, has now found itself either embracing President Obama's deportation policy or claiming that they're now just starting to deciding what their policy should be...
Over at Equitable Growth: Must-Reads:
Must-Read: Ummm... Maury... What's going on in there?
In theory, the IMF now wants current account surplus countries to rely more heavily on fiscal stimulus and less on monetary stimulus...
Must-Read: Suresh Naidu and Noam Yuchtman: Lessons on inequality, labour markets, and conflict from the Gilded Age:
A key feature of successful strikes was the ability of incumbent employees to prevent the use of replacement workers, via persuasion, pickets, or violence...
Must-Read: Stanley Fischer is off message. The right message for Stanley Fischer to be saying right now is not: "We are close to our targets... within hailing distance..."
The right message is:
MarketWatch.... quotes Stanley Fischer... as saying, "We are close to our targets" for inflation and unemployment...
Over at Equitable Growth: I want to say that people like Global Head of Credit Products Strategy at Citigroup Matt King are simply not thinking clearly. The macroeconomic regularities that seem obvious to me simply are not there to him. What he ought to be saying is:
But that is rarely what he or his peers are saying. Thus I hesitate. Could they possibly be misreading the situation in such an obvious way? What are they seeing and thinking about that I am missing?
Thus I never know what to do with pieces like this: Read MOAR Over at Equitable Growth:
Alexandra Scaggs: There’s No Yield, and Citi Isn’t Going to Take It Anymore:
Citi’s Matt King has some harsh words for central bankers...
Alexandra Scaggs: There’s No Yield, and Citi Isn’t Going to Take It Anymore:
Citi’s Matt King has some harsh words for central bankers...
Live from the Banks of the Missouri: Thursday, October 13, 2016: 2016 Kansas Economic Policy Conference: Reimagining Kansas: Policy Implications Now and in the Future:
Live from the Journamalists' Self-Made Gehenna: The Washington Post really should simply stop pretending to be a newspaper:
Live from Trumpland:
I fear for my country when I reflect that Mitt Romney was so much less ridiculous as a candidate for president than is Donald Trump, and yet there polls are in the same range:
Mike Sax: Colin Powell Protests too Much:
It's amazing what he doesn't remember now that he did remember two months ago. He was very happy to kick Hillary in the teeth over the weekend. Of course, [Chris Cillizza was very happy to write about it]. It's about the only thing Cillizza ever writes about himself anymore at The Fix:
Live from Trumpland: Betsy Woodruff: Trump Tells Virginia Town It’s Failing, Cites the Wrong Place:
Loudoun is the richest county in America... replete with defense contractors, engineers, and rocket scientists. And it’s recession-proof...
Over at Equitable Growth: It was 24 years ago this week that Larry Summers and I warned that if we were to push the target inflation rate much below roughly 5%/year, then, in the immortal words of Dr Suess's the Fish in the Pot:
"Do I like this? Oh, no, I do not. This is not a good game", said our fish as he lit. "No, I do not like it, not one little bit!"
As I see it, if we want good macroeconomic business-cycle stabilization policy over the next generation, we need to do one or more of four things. I think the more of them we do, the better. And I want Summers and Bernanke to chair a commission this fall and winter to establish the order in which we should attempt to do these four things, and to start building the political and technocratic coalition to get them accomplished: Read MOAR Over at at Equitable Growth
Must-Read: For a single carrier in a market, the obvious strategy to offer is the "narrow network, low price Silver as the #1 and a broad network Silver at a significantly higher premium as the #2 benchmark Silver" in order to pump Exchange subsidy money out of CMS, and then spend that pumped money to make everybody happy, no? There are ways to do that, no? The single carrier markets will see a lot of market power exercised, but won't the main impact of it be to raise costs to CMS rather than to diminish the well-being of Exchange purchasers?
Just thinking aloud here...
Richard Mayhew: ObamaCare APTC Hacks:
There are other exchange strategies that don’t rely as much on manipulating... [Silver Plan price] structures...
Nicholas Dirks, Chancellor of the University of California at Berkeley, writes an email...
And my response is: Shouldn't that read "finish the search[es]" rather than "launch the search[es]"? Doesn't anybody know how to play this game?
If you can without significant loss of administrative coherence leave the positions of Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost, of Vice Chancellor for Administration and Finance, and of Vice Chancellor for Student Affairs open not just until a new Chancellor appears next March but for eight months beyond that until November 2017, you really do not need either an Executive Vice Chancellor and Provost, a Vice Chancellor for Administration and Finance, or a Vice Chancellor for Student Affairs.
I would bet Berkeley needs a long-term appointee in at least one of these three jobs. If not, I see easy permanent administrative savings of about $1,000,000/year--the equivalent of a $25M gift--from dismantling those three offices.
Therefore the searches should be all tee-ed up with at most six finalists so that the new Chancellor next March can make a quick decision and get the show on the road...
Comment of the Day: Maynard Handley: Live from Trumpland: Who is attracted to voting for Trump?:
We enrage them not just because in many cases we are the nerds they bullied in class, who somehow have now ended up "running the world." We enrage them because we lecture them about how they need to be more open to those who compete with them for jobs and housing and wealth--minorities, immigrants, and women--even though in most cases we are ourselves not exposed to said competition...
I think this misses one essential psychological point: it is not being lectured to that people dislike, it is being lectured to by someone who turns out to be RIGHT...
In remembrance of a truly excellent lunch at the Firefly Grill in Effingham, Illinois--the kind of place that David Brooks claims simply does not exist--and in mockery of Niall Ferguson's claims that the election is 50-50 and is "Fishtown vs. Belmont, Chick-Fil-A vs. quinoa", we once again the hoist from the bowels of the Internet the extremely sharp Sasha Issenberg's immortal mockery-takedown of David Brooks.
People who have never read this should read the whole thing.
And can anybody tell me why, after this, the New York Times didn't take Brooks's opinion-hole away from him and give it to Sasha? Or at least leave it blank, out of shame? I mean, no statistics plus faked anecdotes--what is the value in David Brooks here?
Sasha Issenberg (2004): Boo-Boos in Paradise:
As I made my journey [through Franklin County, PA], it became increasingly hard to believe that Brooks ever left his home [in Montgomery County, MD]:
Live from Trumpland: Who is attracted to voting for Trump? And why am I not--even as more than half of my income class is going to pull the lever for Trump this fall? Is it my urbanity? My education level? My unwillingness to fall for one of the most obvious grifts on the planet? The fact that I took too many American Studies courses as a child and so identify not as "white" but as "Yankee"--a descendant predominantly of East Anglian and Severn Valley Puritans, the position of whose culture and values in America today is not a result of relative numbers?
Josh Marshall wrestles with this hard problem, and comes up with a Polanyiesque interpretation: the disappointment by the market economic system of what had been thought as reasonable expectations leads to a politics of revenge--but not just of revenge against the Masters of the Universe, revenge against those who are somehow getting above themselves and getting free stuff:
Josh Marshall: Trumpism is a Politics of Loss and Revenge:
Trump support is highly correlated with areas experiencing rising mortality rates for whites--a massively important societal development, in addition to a tragedy....
Pseudoerasmus: Greece from Postwar Orthodoxy to “Democratic Peronism”:
In a paper which passes for a reasonable parody of the Washington Consensus fad of the 1990s...
Over at Equitable Growth: Must-Reads:
Must-Read: I'll take "Doom for $2000", Nicolas...
If free trade, the industrial research lab, the gold standard, and high finance to lobby for peace and channel money to régimes that played by the rules of the game were the key stabilizing institutions of Gold Standardism, and if labor unions, Keynesian demand management, social insurance, and high-throughput oligopolistic assembly-line manufacturing were the key stabilizing institutions of Fordism, what are the next key stabilizing institutions? There is no guarantee that there will be any. There was, after all, a 33-year gap between the breakdown of Gold Standardism in 1913 and the first clear signs of the successful construction of Fordism in 1946. If we see 2000 as the last gasp of successful Fordism... we may have a long slog. For who in 1913 would have predicted the future and bet that labor unions, Keynesian demand management, social insurance, and high-throughput oligopolistic assembly-line manufacturing were the key institutions to be building?
Nicolas Colin: Doom, or Europe’s Polanyi Moment?:
The Great Transformation... is really about the social and economic institutions that are necessary to support the market system and to make economic development more sustainable and inclusive...
Live from the Nineteenth-Century Equivocating Political Stump: Abraham Lincoln: Speech at Ottawa (August 21, 1858): "Now, gentlemen, I don't want to read at any greater length...
...but this is the true complexion of all I have ever said in regard to the institution of slavery and the black race. This is the whole of it, and anything that argues me into his idea of perfect social and political equality with the negro, is but a specious and fantastic arrangement of words, by which a man can prove a horse-chestnut to be a chestnut horse. [Laughter.]
Live from the Wingnutosphere: I do confess that I was surprised when, on Trish Regan's show, Steve Moore abandoned his previous support of the TPP. He claimed that it had "lots of pages" and that "the other parties won't follow its provisions". Well, it had "lots of pages" back when you supported it, Steve--if you are going to cut tariffs on lots of items and draw detailed rules for what people owe foreigners for the intellectual property they use, "lots of pages" comes with the deal. It had "lots of pages" when you were urging Marco Rubio to vote for it, Steve. It has "lots of pages" now. And on enforcement, the entire point of the TPP is that it gives us tools to penalize countries that do not follow its rules, and thus provide them with incentive to obey its provisions. We don't have those too now. TPP gives them to us.
Even as a (mild, nearly on the fence) TPP skeptic, I was gobsmacked both by the rapidity of Moore's rapid reversal of field and by the vacuity of his arguments against it--and by Trish Regan's failure to call him on it.
Why did Moore reverse field? Why were Moore's only arguments so vacuous? Why did Regan not call him on it? Well, because Donald Trump says that he is against the TPP as negotiated by Obama, of course. (Though dollars gets you donuts that should he become president, there will be a few cosmetic changes, it will suddenly become a good, well-negotiated trade agreement, and Trump will be for it, and Moore will revert to his position of three months ago.)
But there's more (or, rather, Moore). Let me outsource the rest of this to PGL:
Pro Growth Liberal (2015): Stephen Moore Declares a North Carolina Miracle:
Stephen Moore has another silly parade of disinformation...
August 21, 2016 at 09:37 AM in Economics: Growth, Moral Responsibility, Obama Administration, Political Economy, Politics, Streams: (Monday) Smackdown Watch, Streams: Across the Wide Missouri, Streams: Cycle, Streams: Economics, Streams: Equitable Growth, Streams: Highlighted | Permalink | Comments (4)
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Live from the Kansas City Convention Center: Niall Alexander: [“Winter, Spring, Summer, Fall; Death is the Fifth, and Master of All”: The Fifth Season by N. K. Jemisin]:
An orogene, or—if you want to be a bigot about it, as most of the people of the Stillness do, to be sure—a rogga...
Live from the Kansas City Convention Center: Damien Walter: Hugo Awards: Reading the Sad Puppies' Pets:
With this year’s Hugo awards coming on Saturday night in the US...
Looking Forward to Four Years During Which Most if Not All of America's Potential for Human Progress Is Likely to Be Wasted
With each passing day Donald Trump looks more and more like Silvio Berlusconi: bunga-bunga governance, with a number of unlikely and unforeseen disasters and a major drag on the country--except in states where his policies are neutralized.
Nevertheless, remember: WE ARE WITH HER!
The purpose of this weblog is to be the best possible portal into what I am thinking, what I am reading, what I think about what I am reading, and what other smart people think about what I am reading...
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