Grasping Reality with My Left Hand, My Right Hand, and My Gripping Hand: bradford-delong.com:

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http://www.bradford-delong.com/highlighted.html

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Fairly Recent Must- and Shoulds:

1. Leigh Ann Caldwell and Vaughn Hillard: Senate Considers 'Skinny' Repeal of Obamacare in Tuesday's Voting: "The plan... is for senators to... a 'skinny' repeal... eliminat[ing] Obamacare's individual mandate penalty, the employer mandate penalty, and the tax on medical devices.... The Senate would then go to conference.... Conferees would work out a final bill. Both chambers would then have to vote..." http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-sets-sights-skinny-repeal-obamacare-tuesday-s-voting-n786296
2. Matthew Yglesias: Senate Republicans’ approach to health care is bizarre and appalling: "Nobody can tell exactly what Senate Republicans are doing with Americans’ health care, largely because they keep lying about it... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/27/16040284/senate-republicans-health-care-lies
3. Dylan Scott**: The Obamacare repeal debate is now a completely bonkers game of chicken: "On Thursday evening, mere hours before the Senate is supposed to vote on a health care bill, the United States Capitol is in chaos... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/7/27/16053268/senate-obamacare-repeal-chaos
4. Jonathan Franklin (2001): Chilean army admits 120 thrown into sea: "Disclosure adds to dossier against defiant Pinochet..." https://www.theguardian.com/world/2001/jan/09/chile.pinochet
5. Timothy J. Sturgeon, Peter Bøegh Nielsen, Greg Linden, Gary Gereffi, and Clair Brown: Direct Measurement of Global Value Chains: Collecting Product- and Firm-Level Statistics on Value Added and Business Function Outsourcing and Offshoring
6. Josh Marshall: Trumpism Distilled: "Scaramucci has managed to become a compressed, crystallized version of all the ridiculousness of Trumpism... http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trumpism-distilled

Links for the Week of July 24, 2017

Must-Reads:

• Ryan Avent: Making Monetary Policy Great Again: "Obama’s response to the economic crisis... the timidity of his stimulus plan... his failure to provide broad support to struggling homeowners... his premature pivot to deficit cutting... http://democracyjournal.org/magazine/45/making-monetary-policy-great-again/
• Timothy Garton Ash (2007): The Road from Danzig: "The offense is that [Guenter Grass] should for so many years have made it his stock-in-trade to denounce post-war West Germans’ failure to face up to the Nazi past... http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2007/08/16/the-road-from-danzig/
• Anatole Kaletsky: A “Macroneconomic” Revolution?: "Given the abundance of useful ideas, why have so few of the policies that might have ameliorated economic conditions and alleviated public resentment been implemented since the crisis?... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/replacement-market-fundamentalism-by-anatole-kaletsky-2017-07
• Noah Smith (2011): Noahpinion: The liberty of local bullies: "I have not been surprised by any of the quotes that have recently come to light from Ron Paul's racist newsletters. I grew up in Texas, remember... http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.jp/2011/12/liberty-of-local-bullies.html
• Mark Thoma: Here’s Why We’re Not Prepared for the Next Recession: "When will the next recession hit?... http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2017/07/17/Here-s-Why-We-re-Not-Prepared-Next-Recession
• Nick Bunker: Recessions, recoveries, and racial employment gaps in the United States: "The unemployment gap between black and white workers... can’t be explained by black Americans having lower levels of education or differences in demographics... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/recessions-recoveries-and-racial-employment-gaps-in-the-united-states/
• Maarten de Ridder and Coen Teulings: Endogenous growth and lack of recovery from the Global Crisis: "The crisis [is] a quasi-natural experiment to test the endogenous growth hypothesis... http://voxeu.org/article/endogenous-growth-and-lack-recovery-global-crisis
• Adam Jentleson: @AJentleson on Twitter: "Having spent countless hours listening to McConnell & years working with his office, I'd like to offer a few thoughts on tonight's news... https://twitter.com/AJentleson/status/887147912999960579

Procrastination on July 22, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Nick Bunker: Weekend reading: “Boosting the competition” edition: "Since 2000 the concentration of businesses in the United States has increased and the amount of business investment relative to profits has declined... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/weekend-reading-boosting-the-competition-edition/
• Jonathan Baker: Market power in the U.S. economy today: "The U.S. economy has a 'market power' problem, notwithstanding our strong and extensive antitrust institutions... http://equitablegrowth.org/research-analysis/market-power-in-the-u-s-economy-today/
• Doug Elmendorf et al.: Letter from Former CBO Directors on the Importance of CBO’s Role in the Legislative Process: "The undersigned represent every former Director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)... https://medium.com/@douglas.elmendorf/letter-from-former-cbo-directors-on-the-importance-of-cbos-role-in-the-legislative-process-278863b7e1c6
• Ryan Avent: Making Monetary Policy Great Again: "Obama’s response to the economic crisis... the timidity of his stimulus plan... his failure to provide broad support to struggling homeowners... his premature pivot to deficit cutting... http://democracyjournal.org/magazine/45/making-monetary-policy-great-again/
• Pedro Nicolaci da Costa: Ex-Bank of England official says Fed has wrong idea on jobs, inflation: "The Fed's misleading view of the job market reflects 'a huge intellectual failure'... http://www.businessinsider.com/ex-bank-of-england-official-says-fed-has-wrong-idea-on-jobs-inflation-2017-7
• Cosma Shalizi (2006): Accents, Heritability, Measured IQ, the Flynn Effect, and Intelligence: ">Q: Would you put on your right-thinking left-liberal educated-in-Berkeley-and-Madison hat for a moment?... http://delong.typepad.com/egregious_moderation/2007/07/cosma-shalizi-a.html
• Timothy Garton Ash (2007): The Road from Danzig: "The offense is that [Guenter Grass] should for so many years have made it his stock-in-trade to denounce post-war West Germans’ failure to face up to the Nazi past... http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2007/08/16/the-road-from-danzig/
• Anatole Kaletsky: A “Macroneconomic” Revolution?: "Given the abundance of useful ideas, why have so few of the policies that might have ameliorated economic conditions and alleviated public resentment been implemented since the crisis?... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/replacement-market-fundamentalism-by-anatole-kaletsky-2017-07
• Mark Thoma: Here’s Why We’re Not Prepared for the Next Recession: "When will the next recession hit?... http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2017/07/17/Here-s-Why-We-re-Not-Prepared-Next-Recession
• Christina Romer and David Romer (2009): Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending: "The hypothesis that decreases in taxes reduce future government spending is often cited as a reason for cutting taxes... https://www.brookings.edu/bpea-articles/do-tax-cuts-starve-the-beast-the-effect-of-tax-changes-on-government-spending/
• Nick Bunker: Is declining competition causing slow U.S. business investment growth?: "Germán Gutiérrez and Thomas Philippon... the divergence between investment and profits... employ a so-called natural experiment where the entrance of competition from China changed investment decisions... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/is-declining-competition-causing-slow-u-s-business-investment-growth/
• Nick Bunker: Recessions, recoveries, and racial employment gaps in the United States: "The unemployment gap between black and white workers... can’t be explained by black Americans having lower levels of education or differences in demographics... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/recessions-recoveries-and-racial-employment-gaps-in-the-united-states/
• Maarten de Ridder and Coen Teulings: Endogenous growth and lack of recovery from the Global Crisis: "The crisis [is] a quasi-natural experiment to test the endogenous growth hypothesis... http://voxeu.org/article/endogenous-growth-and-lack-recovery-global-crisis
• Christian Odendahl: The Hartz Myth: "Germany’s labour market and welfare reforms of the early 2000s have gained an outsized importance over time... http://www.cer.eu/sites/default/files/pbrief_german_labour_10.7.17.pdf
• Ann Marie Marciarille: Those Pesky Pre-Dispute Arbitration Agreements for Skilled Nursing Facilities: "Assisting a parent or loved one in seeking skilled nursing facility admission is no joke... http://www.marciarille.com/2017/05/those-pesky-pre-dispute-arbitration-agreements-for-skilled-nursing-facilities.html
• Adam Jentleson: @AJentleson on Twitter: "Having spent countless hours listening to McConnell & years working with his office, I'd like to offer a few thoughts on tonight's news... https://twitter.com/AJentleson/status/887147912999960579
• Jonathan Cohn, Paige Lavender, and Chris D’Angelo: Senate Republicans Just Killed Their Health Care Bill Again: "But it could come back in another form. Like a zombie... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/jerry-moran-mike-lee-senate-health-care_us_596d594ce4b0e983c05877f4
• Nancy Folbre: Why current definitions of family income are misleading, and why this matters for measures of inequality: "Researchers studying income distribution in the United States seem reluctant to acknowledge the family as an important unit of production and distribution... http://equitablegrowth.org/research-analysis/why-current-definitions-of-family-income-are-misleading-and-why-this-matters-for-measures-of-inequality/

Links for the Week of July 18, 2017

Must-Reads:

• Ann Marie Marciarille: More Than One Way to Say "No": "When I teach my students about the concept of guaranteed issue in health insurance I always make it clear that without some constraints on individual underwriting it  can mean very little... http://www.marciarille.com/2017/07/more-than-one-way-to-say-no.html
• Adam Ozimek: There Is No U.S. Wage Growth Mystery: "Economists... puzzled over U.S. wage growth... wondering why it has been so slow despite a labor market that is allegedly back to or close to full employment... https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/296127/There-Is-No-US-Wage-Growth-Mystery/
• Dani Rodrik: Economics of the populist backlash: The populist backlash to globalisation should not have come as a surprise, in light of economic history and economic theory... http://voxeu.org/article/economics-populist-backlash
• Matthew Yglesias: On Twitter: "Nostalgia-drenched anti-intellectual populism can be a cause rather than a consequence of community economic decline" https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/884438584467521537
• Paul Krugman: When Was The Golden Age Of Conservative Intellectuals?: "Bret Stephens’s... [on] the intellectual decline of conservatism... the modern degeneracy... https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/07/09/when-was-the-golden-age-of-conservative-intellectuals/?smid=tw-share&_r=0
• Larry Summers: Donald Trump’s alarming G20 performance: "the content of the [of the G-20] communiqué [is] a confirmation of the breakdown of international order that many have feared since the election of Donald Trump... https://www.ft.com/content/ea2849ea-6335-11e7-8814-0ac7eb84e5f1

Procrastination on July 17, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Nick Bunker: Weekend reading: “Let’s make this post more democratically accountable” edition: "The newest set of releases in the Equitable Growth Working Paper series... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/weekend-reading-lets-make-this-post-more-democratically-accountable-edition/
• John Maynard Keynes (1924): Obituary for Alfred Marshall: "The study of economics does not seem to require any specialised gifts of an unusually high order... https://todayinsci.com/K/Keynes_John/KeynesJohn-Quotations.htm
• Robert Caro: Means of Ascent: Carpetbaggers and Scalawags: [Richard Coke] a Confederate veteran who in 1873 wrested the government of Texas from the Carpetbaggeres and freed the state from the injustices of Reconstruction..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/07/carpetbaggers-a.html
• John Maynard Keynes (1938): On Tinbergen. To Harrod http://economia.unipv.it/harrod/edition/editionstuff/rfh.34a.htm: "My dear Roy...
• Paul Krugman: Formerly True Theories (Wonkish and Self-Indulgent): "Are there other examples? The self-correcting economy... https://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/krugman/2017/07/10/formerly-true-theories-wonkish-and-self-indulgent/
• Robert Solow: Improving the measurement and understanding of economic inequality in the United States: "There has long been interest in extending and improving the National Income and Product Accounts... http://equitablegrowth.org/research-analysis/improving-the-measurement-and-understanding-of-economic-inequality-in-the-united-states/
• Ann Marie Marciarille: Let's Make a Deal and the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017: A Car or A Goat?: "I am as mesmerized as anyone else by the repeated iterations of the Better Care Reconciliation Act of 2017... http://www.marciarille.com/2017/07/lets-make-a-deal-and-the-better-care-reconciliation-act-of-2017-a-car-or-a-goat.html
• Helene Rey: The Global Financial System, the Real Rate of Interest and a Long History of Boom-Bust Cycles: "Financial cycles strongly determine real short-term interest rates... http://www.bis.org/events/agm2017/sp170625_lecture.pdf
• Ann Marie Marciarille: More Than One Way to Say "No": "When I teach my students about the concept of guaranteed issue in health insurance I always make it clear that without some constraints on individual underwriting it  can mean very little... http://www.marciarille.com/2017/07/more-than-one-way-to-say-no.html
• Adam Ozimek: There Is No U.S. Wage Growth Mystery: "Economists... puzzled over U.S. wage growth... wondering why it has been so slow despite a labor market that is allegedly back to or close to full employment... https://www.economy.com/dismal/analysis/datapoints/296127/There-Is-No-US-Wage-Growth-Mystery/

It Was December 28, 1996, That the Wayback Machine First Crawled My Website

This is the state of my website when that happened:

Brad De Long's Website https://web.archive.org/web/19961218222950/http://econ161.berkeley.edu:80/ http://delong.typepad.com/1996-12-18-brad-de-longs-website.pdf

Pages up as of that crawling included:

Assignment Desk: Website (Re)design and The Road to Xanadu

Note: I will collect stuff relevant to this assignment desk here: http://www.bradford-delong.com/stream-the-road-to-xanaduthe-invisible-college.html

Assignment Desk: http://www.bradford-delong.com/assignment-desk.html

+ + + +

I am looking for somebody to write something to tell me what I should think—these days about website (re)design, and the assorted and related topics that I think of as "The Road to Xanadu" and "The Invisible College".

It is a truth universally acknowledged that any organization with a website that has not been redesigned in two years will find itself thinking about starting yet another website redesign process. Hence my throat clearing for http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/what-you-need-to-read-today-reading-reihan-salams-why-i-signed-up-for-obamacare-hoisted-from-my-archives.html yesterday and my hoisting of http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/07/should-read-well-its-been-two-more-years-ezra-klein-2015-i-have-sat-down-a-couple-of-times-to-write-up-what.html today...

Procrastination on July 14, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Ezra Klein (2015): "I have sat down a couple of times to write up what's worked and what's failed at Vox... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/a-very-brief-sokratic-dialogue-on-website-redesign.html
• Austin Frakt: Don’t Assume That Private Insurance Is Better Than Medicaid: "The RAND study... shows... people are terrible discriminators of what care is needed and what’s not... http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/dont-assume-that-private-insurance-is-better-than-medicaid/
• Martin Wolf: Britain is incapable of managing Brexit and calamity will follow: "The UK once had a deserved reputation for pragmatic and stable politics... https://www.ft.com/content/bf0025aa-6720-11e7-8526-7b38dcaef614
• Jeff Mackie-Mason: Scholarly Publishing Landscape: "We are optimistic about our ability to collaborate and partner to achieve a sustainable open publishing universe... http://www.lib.berkeley.edu/scholarly-communication/publishing/landscape
• IGM Forum: Inflation Target http://www.igmchicago.org/surveys/inflation-target:

Should-Read: Well? It's been two more years!

Ezra Klein (2015): "I have sat down a couple of times to write up what's worked and what's failed at Vox... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/08/a-very-brief-sokratic-dialogue-on-website-redesign.html

Procrastinating on July 13, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Nick Bunker: Are economic boom-and-bust cycles stronger when capital is more available? http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/are-economic-boom-and-bust-cycles-stronger-when-capital-is-more-available/
• Jacob Levy: The Sovereign Myth: "The sense of control that is often attributed to voters in the olden days was really a sense of satisfaction with outcomes... https://niskanencenter.org/blog/sovereign-myth/
• Salvatore Morelli: Is growing inequality hurting our economies?: "The recent 2007–2008 collapse of the global financial system naturally acted as a catalyst for growing concerns around the increasing dispersion of economic resources within most advanced economies... http://equitablegrowth.org/research-analysis/is-growing-inequality-hurting-our-economies/
• Martin Sandbu: Globalisation goes on without those who want to get off: "The EU, Japan and Canada keep the economic openness show on the road... https://www.ft.com/content/97582468-5fc7-11e7-8814-0ac7eb84e5f1
• Koichi Hamada: The Rebirth of the TPP: "Jagdish Bhagwati said... 'the TPP was a bit like allowing people to play golf in a club, but only if they also attended a particular church'... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/tpp-revival-japan-us-by-koichi-hamada-2017-06
• Stefan Klasen et al.: Inequality - worldwide trends and current debates: "Income inequality has been rising in many developing countries since the 1980s..." https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/142156/1/86139593X.pdf
• Doug Campbell: Douglas L. Campbell: In the Idiocy of Kevin Warsh: More Evidence for the 'Self-Induced Paralysis' Thesis: "I believe it is clear that the main reason the economy has been growing slowly since the financial crisis is overly tight monetary policy... http://douglaslcampbell.blogspot.ru/2017/07/in-idiocy-of-kevin-warsh-more-evidence.html

My Little Golden Book of Neoconservatism: Hoisted from 2007

Hoisted from 2007: My Little Golden Book of Neoconservatism http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/07/my-little-golde.html: Jeff Weintraub worries that people don't know what neoconservatives are... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/07/my-little-golde.html

...Jeff Weintraub: "Neocons," "very liberal Communists," and other scare-words: As Patrick Porter correctly points out, "neocon" (or "neoconservative") is expanding into an all-purpose term of abuse without much concrete content, historical specificity, or political substance.... This increasingly promiscuous use of the increasingly elastic scare-word "neocon" reminds one of the equally promiscuous way many right-wingers used to call anyone they didn't like a "communist."... [T]he word "liberal" often serves a similar function in some right-wing circles ...... though that's not entirely new, either. Back in 1973 Martha Mitchell, the wife of Nixon's Attorney-General John Mitchell, said that her husband often warned against the threat posed by the "very liberal Communists"...

I think I have the answers. Here are what I think are good takes on the neoconservative ideas and their vicissitudes, and on the neoconservatives--my takes and others':

Ten Years Ago at Grasping Reality: July 5-12, 2007

Most Worth Reading:

• Note to Self: The Next Time I Teach Economics 101b... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/07/note-to-self-th.html: Some model-building:: J. Bradford DeLong (2007), "INCOMPLETE DRAFT: Notes on Antitrust Policy and Optimal Innovation in a Model of Productive Variety" http://delong.typepad.com/pdf/20070709_varieties_antitrust.pdf...

• My Little Golden Book of Neoconservatism http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/07/my-little-golde.html

• China and Economic Growth: Hoisted from the Archives (What I Am Thinking About Right Now Department) http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/07/china-and-econo.html

Procrastinating on July 11, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Fifteen Theses on “The Wealth of Humans” and “After Piketty” http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/fifteen-theses-on-the-wealth-of-humans-and-after-piketty/
• Atif Mian, Amir Sufi, and Emil Verner: How do credit supply shocks affect the real economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s: "We explore the 1982 to 1992 business cycle in the United States... http://equitablegrowth.org/working-papers/how-credit-supply-shocks-affect-the-economy/
• Blythe George: “Them old guys… they knew what to do”: Examining the impact of industry collapse on two tribal reservations: "Little is known about the impact of industry decline on life outcomes on tribal reservations... http://equitablegrowth.org/working-papers/industry-collapse-tribal-reservations/
• William J. Collins and Marianne H. Wanamaker: Up from slavery? African American intergenerational economic mobility since 1880: "Building new datasets to study the late 19th and early 20th century and combining them with modern data to cover the mid-to late 20th century... http://equitablegrowth.org/working-papers/african-american-intergenerational-mobility/
• Gillian Tett: Donald Trump’s tariffs would do little for American workers: "Robots will be the real winners if US president goes ahead with curbs on steel imports... https://www.ft.com/content/cd7df564-5c15-11e7-b553-e2df1b0c3220
• Dani Rodrik: Economics of the populist backlash: The populist backlash to globalisation should not have come as a surprise, in light of economic history and economic theory... http://voxeu.org/article/economics-populist-backlash
• Matthew Yglesias: On Twitter: "Nostalgia-drenched anti-intellectual populism can be a cause rather than a consequence of community economic decline" https://twitter.com/mattyglesias/status/884438584467521537
• Nouriel Roubini: The New Abnormal in Monetary Policy: "Financial markets are starting to get rattled by the winding down of unconventional monetary policies in many advanced economies... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/unconventional-monetary-policy-new-normal-by-nouriel-roubini-2017-07
• Paul Krugman: When Was The Golden Age Of Conservative Intellectuals?: "Bret Stephens’s... [on] the intellectual decline of conservatism... the modern degeneracy... https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/07/09/when-was-the-golden-age-of-conservative-intellectuals/?smid=tw-share&_r=0
• Emily Gee: Coverage Losses by State for the Senate Health Care Repeal Bill: "The Center for American Progress has estimated how many Americans would lose coverage by state and congressional district based on the CBO’s projections... https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/news/2017/06/27/435112/coverage-losses-state-senate-health-care-repeal-bill/
• David Autor and Anna Salomons: Does Productivity Growth Threaten Employment?: "Is productivity growth inimical to employment?... https://www.ecbforum.eu/uploads/originals/2017/speakers/papers/D_Autor_A_Salomons_Does_productivity_growth_threaten_employment_Final_Draft_20170619.pdf
• Larry Summers: Donald Trump’s alarming G20 performance: "the content of the [of the G-20] communiqué [is] a confirmation of the breakdown of international order that many have feared since the election of Donald Trump... https://www.ft.com/content/ea2849ea-6335-11e7-8814-0ac7eb84e5f1

Fifteen Theses on "The Wealth of Humans" and "After Piketty"

Notes for the July 11, 2017 Research on Tap http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/06/equitable-growth-research-on-tap-after-piketty-tue-jul-11-2017-at-500-pm.html event:

• Ryan Avent (2016): The Wealth of Humans: Work, Power, and Status in the Twenty-first Century http://amzn.to/2t9TtWe
• Heather Boushey, J. Bradford DeLong, and Marshall Steinbaum: After Piketty: The Agenda for Economics and Inequality http://amzn.to/2t9UI7y

Meditations on Ryan Avent:

Ryan Avent: What will happen to 'The Wealth of Humans'? http://www.aei.org/publication/the-wealth-of-humans-a-qa-with-ryan-avent/: "This really dramatic technological change... the digital revolution... is adding hugely to the amount of effective labor that’s available to firms.... A lot of routine tasks in factories and in offices... [to] be automated.... High-skilled jobs... use these new technologies to do work that used to require a lot more people to do and in the process are displacing workers... enormous, abundant labor.... Employer[s] with... huge reservoir[s] of willing workers at very low wages... say.... "I don’t need to invest in this labor-saving technology.... replace my cashiers with automated checkout... replace the people moving boxes in the warehouse with robots". And so you get this sort of self-limiting technological change.... The more powerful the digital revolution... the more people... looking for low-wage work... the less of an interest firms have in using machines to replace them..."

Links for the Week of July 9, 2017

Must-Reads:

• Cardiff Garcia: Slower US inflation isn’t just the result of “transitory” factors: "Despite cautionary remarks from a few of its dovish members, the Federal Reserve seems determined to continue uninterrupted down its course of gradual policy tightening... https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/07/07/2191021/slower-us-inflation-isnt-just-the-result-of-transitory-factors/
• Pedro Nicolaci da Costa: Income gap between upper-middle class and very rich: "Destabilizing levels of income inequality, once a problem reserved for developing nations, is now a defining social and political issue in the United States... http://www.businessinsider.com/income-gap-between-upper-middle-class-and-very-rich-2017-7
• Laurent Bach, Laurent Calvet, and Paolo Sodini: Risk, return, and skill in the portfolios of the [Swedish] wealthy: "Administrative data... the wealthy indeed earn higher returns on their asset portfolios... http://voxeu.org/article/risk-return-and-skill-portfolios-wealthy
• Nick Bunker: On Twitter: "Prime-age (25-54) EPOP up to 78.5%, Prime-age LFPR up as well to 81.6%..." https://twitter.com/nick_bunker/status/883302743401799680
• Roy Elis, Stephen Haber, and Jordan Horrillo: Climate, Geography, and the Evolution of Economic and Political Systems https://economics.barnard.edu/sites/default/files/elis_haber_and_horrillo_march_25_2017.pdf: "The agricultural economies of the hinterlands of the largest city in every country or proto-country circa 1750 predict roughly half of the variance in countries’ per capita GDP today and one-fifth of the variance in countries’ levels of democracy today...
• James Hamilton: Are we in a new inflation regime?: "I’m not saying the Phillips Curve has no basis in facts... http://econbrowser.com/archives/2017/07/are-we-in-a-new-inflation-regime
• Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca: Kansas or California?: "Donald Trump and congressional Republicans[']... claims are baseless... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/increase-earned-income-credit-and-minimum-wage-by-laura-tyson-and-lenny-mendonca-2017-07
• Dylan Matthews: What’s the point of an anti-immigrant left?: "Beinart’s policy argument is... mistaken... https://www.vox.com/2017/7/2/15847840/beinart-atlantic-left-immigration
• Paul Krugman: Oh! What a Lovely Trade War: "I’m not making a purist case for free trade here... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/opinion/trump-trade-war.html?_r=0

Procrastinating on July 9, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Arnold Kling vs. Brad DeLong on the New Deal: Hoisted from 2007 | Equitable Growth http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/arnold-kling-vs-brad-delong-on-the-new-deal-hoisted-from-2007/
• Equitable Growth: Equitable Growth’s Jobs Day Graphs: June 2017 Report Edition: "The prime-age employment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 78.5 percent in June. Employment is still recovering and looks to have room to run..." http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/equitable-growths-jobs-day-graphs-june-2017-report-edition/
• Nick Bunker: Weekend reading: “Post-Jobs Day” edition | Equitable Growth http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/weekend-reading-post-jobs-day-edition/
• Cardiff Garcia: Slower US inflation isn’t just the result of “transitory” factors: "Despite cautionary remarks from a few of its dovish members, the Federal Reserve seems determined to continue uninterrupted down its course of gradual policy tightening... https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/07/07/2191021/slower-us-inflation-isnt-just-the-result-of-transitory-factors/
• Pedro Nicolaci da Costa: Income gap between upper-middle class and very rich: "Destabilizing levels of income inequality, once a problem reserved for developing nations, is now a defining social and political issue in the United States... http://www.businessinsider.com/income-gap-between-upper-middle-class-and-very-rich-2017-7
• Laurent Bach, Laurent Calvet, and Paolo Sodini: Risk, return, and skill in the portfolios of the [Swedish] wealthy: "Administrative data... the wealthy indeed earn higher returns on their asset portfolios... http://voxeu.org/article/risk-return-and-skill-portfolios-wealthy
• Nick Bunker: On Twitter: "Prime-age (25-54) EPOP up to 78.5%, Prime-age LFPR up as well to 81.6%..." https://twitter.com/nick_bunker/status/883302743401799680
• Brian Dow and Dean Baker: Obamacare: Big Problem in Republican States: "The lack of competition in the exchanges is a serious problem... http://cepr.net/blogs/cepr-blog/the-collapse-of-obamacare-big-problem-in-republican-states
• Roy Elis, Stephen Haber, and Jordan Horrillo: Climate, Geography, and the Evolution of Economic and Political Systems https://economics.barnard.edu/sites/default/files/elis_haber_and_horrillo_march_25_2017.pdf: "The agricultural economies of the hinterlands of the largest city in every country or proto-country circa 1750 predict roughly half of the variance in countries’ per capita GDP today and one-fifth of the variance in countries’ levels of democracy today...
• Diane Coyle: Economics in Transition: Adaptive Markets: "Adaptive Markets, by MIT’s Andrew Lo, gives a superb and fascinating account of thinking on the frontier... https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/economics-in-transition-by-diane-coyle-2017-06
• Martin Sandbu: Central bank rush to ‘normalise’ monetary policy is ill-advised: "An understanding to “normalise” together, if one exists, would not be a suicide pact... https://www.ft.com/content/3ad81df6-6161-11e7-8814-0ac7eb84e5f1
• David Cashin, Jamie Lenney, Byron Lutz, and William Peterman: Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand in the U.S. Before, During and Following the Great Recession: "We examine the effect of federal and subnational fiscal policy on aggregate demand in the U.S. by introducing the fiscal effect (FE) measure... https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/feds/files/2017061pap.pdf

Procrastinating on July 6, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Public Spheres for the Trump Age: Fresh at Project Syndicate | Equitable Growth http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/public-spheres-for-the-trump-age-fresh-at-project-syndicate/
• Hoisted from the 2007 Archives: Clueless Brad DeLong Was Clueless: Central Banking and the Great Moderation http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/hoisted-from-the-2007-archives-clueless-brad-delong-was-clueless-central-banking-and-the-great-moderation/
• Josh Barro: GOP healthcare bill will poll badly no matter what: "Now I have to call those providers' offices and get duplicate receipts and upload them and allow seven to 10 days for processing... http://www.businessinsider.com/gop-healthcare-bill-polls-bad-changes-2017-6
• Patrick Iber: On Twitter: ".@davidsess has a phenomenal review/essay of @dandrezner's The Ideas Industry in the latest @NewRepublic... https://twitter.com/PatrickIber/status/874438806287659008
• Paul Krugman (2015): When Values Disappear: "Back in the 60s and 70s... there was much talk about the disintegration of... African-American values... https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/03/11/when-values-disappear/
• James Hamilton: Are we in a new inflation regime?: "I’m not saying the Phillips Curve has no basis in facts... http://econbrowser.com/archives/2017/07/are-we-in-a-new-inflation-regime
• Laura Tyson and Lenny Mendonca: Kansas or California?: "Donald Trump and congressional Republicans[']... claims are baseless... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/increase-earned-income-credit-and-minimum-wage-by-laura-tyson-and-lenny-mendonca-2017-07
• Dylan Matthews: What’s the point of an anti-immigrant left?: "Beinart’s policy argument is... mistaken... https://www.vox.com/2017/7/2/15847840/beinart-atlantic-left-immigration
• Paul Krugman: Oh! What a Lovely Trade War: "I’m not making a purist case for free trade here... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/03/opinion/trump-trade-war.html?_r=0

Procrastinating on July 3, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Jay C. Shambaugh: On Twitter: "More evidence of slowing inflation lately: core pce prices up just 0.1 p.p. in May. 12 month change 1.4% (down from 1.6% in 12 months prior..." https://twitter.com/JayCShambaugh/status/880804850002526208
• Doruk Cengiz, Arindrajit Dube, Attila Lindner, and Ben Zipperer>: The effect of minimum wages on the total number of jobs: Evidence from the United States using a bunching estimator: "We estimate the total impact of the minimum wage on a ected employment by comparing the excess number of jobs just above the new minimum wage... http://www.sole-jole.org/17722.pdf
• Martin Sandbu: The minimum wage wars are heating up: "The best thing Seattle could do now is to push ahead with its full experiment... https://www.ft.com/content/365f7e10-5d72-11e7-b553-e2df1b0c3220
• Steve Jobs (2007): Introducing iPhone
• Jay C. Shambaugh: On Twitter: Slowing Inflation: "More evidence of slowing inflation lately: core pce prices up just 0.1 p.p. in May. 12 month change 1.4% (down from 1.6% in 12 months prior..." https://twitter.com/JayCShambaugh/status/880804850002526208:
• Ezra Klein: Conservatives believe Medicaid is worthless, so slashing it is harmless. They’re wrong: "Expanding Medicaid saves lives at a cost of $327,000 to $867,000 per life saved... https://www.vox.com/health-care/2017/6/29/15885796/medicaid-senate-gop-health-bill-benefits-bcra
• Ezra Klein: It turns out the liberal caricature of conservatism is correct: "It’s depressing. But it’s true: Marc Thiessen, the George W. Bush speechwriter... is aghast at the Senate GOP’s health care bill... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/29/15892504/liberal-caricature-conservatism-correct
• Sarah Kliff: On Twitter: "A stunning pair of charts of the CBO report from my colleague @alv9n https://t.co/nZHz8OMurV" https://twitter.com/sarahkliff/status/879460806198538241
• Atul Gewande: How the Senate’s Health-Care Bill Threatens the Nation's Health: "The Senate bill would also ultimately make people who buy insurance on the A.C.A. exchanges—people without coverage from an employer or from Medicaid—pay far more money for far worse coverage... http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-senates-health-care-bill-threatens-nations-health

Links for the Week of July 2, 2017

Must-Reads:

• Jay C. Shambaugh: On Twitter: Slowing Inflation: "More evidence of slowing inflation lately: core pce prices up just 0.1 p.p. in May. 12 month change 1.4% (down from 1.6% in 12 months prior..." https://twitter.com/JayCShambaugh/status/880804850002526208:
• Ezra Klein: Conservatives believe Medicaid is worthless, so slashing it is harmless. They’re wrong: "Expanding Medicaid saves lives at a cost of $327,000 to $867,000 per life saved... https://www.vox.com/health-care/2017/6/29/15885796/medicaid-senate-gop-health-bill-benefits-bcra
• Ezra Klein: It turns out the liberal caricature of conservatism is correct: "It’s depressing. But it’s true: Marc Thiessen, the George W. Bush speechwriter... is aghast at the Senate GOP’s health care bill... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/29/15892504/liberal-caricature-conservatism-correct
• Tara Golshan, Dylan Scott, and Jeff Stein: We asked 8 Senate Republicans to explain what their health bill is trying to do: "Vox asked GOP senators to explain their hopes for it. Who will benefit from the legislation? What problems is this bill trying to solve?.. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/16/15810524/senate-ahca-explain-please
• Tierney Sneed: 5 Points On The Brutal CBO Score Senate Republicans Must Overcome: "The new score offers Senate GOPers nowhere to hide... http://talkingpointsmemo.com/fivepoints/senate-repeal-bill-cbo-score-politics
• Nicholas Bagley: Crazy waivers: the Senate bill invites states to gut important health insurance rules: "The bill goes further to grease the wheels for waivers... https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6/23/15862268/waivers-federalism-senate-bill-essential-benefits
• David Anderson: Reading the BCRA CBO Score: "The Congressional Budget Office is due to release their score on the Senate’s BCRA bill at some point today. Here are a few things to remember as you read the score... https://www.balloon-juice.com/2017/06/26/reading-the-bcra-cbo-score/
• Benjamin D. Sommers, Atul A. Gawande, and Katherine Baicker: Health Insurance Coverage and Health—What the Recent Evidence Tells Us: "Perhaps no research question better encapsulates this policy debate than, 'Does coverage save lives?... http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb1706645#.WUriDI_R7Z4

Procrastinating on June 28, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• After Piketty: Capital in the Twenty-First Century, Three Years Later http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/after-piketty-capital-in-the-twenty-first-century-three-years-later/
• ACA Repeal “Strong Opposition” Letter http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/aca-repeal-strong-opposition-letter/
• Rucker C. Johnson and C. Kirabo Jackson: REDUCING INEQUALITY THROUGH DYNAMIC COMPLEMENTARITY: EVIDENCE FROM HEAD START AND PUBLIC SCHOOL SPENDING: "We explore whether early childhood human-capital investments are complementary to those made later in life..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/06/should-read-rucker-c-johnson-and-c-kirabo-jackson-reducing-inequality-through-dynamic-complementarity-evidence-from.html
• Nick Bunker: EQUITY, EFFICIENCY AND EDUCATION SPENDING IN THE UNITED STATES: "Released today as part of the Equitable Growth Working Paper series... Rucker C. Johnson of the University of California-Berkeley and C. Kirabo Jackson..." http://www.bradford-delong.com/2017/06/should-read-nick-bunker-equity-efficiency-and-education-spending-in-the-united-states-released-today-as-part-of-the.html
• Sarah Kliff: On Twitter: "A stunning pair of charts of the CBO report from my colleague @alv9n https://t.co/nZHz8OMurV" https://twitter.com/sarahkliff/status/879460806198538241
• Atul Gewande: How the Senate’s Health-Care Bill Threatens the Nation's Health: "The Senate bill would also ultimately make people who buy insurance on the A.C.A. exchanges—people without coverage from an employer or from Medicaid—pay far more money for far worse coverage... http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-senates-health-care-bill-threatens-nations-health
• Erica Grieder: The GOP's 'Better Care' act is better than you think: "While the Affordable Care Act has surely helped millions of Americans... http://theweek.com/articles/707712/gops-better-care-act-better-than-think
• Scott Lemieux: Hacktacular!: "The New York Times has given op-ed space to Avik Roy, so he can prove that you can’t spell 'reformicon' without 'con'... http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/06/hacktacular-30
• Scott Lemieux: No Vote on TrumpCare In June: "This really is important... http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/06/no-vote-trumpcare-june
• Tara Golshan, Dylan Scott, and Jeff Stein: We asked 8 Senate Republicans to explain what their health bill is trying to do: "Vox asked GOP senators to explain their hopes for it. Who will benefit from the legislation? What problems is this bill trying to solve?.. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/16/15810524/senate-ahca-explain-please
• Ben Zipperer and John Schmitt: The “high road” Seattle labor market and the effects of the minimum wage increase: Data limitations and methodological problems bias new analysis of Seattle’s minimum wage increase: "Jardim et al. (2017), looks at the first two stages of a phased-in set of increases that will eventually take the minimum wage in the city to $15.00 per hour... http://www.epi.org/publication/the-high-road-seattle-labor-market-and-the-effects-of-the-minimum-wage-increase-data-limitations-and-methodological-problems-bias-new-analysis-of-seattles-minimum-wage-incr/
• David Brooks: The G.O.P. Rejects Conservatism: ""There is a structural flaw in modern capitalism... [a] gigantic trend [that] widens inequality, exacerbates social segmentation, fuels distrust and led to Donald Trump... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/27/opinion/the-gop-rejects-conservatism.html
• Tierney Sneed: 5 Points On The Brutal CBO Score Senate Republicans Must Overcome: "The new score offers Senate GOPers nowhere to hide... http://talkingpointsmemo.com/fivepoints/senate-repeal-bill-cbo-score-politics
• Lane Kenworthy and Ive Marx: In-Work Poverty in the United States: "In-work poverty became a prominent policy issue in the United States... http://ftp.iza.org/dp10638.pdf
• Diane Coyle: Economics in Transition: The End of Theory: "There has been a huge shift away from the reductionism of an older generation... to which Bookstaber has paid little attention... https://www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/economics-in-transition-by-diane-coyle-2017-06
• Larry Summers: Globalization Will Work If We Stop Catering To The Elite: "A wage subsidy works like this... http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/globalization-larry-summers_us_594b0440e4b0312cfb616164

Procrastinating on June 26, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Should-Read: Richard Peach and Charles Steindel: Low Productivity Growth: The Capital Formation Link: "Capital intensity... reflect[s] the effect of current and past physical investment on the growth of labor productivity... http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2017/06/low-productivity-growth-the-capital-formation-link.html
• Must-Read: Nicholas Bagley: Crazy waivers: the Senate bill invites states to gut important health insurance rules: "The bill goes further to grease the wheels for waivers... https://www.vox.com/the-big-idea/2017/6/23/15862268/waivers-federalism-senate-bill-essential-benefits
• Must-Read: David Anderson: Reading the BCRA CBO Score: "The Congressional Budget Office is due to release their score on the Senate’s BCRA bill at some point today. Here are a few things to remember as you read the score... https://www.balloon-juice.com/2017/06/26/reading-the-bcra-cbo-score/
• Must-Read: Benjamin D. Sommers, Atul A. Gawande, and Katherine Baicker: Health Insurance Coverage and Health—What the Recent Evidence Tells Us: "Perhaps no research question better encapsulates this policy debate than, 'Does coverage save lives?... http://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsb1706645#.WUriDI_R7Z4
• Must-Read: Minxin Pei: Xi Jinping’s war on the ‘financial crocodiles’ gathers pace: "Beijing will pass off a politically motivated purge as tough regulatory enforcement... https://www.ft.com/content/19810ea2-5814-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2
• Should-Read: Thucydides: ,History of the Peloponnesian War: "To hear this history recited, for that there be inserted in it no fables... http://www.perseus.tufts.edu/hopper/text?doc=Perseus%3Atext%3A1999.04.0105%3Abook%3D1%3Achapter%3D22

Links, etc., for the Week of June 26, 2017

Must-Read:

• Minxin Pei: Xi Jinping’s war on the ‘financial crocodiles’ gathers pace: "Beijing will pass off a politically motivated purge as tough regulatory enforcement... https://www.ft.com/content/19810ea2-5814-11e7-80b6-9bfa4c1f83d2
• CHM Live: Putting Your Finger On It: Creating the iPhone: "Nitin Ganatra, Scott Herz, and Hugo Fiennes in Conversation with John Markoff... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xDRdWFdsoQ&ab_channel=ComputerHistoryMuseum
• Nick Bunker: Is the Fed being misguided by the Phillips curve?: "Looking at the prime-age employment rate, the labor market might have a bit more tightening to do before wage growth is going to pick up significantly... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/is-the-fed-being-misguided-by-the-phillips-curve/
• Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch: New Evidence for a Lower New Normal in Interest Rates: "Inflation-indexed bond prices include a real term premium... face appreciable liquidity risk... http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2017/june/financial-market-evidence-for-lower-natural-interest-rate-r-star/
• Michael Reich, Sylvia Allegretto, and Anna Godoey: Seattle’s Minimum Wage Experience 2015-16: "Seattle implemented the first phase of its minimum wage law on April 1, 2015... http://irle.berkeley.edu/seattles-minimum-wage-experience-2015-16/
• Ben Thompson: Amazon’s New Customer: "the key to understanding the purchase of Whole Foods... is that Amazon is buying a customer—the first-and-best customer that will instantly bring its grocery efforts to scale... https://stratechery.com/2017/amazons-new-customer/

Worth Noting from Grasping Reality: March 2007

30 things worth noting and highlighting in that month of March 2007. The two highlights of the highlights are:

• More Journamalism (Time Magazine Edition) http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/03/more_journamali_2.html: Karen Tumulty of Time really wishes she didn't have to spend time listening to candidates talk about health care.... "After three very intense hours (plus) onstage moderating this health care forum, I really needed a massage and a margarita. Not in that order.... I suspected that my colleagues in the press filing center weren't entirely thrilled at spending a Saturday in Las Vegas this way...." Would it be asking too much to have Time replace Tumulty with somebody who actually likes learning about candidates thoughts and plans on health care? Rather than somebody who sounds like she is having a root canal?... 2007-03-25

• Un-Discourse Situations... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/03/undiscourse_sit.html: What is one to do? You watch a guy--Bob Solow--one of the smartest and most thoughtful people I know, having his intellectual impact neutralized by a guy--Kudlow--who really isn't in the intellectual inquiry business.... To the audience it looks like two cocksure economists who disagree for incomprehensible reasons. And my ten minute share will come too late to try to referee Solow-Kudlow in any fair, balanced, and effective way. It's an un-discourse situation: Kudlow doesn't acknowledge--may not know--the flaws in his chosen statistic. And I can't help wonder what Kudlow would be saying if a Democrat were president. It's an intellectual Gresham's Law in action... What can I do? I can blog about it... 2007-03-11

Procrastinating on June 25, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Alberto Alesina, Stefanie Stantcheva, Edoardo Teso: Intergenerational mobility and preferences for redistribution: "Americans are generally thought to view the economic system as fair and see wealth as a reward for ability and effort... http://voxeu.org/article/intergenerational-mobility-and-preferences-redistribution
• Brantly Callaway and William J. Collins: Unions, Workers, and Wages at the Peak of the American Labor Movement: "A novel dataset compiled from archival records... http://www.nber.org/papers/w23516.pdf
• Nick Bunker: Weekend reading: “If you liked those links, check out these” edition: "Discrimination in the U.S. labor market is a very real thing... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/weekend-reading-if-you-liked-those-links-check-out-these-edition/
• CHM Live: Putting Your Finger On It: Creating the iPhone: "Nitin Ganatra, Scott Herz, and Hugo Fiennes in Conversation with John Markoff... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5xDRdWFdsoQ&ab_channel=ComputerHistoryMuseum
• Nick Bunker: Is the Fed being misguided by the Phillips curve?: "Looking at the prime-age employment rate, the labor market might have a bit more tightening to do before wage growth is going to pick up significantly... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/is-the-fed-being-misguided-by-the-phillips-curve/
• Sergio Espuelas: The inequality trap. A comparative analysis of social spending between 1880 and 1930: "Using social transfers as an indicator of redistribution and three alternative proxies for inequality... http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-0289.12062/full
• Jens H.E. Christensen and Glenn D. Rudebusch: New Evidence for a Lower New Normal in Interest Rates: "Inflation-indexed bond prices include a real term premium... face appreciable liquidity risk... http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2017/june/financial-market-evidence-for-lower-natural-interest-rate-r-star/
• Michael Reich, Sylvia Allegretto, and Anna Godoey: Seattle’s Minimum Wage Experience 2015-16: "Seattle implemented the first phase of its minimum wage law on April 1, 2015... http://irle.berkeley.edu/seattles-minimum-wage-experience-2015-16/
• Eugene Wei (2012): Amazon, Apple, and the beauty of low margins: "Amazon's core retail business is, I'd argue, still very secure... http://www.eugenewei.com/blog/2012/11/28/amazon-and-margins

Procrastinating on June 20, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Hoisted from the Archives from 2007: How Supply-Side Economics Trickled Down… http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/hoisted-from-the-archives-from-2007-how-supply-side-economics-trickled-down/
• Donald A. Yerxa: AN INTERVIEW WITH BRYAN WARD-PERKINS ON THE FALL OF ROME http://www.webcitation.org/6O3GYBfS1?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.bu.edu%2Fhistoric%2Fhs%2Fperkins.pdf: "'AT THE HOUR OF MIDNIGHT THE SALERIAN GATE WAS silently opened, and the inhabitants were awakened by the tremendous sound of the Gothic trumpet...
• Heather Boushey: The unfortunate power of stereotypes: "If stereotypes lead judges to snap judgements that are racially biased... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/the-unfortunate-power-of-stereotypes/
• Nick Bunker: Weekend Reading: Shifting Targets Edition: "Some critics of the disability insurance system in the United States think it is too easy to access... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/weekend-reading-shifting-targets-edition/
• Ben Thompson: Amazon’s New Customer: "the key to understanding the purchase of Whole Foods... is that Amazon is buying a customer—the first-and-best customer that will instantly bring its grocery efforts to scale... https://stratechery.com/2017/amazons-new-customer/
• Mark Thoma: Trump’s Apprenticeships are Based upon a Problem That Doesn’t Exist: "The evidence... points to a skills mismatch... http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2017/06/19/Trump-s-Apprenticeships-are-Based-upon-Problem-Doesn-t-Exist
• Izabella Kaminska: On the rise of unproductive entrepreneurs like Travis Kalanick https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/06/15/2190201/on-the-rise-of-unproductive-entrepreneurs-like-travis-kalanick/: "Robert E. Litan and Ian Hathaway... citing the work of William Baumol, who passed away last month...
• Paul Krugman: A Finger Exercise On Hyperglobalization: "I find myself trying to find simple ways to talk about 'hyperglobalization'... https://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2017/06/14/a-finger-exercise-on-hyperglobalization/
• David Glasner: FIFTEEN THOUSAND WORDS ON TEMPORARY EQUILIBRIUM, EXPECTATIONS, AND CONSISTENCY OF PLANS
• Neel Kashkari: Why I Dissented Again: "The economy is sending mixed signals: a tight labor market and weakening inflation... https://medium.com/@neelkashkari/why-i-dissented-again-b8579ab664b7

Links for the Week of June 19, 2017

Must-Reads:

• David Glasner: FIFTEEN THOUSAND WORDS ON TEMPORARY EQUILIBRIUM, EXPECTATIONS, AND CONSISTENCY OF PLANS
• Neel Kashkari: Why I Dissented Again: "The economy is sending mixed signals: a tight labor market and weakening inflation... https://medium.com/@neelkashkari/why-i-dissented-again-b8579ab664b7
• Janet Yellen and Nancy Marchall Genzer: Janet Yellen Interested in Reevaluating 2% https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4673824/janet-yellen-interested-reevaluating-2: "Nancy Marchall Genzer, Marketplace: 'Recently, a group of economists sent the Fed a letter...
• Lawrence Summers: 5 reasons the Fed may be making a mistake http://delong.typepad.com/summers5-reasons.zip: "The... paradigm... is highly problematic.  Much better would be a “shoot only when you see the whites of the eyes of inflation” paradigm...
• David Grabowski, Jonathan Gruber, and Vincent Mor: You’re Probably Going to Need Medicaid: "Imagine your mother needs to move into a nursing home... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/13/opinion/youre-probably-going-to-need-medicaid.html?ref=opinion&_r=0
• Barry Ritholtz: Tax Reform Is Dead: "The long-awaited 'pivot towards being presidential' hasn’t arrived, and by all indications never will... http://ritholtz.com/2017/06/tax-reform-dead/
• Nick Bunker: On Twitter: "That staffer was probably looking for a long time..."
• Robert Waldmann (2007): The Simple Analytics of Progressive Income Redistribution: "Economists generally agree that redistribution reduces money-metric welfare... http://rjwaldmann.blogspot.com/2007/06/possible-efficiency-gains-due-to-taxes.html

Procrastinating on June 16, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Brad DeLong (2007): Tom Grubisich Is One Unhappy Camper: "Tom Grubisich... a former Washington Post reporter and editor [says]... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/05/tom_grubisich_i.html
• Kavya Vaghul: Conservation easements and tax policies in the United States: "Deductions for conservation easement donations are taken by taxpayers in states that have small shares of conserved land... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/conservation-easements-and-tax-policies-in-the-united-states/
• Bridget Ansel: A research roundup on unpredictable schedules in the United States: "For Americans with a 9-to-5 job, it can be hard to imagine the life of a worker with an unpredictable, constantly shifting schedule... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/a-research-roundup-on-unpredictable-schedules-in-the-united-states/
• Janet Yellen and Nancy Marchall Genzer: Janet Yellen Interested in Reevaluating 2% https://www.c-span.org/video/?c4673824/janet-yellen-interested-reevaluating-2: "Nancy Marchall Genzer, Marketplace: 'Recently, a group of economists sent the Fed a letter...
• Lawrence Summers: 5 reasons the Fed may be making a mistake http://delong.typepad.com/summers5-reasons.zip: "The... paradigm... is highly problematic.  Much better would be a “shoot only when you see the whites of the eyes of inflation” paradigm...
• David Cutler and Emily Gee: Coverage Losses Under the ACA Repeal Bill for Congressional Districts in All States: "Within a decade, on average, an additional 55,000 more individuals in each congressional district, or nearly 8 percent... would lack coverage... https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/news/2017/03/21/428914/coverage-losses-aca-repeal-bill-congressional-districts-states/
• Dodge Cahan and Niklas Potrafke: The Democratic-Republican Presidential Growth Gap and the Partisan Balance of the State Governments: "Higher economic growth was generated during Democratic presidencies compared to Republican presidencies... http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/cesceswps/_5f6517.htm
• David Grabowski, Jonathan Gruber, and Vincent Mor: You’re Probably Going to Need Medicaid: "Imagine your mother needs to move into a nursing home... https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/13/opinion/youre-probably-going-to-need-medicaid.html?ref=opinion&_r=0
• Laura Tyson: Labor Markets in the Age of Automation: "Skill-biased and labor-displacing intelligent machines and automation drive income inequality in several other ways... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/automation-labor-market-inequality-by-laura-tyson-2017-06
• Barry Ritholtz: Tax Reform Is Dead: "The long-awaited 'pivot towards being presidential' hasn’t arrived, and by all indications never will... http://ritholtz.com/2017/06/tax-reform-dead/

Should-Read: Brad DeLong (2007): Tom Grubisich Is One Unhappy Camper: "Tom Grubisich... a former Washington Post reporter and editor [says]... http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/05/tom_grubisich_i.html

Procrastinating on June 13, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• No, It Is Really Not Harder to Make the Case for Free Trade These Days… http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/no-it-is-really-not-harder-to-make-the-case-for-free-trade-these-days/
• I Am Heartened by the Improvement in the Prime-Age Employment Rate. Now Let Us Let It Continue Rather than Stopping It… http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/i-am-heartened-by-the-improvement-in-the-prime-age-employment-rate-now-let-us-let-it-continue-rather-than-stopping-it/
• Nick Bunker: Who loses disability insurance when it’s harder to apply?: "What actually happened when the closest Social Security field offices closed and the cost of applying increased?... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/who-loses-disability-insurance-when-its-harder-to-apply/
• William J. Collins and Marianne H. Wanamaker: Up from slavery? African American intergenerational economic mobility since 1880: "We document the intergenerational mobility of black and white American men from 1880 through 2000... http://equitablegrowth.org/working-papers/african-american-intergenerational-mobility/
• Nick Bunker: Time for the Fed to look beyond 2 percent target inflation?: "The idea that a stable and credible inflation target must be 2 percent is an accident of history... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/time-for-the-fed-to-look-beyond-2-percent-target-inflation/
• Nick Bunker: On Twitter: "That staffer was probably looking for a long time..."
• Robert Waldmann (2007): The Simple Analytics of Progressive Income Redistribution: "Economists generally agree that redistribution reduces money-metric welfare... http://rjwaldmann.blogspot.com/2007/06/possible-efficiency-gains-due-to-taxes.html
• B.G.: Because I said so: Why the Fed is likely to raise rates, despite low inflation: "Like a parent teaching a child it means business, the Fed may feel it must hike to preserve its credibility with financial markets... http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2017/06/because-i-said-so
• Cardiff Garcia: US capex, investment, and growth—re-re-upped: "Srinivas Thiruvadanthai... has passed along his interesting new note about capex... https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2017/06/06/2189480/us-capex-investment-and-growth/
• Dan Drezner: Why it is impossible for Donald Trump to rise to adequacy: "A few days ago I suggested that Trump’s NATO speech was a powerful signal that we had seen the limits of adult supervision at the White House... http://delong.typepad.com/drezner-chaos-muppet.zip
• Josh Bivens: Is 2 percent too low?: Rethinking the Fed’s arbitrary inflation target to avoid another Great Recession: "The end of 2017 will mark 10 years since the beginning of the Great Recession... http://www.epi.org/publication/is-2-percent-too-low/

Ten Years Ago in Grasping Reality: June 11-13, 2007

Two very much worth highlighting and hoisting:

• Is It Really Harder to Make the Case for Free Trade These Days? http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2007/04/is_it_really_ha.html: I think I have answers: (1) The kinds of win-win deals that Paul says we don't make are in fact deals that Democratic presidents do make--when they aren't blocked from making them, that is...
• FoucaultAlthusserDerridaJameson http://www.bradford-delong.com/2007/06/foucaultalthuss.html

Links for the Week of June 13, 2017

Must-Reads:

• Josh Bivens: Is 2 percent too low?: Rethinking the Fed’s arbitrary inflation target to avoid another Great Recession: "The end of 2017 will mark 10 years since the beginning of the Great Recession... http://www.epi.org/publication/is-2-percent-too-low/
• EPI: The Color of Law Tickets, Thu, Jun 8, 2017 at 11:00 AM: "On Thursday, June 8th the Economic Policy Institute and the Poverty & Race Research Action Council present Richard Rothstein as he discusses his new book, The Color of Law: A Forgotten History of How Our Government Segregated America... https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-color-of-law-tickets-34478748866
• Larry Summers: How elite universities meet the challenges of the Trump era: "Rebecca Blumenstein... our conversation focused on how elite universities are meeting the challenges of the Trump era... https://www.ft.com/content/99cc63cd-7e59-3390-a052-6fcb654eb161
• Narayana Kocherlakota: The Fed Needs a Better Inflation Target: "A higher goal, with more public support, would benefit the central bank and the economy... https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-08/republicans-weren-t-smiling-about-comey-or-trump
• Tim Carmody (2010): Stock and Flow: "Stock and flow is the master metaphor for media today... http://snarkmarket.com/2010/4890
• Sarah Kliff: Nevada's legislature just passed a radical plan to let anybody sign up for Medicaid: "Nevada’s bill... just four pages... would allow any state resident... to buy into the state Medicaid program... under the name the Nevada Care Plan... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/6/15731622/nevada-medicaid-for-all
• Mark Thoma: The More Trump Fails, the Better Off We’ll Be: "The Trump administration has gone to war against independent sources of information that pose a challenge to its policy goals and the narratives... http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2017/06/05/More-Trump-Fails-Better-We-ll-Be
• Financial Times: The needless urge for higher borrowing costs: "Talk of ‘normalising’ interest rates betrays a mistaken belief... https://www.ft.com/content/b752f7dc-4782-11e7-8d27-59b4dd6296b8
• Zack Beauchamp: What If It Happened Here?: "The events of the past 16 years have shown that presidents have extraordinary power to fundamentally alter the laws and culture of the US after a terror attack... https://www.vox.com/world/2017/5/26/15681154/trump-terrorism-manchester-islam

Procrastinating on June 10, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• My Sections: As Delivered: Fed Up Rethink 2% Inflation Target Blue-Ribbon Commission Conference Call http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/my-sections-as-delivered-fed-up-rethink-2-inflation-target-blue-ribbon-commission-conference-call/
• Rethink 2% http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/rethink-2/
• Why the Fed Should Rethink Its 2%/Year No-Lookback Inflation Target http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/why-the-fed-should-rethink-its-2year-no-lookback-inflation-target/
• “Populism” or “Neo-Fascism”?: Rectification of Names Blogging http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/populism-or-neo-fascism-rectification-of-names-blogging/
• Kavya Vaghul: Weekend reading: the “real-live experiment” edition: "Monetary policy can help increase consumption through redistributing income across households...
• EPI: The Color of Law Tickets, Thu, Jun 8, 2017 at 11:00 AM: "On Thursday, June 8th the Economic Policy Institute and the Poverty & Race Research Action Council present Richard Rothstein as he discusses his new book, The Color of Law: A Forgotten History of How Our Government Segregated America... https://www.eventbrite.com/e/the-color-of-law-tickets-34478748866
• Noah Smith: Actually good Silicon Valley critiques?: "Suppose we did want to criticize Silicon Valley and not end up looking foolish... http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/actually-good-silicon-valley-critiques.html
• Larry Summers: How elite universities meet the challenges of the Trump era: "Rebecca Blumenstein... our conversation focused on how elite universities are meeting the challenges of the Trump era... https://www.ft.com/content/99cc63cd-7e59-3390-a052-6fcb654eb161
• Narayana Kocherlakota: The Fed Needs a Better Inflation Target: "A higher goal, with more public support, would benefit the central bank and the economy... https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-06-08/republicans-weren-t-smiling-about-comey-or-trump
• Tim Carmody (2010): Stock and Flow: "Stock and flow is the master metaphor for media today... http://snarkmarket.com/2010/4890

Procrastinating on June 7, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• On the Negative Information Revealed by Marvin Goodfriend’s “I Don’t Teach IS-LM” http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/on-the-negative-information-revealed-by-marvin-goodfriends-i-dont-teach-is-lm/
• Sarah Kliff: Nevada's legislature just passed a radical plan to let anybody sign up for Medicaid: "Nevada’s bill... just four pages... would allow any state resident... to buy into the state Medicaid program... under the name the Nevada Care Plan... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/6/6/15731622/nevada-medicaid-for-all
• Olivia P. Judson: The energy expansions of evolution: "The history of the life–Earth system can be divided into five ‘energetic’ epochs... https://www.nature.com/articles/s41559-017-0138
• Henry Farrell: The Strange Death of Anglo-American Liberalism: "The Financial Times... committed to free markets, but with a undertone that they had to have decent outcomes... http://crookedtimber.org/2017/05/31/the-strange-death-of-anglo-american-liberalism/
• Laura Panza and Jeffrey G. Williamson: Australian Squatters, Convicts, and Capitalists: Dividing Up a Fast-Growing Frontier Pie 1821-1871: "Compared with its nineteenth century competitors, Australian GDP per worker grew exceptionally fast... http://www.nber.org/papers/w23416
• (1995): Trade Policy and America’s Standard of Living: An Historical Perspective http://pages.ucsd.edu/~jlbroz/Courses/POLI142B/syllabus/delong.pdf: Before the Great Depression, the U.S. went through waves of protection and liberalization...
• Mark Thoma: The More Trump Fails, the Better Off We’ll Be: "The Trump administration has gone to war against independent sources of information that pose a challenge to its policy goals and the narratives... http://www.thefiscaltimes.com/Columns/2017/06/05/More-Trump-Fails-Better-We-ll-Be
• Financial Times: The needless urge for higher borrowing costs: "Talk of ‘normalising’ interest rates betrays a mistaken belief... https://www.ft.com/content/b752f7dc-4782-11e7-8d27-59b4dd6296b8
• Zack Beauchamp: What If It Happened Here?: "The events of the past 16 years have shown that presidents have extraordinary power to fundamentally alter the laws and culture of the US after a terror attack... https://www.vox.com/world/2017/5/26/15681154/trump-terrorism-manchester-islam
• Katia Porzecanski: Ray Dalio Is Changing His Mind About Donald Trump: "'When faced with the choices between what’s good for the whole and what’s good for the part, and between harmony and conflict, he has a strong tendency to choose the part and conflict... https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-05/dalio-concerned-by-consequences-of-trump-s-pursuit-of-conflict
• Nick Bunker: Monetary policy via income redistribution: "Combining these three redistribution channels... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/monetary-policy-via-income-redistribution/

Procrastinating on June 5, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Simon Wren-Lewis: GE2017 and the Stages of Leaver Grief: "The EU knows that No Deal would be a disaster for the UK... https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/2017/06/the-stages-of-leaver-grief.html
• Reuters: Fed's Harker Still Sees Two More Interest Rate Hikes in 2017: "Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank President Patrick Harker said on Friday that the U.S. central bank remains on track... https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/06/02/business/02reuters-usa-fed-harker.html
• Luciano Floridi: A fallacy that will hinder advances in artificial intelligence: "The best definition of AI was written in 1955 by US computer scientist John McCarthy and colleagues... https://www.ft.com/content/ee996846-4626-11e7-8d27-59b4dd6296b8

Links for the Week of June 4, 2011

Must-Reads:

• Luciano Floridi: A fallacy that will hinder advances in artificial intelligence: "The best definition of AI was written in 1955 by US computer scientist John McCarthy and colleagues... https://www.ft.com/content/ee996846-4626-11e7-8d27-59b4dd6296b8
• Dean Baker: Job Growth Slows Sharply: "the overall employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) dropp[ed] from 60.2 percent in April to 60.0 percent in May... http://cepr.net/data-bytes/jobs-bytes/jobs-2017-06
• Lael Brainard: Navigating the Different Signals from Inflation and Unemployment: "The labor market has continued to strengthen... https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20170530a.htm
• Samuel Osborne: Angela Merkel says Germany can no longer rely on Donald Trump's America: "'We Europeans must really take our destiny into our own hands'... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-donald-trump-germany-us-no-longer-rely-european-union-climate-change-g7-a7760486.html
• Gavyn Davies: The Fed’s Lowflation Dilemma: "The [last] two months together have left core CPI inflation 0.4 percentage points lower than expected... https://www.ft.com/content/b165f756-e4bf-3a70-880f-74474f6538fa

Weekend Reading: Leon Trotsky's Not-Entirely-Reliable-Narrator View of Lenin's New Economic Policy of the 1920s

Leon Trotsky's Not-Entirely-Reliable-Narrator View of Lenin's New Economic Policy of the 1920s http://www.bradford-delong.com/2015/02/daily-economic-history-leon-trotskys-not-entirely-reliable-narrator-view-of-lenins-new-economic-policy-of-the-1920s.html: "With the bourgeois economists we no longer anything to quarrel over...

...Socialism has demonstrated its right to victory, not on the pages of Das Kapital, but in an industrial arena comprising a sixth part of the earths surface--not in the language of dialectics, but in the language of steel, cement and electricity. Even if the Soviet Union, as a result of internal difficulties, external blows and the mistakes of leadership, were to collapse--which we firmly hope will not happen--there would remain an earnest of the future this indestructible fact, that thanks solely to a proletarian revolution a backward country has achieved in less than 10 years successes unexampled in history.

Procrastinating on June 2, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Nick Bunker: Weekend reading: “Unstable incomes, uncertain world” edition: "'Conversations about inequality often miss something essential... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/weekend-reading-unstable-incomes-uncertain-world-edition/
• Equitable Growth: Equitable Growth’s Jobs Day Graphs: May 2017 Report Edition | Equitable Growth: "The unemployment rate for African Americans is back to pre-recession levels... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/equitable-growths-jobs-day-graphs-may-2017-report-edition/
• Ben Thompson: Blue Apron Files for IPO, Network Effects and Customer Acquisition Costs, Uber Concerns: "I did find this bit in The Information article interesting... https://stratechery.com/2017/blue-apron-files-for-ipo-network-effects-and-customer-acquisition-costs-uber-concerns/
• Pseudoreasmus: The Cold War Triumph of Liberal Capitalism—in Hindsight https://medium.com/@pseudoerasmus/if-we-ask-the-retrospective-question-why-did-western-liberal-capitalism-actually-triumph-then-e025706801e0: "The tête-à-tête Soviet-American global struggle over the Third World...
• Dean Baker: Job Growth Slows Sharply: "the overall employment-to-population ratio (EPOP) dropp[ed] from 60.2 percent in April to 60.0 percent in May... http://cepr.net/data-bytes/jobs-bytes/jobs-2017-06
• Larry Summers: What History Tells Us about Trump’s Budget Fantasy: "The Trump economic team has not engaged in serious analysis or been in dialogue... http://larrysummers.com/2017/05/30/what-history-tells-us-about-trumps-budget-fantasy/

Procrastinating on June 1, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Perhaps Today We See Not a New Crisis of Liberal Democratic Capitalism, But an Old Condition Recurring http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/perhaps-today-we-see-not-a-new-crisis-of-liberal-democratic-capitalism-but-an-old-condition-recurring-like-herpes-if-you-will/
• Bridget Ansel: Venture capital’s gender gap is costly for firms and the economy: "The absence of women in VC firms, of course, trickles down into the success of female entrepreneurs... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/venture-capitals-gender-gap-is-costly-for-firms-and-the-economy/
• Lael Brainard: Navigating the Different Signals from Inflation and Unemployment: "The labor market has continued to strengthen... https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/brainard20170530a.htm
• Anatole Kaletsky: The Divergence of US and British Populism: "Trump’s key economic officials... plus a galaxy of Congressional officials and business leaders, made clear that Trump... is only a temporary aberration... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-resistance-brexit-acceptance-by-anatole-kaletsky-2017-05
• Annette Alstadsæter, Niels Johannesen, and Gabriel Zucman**: Tax Evasion and Inequality: "We combine stratified random audits... with new micro-data leaked from two large offshore financial institutions, HSBC Switzerland (“Swiss leaks”) and Mossack Fonseca (“Panama Papers”)... http://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/AJZ2017.pdf
• Nick Bunker: What unconventional policies are likely to stay in central bankers’ toolkits?: "Blinder... Ehrmann... de Haan... and... Jansen... academic economists... and central bankers... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/what-unconventional-policies-are-likely-to-stay-in-central-bankers-toolkits/

Procrastinating on May 30, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Why Is the FOMC So Certain the U.S. Is “Essentially at Full Employment”? http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/why-is-the-fomc-so-certain-the-u-s-is-essentially-at-full-employment/
• The Future of Work: Automation and Labor: Inclusive AI: Technology and Policy for a Diverse Human Future http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/delong-the-future-of-work-automation-and-labor-inclusive-ai-technology-and-policy-for-a-diverse-human-future/
• Charles Evans: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead: "These policies... produced results. Unemployment began to fall... https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/speeches/2017/05-25-lessons-learned-and-challenges-ahead-bank-of-japan
• Samuel Osborne: Angela Merkel says Germany can no longer rely on Donald Trump's America: "'We Europeans must really take our destiny into our own hands'... http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/angela-merkel-donald-trump-germany-us-no-longer-rely-european-union-climate-change-g7-a7760486.html
• Gavyn Davies: The Fed’s Lowflation Dilemma: "The [last] two months together have left core CPI inflation 0.4 percentage points lower than expected... https://www.ft.com/content/b165f756-e4bf-3a70-880f-74474f6538fa
• Chad Stone: Donald Trump's Indefensible Economic Growth Forecasts: "The 1.1 percentage point gap between the Trump annual growth forecast over the next decade and CBO's is the largest on record and much larger than any since the Reagan-Bush era... https://www.usnews.com/opinion/economic-intelligence/articles/2017-05-26/donald-trumps-indefensible-economic-growth-forecasts

Links for the Week of May 28, 2017

Must-Reads:

• Kavya Vaghul: Trump administration 2018 budget swaps heavy cuts to education for focus on school choice: "The more fundamental problem is that there isn’t much evidence that school choice programs, specifically vouchers, have substantial positive effects... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/trump-administration-2018-budget-swaps-heavy-cuts-to-education-for-focus-on-school-choice/
• Kevin Drum: Trump: I'll Put a Stop to Germany Selling Cars in the US: "This from Der Spiegel... http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/05/trump-ill-put-stop-germany-selling-cars-us
• Ben Bernanke: Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy: "The BOJ shouldn’t stop its determined pursuit of its inflation target... https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2017/05/23/some-reflections-on-japanese-monetary-policy/
• Haley Byrd: CBO on Health Care Bill: Sick People Could Face Higher Premiums and Even Be Priced Out of the Market: "Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.)... hadn't read the full report... said he saw it as “good news”... http://ijr.com/2017/05/881482-cbo-health-care-bill-sick-people-face-higher-premiums-even-priced-market/
• Martin Wolf: Conservatism Buries Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher: "Trump... has ended up with “pluto-populism”—policies that benefit plutocrats, justified by populist rhetoric... https://www.ft.com/content/970bbdcc-3f1e-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58
• Larry Summers: A warning on Trump’s budget: "You cannot use the growth benefits of tax cuts once to justify an optimistic baseline and then again to claim that the tax cuts do not cost revenue... https://www.ft.com/content/2ae4722a-f82f-3bbe-aba1-5b89dd8ac314
• Nicholas Bagley: Taking the Nuclear Option Off the Table: "Last Thursday, fifteen states and the District of Columbia moved to intervene in House v. Price... http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/taking-the-nuclear-option-off-the-table/
• Matthew Yglesias: The Case for Impeaching Trump—and Fast: "Andrew Johnson... the move... to remove him... reeked... of...resolv[ing] a policy dispute by ginning up a legal one... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/22/15655296/impeach-trump
• Dara Lind: It’s becoming increasingly clear that Jared Kushner is part of Trump’s Russia problem: "Jared Kushner: the young, pragmatic, hardheaded businessman out to modernize the US government and moderate the worst tendencies of his father-in-law—Donald Trump... https://www.vox.com/2017/5/20/15668162/kushner-trump-russia-corruption
• Chang-Tai Hsieh and Enrico Moretti: Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation: "We quantify the amount of spatial misallocation of labor across US cities and its aggregate costs... http://eml.berkeley.edu//~moretti/growth.pdf
• Jim Acosta: On Twitter: "Talked to a former Trump campaign staffer: who has hired attorney in Russia probe and feels Trump himself should help pay for legal costs... https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/865762200757170176
• Berkeley Behaviorial Economics Initiative: Celebration of 30 Years of Behavioral Economics at Berkeley: May 20, 2017 :: Wells Fargo Room at U.C. Berkeley

Procrastinating on May 26, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• The Future of Education and Lifelong Learning: DeLong Opening DRAFT | Equitable Growth http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/the-future-of-education-and-lifelong-learning-delong-opening-draft/
• The Benefits of Free Trade: Time to Fly My Neoliberal Freak Flag High!: Hoisted from March 2016 | Equitable Growth http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/the-benefits-of-free-trade-time-to-fly-my-neoliberal-freak-flag-high-hoisted-from-march-2016/
• Kavya Vaghul: Weekend reading: the “fantasy budget” edition: "Greg Leiserson discusses... fantasy budgeting around policies and plans that have yet to be developed... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/weekend-reading-the-fantasy-budget-edition/
• Kavya Vaghul: Trump administration 2018 budget swaps heavy cuts to education for focus on school choice: "The more fundamental problem is that there isn’t much evidence that school choice programs, specifically vouchers, have substantial positive effects... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/trump-administration-2018-budget-swaps-heavy-cuts-to-education-for-focus-on-school-choice/
• Kevin Drum: Trump: I'll Put a Stop to Germany Selling Cars in the US: "This from Der Spiegel... http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2017/05/trump-ill-put-stop-germany-selling-cars-us
• Ben Bernanke: Some reflections on Japanese monetary policy: "The BOJ shouldn’t stop its determined pursuit of its inflation target... https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ben-bernanke/2017/05/23/some-reflections-on-japanese-monetary-policy/
• Nicholas MacPherson: Joseph Chamberlain sets the Tories a bad example: "On the big national issues of his day, he was on the wrong side of history... https://www.ft.com/content/00a5c60c-3f0a-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58
• Nick Bunker: U.S. over-education and underemployment over the course of a lifetime | Equitable Growth: "Ammar Farooq also finds that almost half of the moves into underemployment—defined as having a job for which one is overqualified... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/u-s-over-education-and-underemployment-over-the-course-of-a-lifetime/
• Elizabeth Jacobs: Why enforcing U.S. labor standards may be more important than ever: "Effective enforcement of basic labor standards is key for functional capitalism... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/why-enforcing-u-s-labor-standards-may-be-more-important-than-ever/

Procrastinating on May 25, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• A Note on Coursera CEO Rick Levin’s Clark Kerr Lecture… | Equitable Growth http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/a-note-on-coursera-ceo-rick-levins-clark-kerr-lecture/
• A Few Notes on the CUNY “After Piketty” Panel… | Equitable Growth http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/a-few-notes-on-the-cuny-after-piketty-panel/
• Haley Byrd: CBO on Health Care Bill: Sick People Could Face Higher Premiums and Even Be Priced Out of the Market: "Freedom Caucus Chairman Mark Meadows (R-N.C.)... hadn't read the full report... said he saw it as “good news”... http://ijr.com/2017/05/881482-cbo-health-care-bill-sick-people-face-higher-premiums-even-priced-market/
• Martin Wolf: Conservatism Buries Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher: "Trump... has ended up with “pluto-populism”—policies that benefit plutocrats, justified by populist rhetoric... https://www.ft.com/content/970bbdcc-3f1e-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58
• Branko Milanovic: Liberation from the Shackles of Space: "A couple of things are worth noticing regarding the second unbundling... http://glineq.blogspot.ch/2016/12/liberation-from-shackles-of-space.html
• Larry Summers: A warning on Trump’s budget: "You cannot use the growth benefits of tax cuts once to justify an optimistic baseline and then again to claim that the tax cuts do not cost revenue... https://www.ft.com/content/2ae4722a-f82f-3bbe-aba1-5b89dd8ac314
• James D. Hamilton: Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter: "Here's why. (1) The HP filter produces series with spurious dynamic relations that have no basis in the underlying data-generating process... http://www.nber.org/papers/w23429
• Nicholas Bagley: Taking the Nuclear Option Off the Table: "Last Thursday, fifteen states and the District of Columbia moved to intervene in House v. Price... http://theincidentaleconomist.com/wordpress/taking-the-nuclear-option-off-the-table/
• Dan Drezner: Trump’s first foreign trip is all downhill from here: "This is day two of the trip, and he’s about to do more flying. He’s only going to get crankier and more error-prone from here...
• Stan Collender: This Week's Rollout Of Trump 2018 Budget Could Be His Biggest Failure Yet: "There was no Trump speech to... Congress last week at which his budget was featured... https://www.forbes.com/sites/stancollender/2017/05/21/due-tuesday-2018-budget-could-be-trumps-biggest-failure-yet/

Procrastinating on May 22, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Larry Summers: 5 Suggestions for Avoiding Another Banking Collapse: "First, it is essential to take a dynamic view of capital...
• Matthew Yglesias: The Case for Impeaching Trump—and Fast: "Andrew Johnson... the move... to remove him... reeked... of...resolv[ing] a policy dispute by ginning up a legal one... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/22/15655296/impeach-trump
• Bridget Ansel: Weekend Reading: “Mind the Gap” Edition: "Alana Semuels reports... a growing number of men... turning towards jobs...traditionally dominated by women, especially within... healthcare sector... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/weekend-reading-mind-the-gap-edition/
• Dara Lind: It’s becoming increasingly clear that Jared Kushner is part of Trump’s Russia problem: "Jared Kushner: the young, pragmatic, hardheaded businessman out to modernize the US government and moderate the worst tendencies of his father-in-law—Donald Trump... https://www.vox.com/2017/5/20/15668162/kushner-trump-russia-corruption
• Chang-Tai Hsieh and Enrico Moretti: Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation: "We quantify the amount of spatial misallocation of labor across US cities and its aggregate costs... http://eml.berkeley.edu//~moretti/growth.pdf
• Fabio Ghironi: On Twitter: to @MESandbu: "Some readings and thoughts on Macron’s plans and macro policy in the euro area... https://twitter.com/FabioGhironi/status/865695595566030848
• Jim Acosta: On Twitter: "Talked to a former Trump campaign staffer: who has hired attorney in Russia probe and feels Trump himself should help pay for legal costs... https://twitter.com/Acosta/status/865762200757170176
• John Gruber: Announcing JSON Feed https://jsonfeed.org/version/1: "Brent Simmons and Manton Reece... https://daringfireball.net/linked/2017/05/17/json-feed
• Berkeley Behaviorial Economics Initiative: Celebration of 30 Years of Behavioral Economics at Berkeley: May 20, 2017 :: Wells Fargo Room at U.C. Berkeley:
• Heather Boushey et al.: "After Piketty" panel at the Graduate Center, CUNY: "Heather Boushey, Paul Krugman, Branko Milanovic, and Salvatore Morelli discuss After Piketty at the Graduate Center of CUNY on May 11, 2017. http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/after-piketty-panel-at-the-graduate-center-cuny/
• Nick Bunker: Just how big does the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet need to be?: "The balance sheet grew so much over the past 10 years because the Fed was purchasing massive amounts of assets to stimulate the economy... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/just-how-big-does-the-federal-reserves-balance-sheet-need-to-be/

Links for the Week of May 20, 2017

Must-Reads:

• Heather Boushey et al.: "After Piketty" panel at the Graduate Center, CUNY: "Heather Boushey, Paul Krugman, Branko Milanovic, and Salvatore Morelli discuss After Piketty at the Graduate Center of CUNY on May 11, 2017. http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/after-piketty-panel-at-the-graduate-center-cuny/
• Paul Krugman: Calling Literatures From The Vasty Deep: "Noah [Smith's]... Two Paper Rule...
• Lionel Barber et al.: Trump’s Failures Risk a Constitutional Crisis: "No president is above the law... https://www.ft.com/content/872a9e2a-3af8-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
• Eric Miller: The Unnamed Behemoth: Review of "Public Intellectuals in the Global Arena" http://amzn.to/2pSZyVd: "Deep learning eloquently brought to bear on the contemporary moment has, quite evidently, not been enough to shore up the aging foundations of our republic... https://www.commonwealmagazine.org/unnamed-behemoth
• Jack Goldsmith et al.: Bombshell: Initial Thoughts: "H.R. McMaster... Rex Tillerson... very carefully worded statements that leave open the possibility that classified information was disclosed other than sources and methods... https://www.lawfareblog.com/bombshell-initial-thoughts-washington-posts-game-changing-story
• David Rennie: An Economist reporter dishes on Trump's 'priming the pump' interview: "On trade deals... [Trump] seems to think that... if the Mexicans seem to be doing well out of the deal at all... https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-05-12/economist-reporter-dishes-trumps-priming-pump-interview
• David Luban: The Case Against Serving: "Masha Gessen, writing in NYRDaily, fears the worst: that Trump will be an American Erdoğan or a Putin on the Potomac... https://www.justsecurity.org/34404/case-serving-trump/
• David Roberts: We Overanalyze Trump. He Is What He Appears to Be: "Why is it so hard to accept that Trump is acting out of pique, on impulse, because Comey on his TV gave him bad feels?... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/12/15621140/interpret-trump

Procrastinating on May 19, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Rick Levin: Toward Sustainable Financing of Higher Education: "In the face of rising costs of attendance and an escalating burden of student debt... http://www.cshe.berkeley.edu/events/toward-sustainable-financing-higher-education-0
• Paul Krugman: Calling Literatures From The Vasty Deep: "Noah [Smith's]... Two Paper Rule...
• Ben Thompson: Apple-WeChat Follow-up: "I did make one additional addition to the article... this... https://stratechery.com/2017/apple-wechat-follow-up-windows-10-s-and-the-education-market/
• Branko Milanovic: Reducing inequality by deconcentrating capital: "The capital–income ratio continues to rise... http://voxeu.org/article/reducing-inequality-deconcentrating-capital
• David Anderson: Revisiting Cassidy-Collins: "Engagement either leads to burning Senate time if there is no productive grounds for a deal... https://www.balloon-juice.com/2017/05/16/revisiting-cassidy-collins/
• Lionel Barber et al.: Trump’s Failures Risk a Constitutional Crisis: "No president is above the law... https://www.ft.com/content/872a9e2a-3af8-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec

Procrastinating on May 17, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Some Notes on Eric Miller’s Review of “Public Intellectuals in the Global Arena”… | Equitable Growth http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/some-notes-on-eric-millers-review-of-public-intellectuals-in-the-global-arena/
• Bridget Ansel: Climbing the career ladder, switching jobs, and the gender wage gap in the United States: "For workers with a college education, gender-based gaps in pay are primarily caused by disparities that emerge within a single workplace... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/climbing-the-career-ladder-switching-jobs-and-the-gender-wage-gap-in-the-united-states/
• Nick Bunker: A reminder on the current size of the gig economy: "From 2005 to 2015, the share of workers in alternative work arrangements rose from 10.1 percent to 15.8 percent... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/a-reminder-on-the-current-size-of-the-gig-economy/
• Nick Bunker: Home is where the government subsidy is: "Matthew Desmond outlines how U.S. government policy toward housing has become a source of inequality... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/home-is-where-the-government-subsidy-is/
• Lachlan Markay et al.: White House Staff ‘Hiding’ as Russia Chaos Engulfs West Wing: "“With news like this I’m beginning to wonder why Trump ran in the first place and if he really cares about the country” said a senior Trump appointee... http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/05/15/white-house-staff-hiding-as-russia-chaos-engulfs-west-wing
• Noah Smith: Vast Literatures as Mud Moats: "My solution to this problem is what I call the Two Paper Rule... http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2017/05/vast-literatures-as-mud-moats.html
• Jack Goldsmith et al.: Bombshell: Initial Thoughts: "H.R. McMaster... Rex Tillerson... very carefully worded statements that leave open the possibility that classified information was disclosed other than sources and methods... https://www.lawfareblog.com/bombshell-initial-thoughts-washington-posts-game-changing-story
• Scott Lemieux: Our Presidential Manchild: "It’s sad that none of the details in Shane Goldmacher’s story about how Trump’s aides deal with him are even surprising anymore... http://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2017/05/our-presidential-manchild-2
• Bob Davis: Why Trump’s Scorn for Pacific Trade Pact May Have Been Hasty: "On his first workday in the Oval Office, President Trump killed the Trans-Pacific Partnership. He will probably spend the rest of his term trying to revive parts of it... https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-trumps-scorn-for-pacific-trade-pact-may-have-been-hasty-1494763203
• Bill Janeway: Which Productivity Puzzle?: "It is now, just 50 years from the invention of the microprocessor, that the complex of digital technologies have matured... https://medium.com/@bjaneway/which-productivity-puzzle-ffe1d574ae96

Some Notes on Eric Miller's Review of "Public Intellectuals in the Global Arena"...

Eric Miller: The Unnamed Behemoth: Review of "Public Intellectuals in the Global Arena" http://amzn.to/2pSZyVd: "Deep learning eloquently brought to bear on the contemporary moment has, quite evidently, not been enough to shore up the aging foundations of our republic... https://www.commonwealmagazine.org/unnamed-behemoth

...And a live-from-the-West-Wing Twitter feed is not likely to advance our fortunes, either.... Is the liberal democratic tradition up to the challenge—the challenge of disciplining an economic order that exists not to prosper democracy but itself? On such crucial questions this volume sounds an uncertain note—and a rather quiet uncertain note at that.... No thoroughgoing leftists (seemingly) number among the contributors—none, that is, disposed to warn of enlarging catastrophic conflict between democracy and capital...

(1) But I thought I had done so! Was I too elliptical?

Procrastinating on May 15, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Joseph Stiglitz: Illiberal Stagnation: "What went wrong? Who, if anyone, is to blame?... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/illiberal-stagnation-russia-transition-by-joseph-e--stiglitz-2017-04
• David Rennie: An Economist reporter dishes on Trump's 'priming the pump' interview: "On trade deals... [Trump] seems to think that... if the Mexicans seem to be doing well out of the deal at all... https://www.pri.org/stories/2017-05-12/economist-reporter-dishes-trumps-priming-pump-interview
• Barry Eichengreen: Is Germany Unbalanced or Unhinged?: "The question... is why Germany should seek to reduce its current-account surplus... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/german-external-surplus-requires-public-investment-by-barry-eichengreen-2017-05

Procrastinating on May 14, 2017

Over at Equitable Growth: Must- and Should-Reads:

• Nick Bunker: How the opening to China may have partially fueled the U.S. housing bubble: "Barrot, Loualiche, Plosser, and Sauvagnat find that increased import competition does explain a good amount of the variation in household debt... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/how-the-opening-to-china-may-have-partially-fueled-the-u-s-housing-bubble/
• Kavya Vaghul: Weekend reading: the #WorkingPaperTuesday edition: "Matthew Desmond tackles the relationship between homeownership and inequality... http://equitablegrowth.org/equitablog/value-added/weekend-reading-the-workingpapertuesday-edition/
• David Luban: The Case Against Serving: "Masha Gessen, writing in NYRDaily, fears the worst: that Trump will be an American Erdoğan or a Putin on the Potomac... https://www.justsecurity.org/34404/case-serving-trump/
• Graydon Saunders (2016): The End: "Well, it's the events of the end; we can count 2017-01-01 or 2016-12-19 or 2017-01-20 if we want... http://dubiousprospects.blogspot.com/2016/12/the-end.html
• David Roberts: We Overanalyze Trump. He Is What He Appears to Be: "Why is it so hard to accept that Trump is acting out of pique, on impulse, because Comey on his TV gave him bad feels?... https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2017/5/12/15621140/interpret-trump
• David Anderson: Mulvaney and the Deserving Sick: "OMB Director Mulvaney... Dennis Shea makes a very good point... https://www.balloon-juice.com/2017/05/14/mulvaney-and-the-deserving-sick/
• Dani Rodrik: Can Macron Pull it Off?: "Le Pen received more than a third of the second-round vote... And turnout was apparently sharply... indicating a large number of disaffected voters... https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/macron-germany-eurozone-fiscal-union-by-dani-rodrik-2017-05
• Matthew Yglesias: The latest Trump interview once again reveals appalling ignorance and dishonesty https://www.vox.com/2017/5/11/15622900/trump-economist-interview: "It seems overwhelmingly likely [Trump] is speaking nonsense out of ignorance...

Links for the Week of May 14, 2017

Must-Reads:

• Matthew Yglesias: The latest Trump interview once again reveals appalling ignorance and dishonesty https://www.vox.com/2017/5/11/15622900/trump-economist-interview: "It seems overwhelmingly likely [Trump] is speaking nonsense out of ignorance...
• Will Bunch: The problem with NY Times and climate change isn't what you think: "So many people were so mad... [is] about what people... thought they were getting... http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/attytood/The-big-problem-with-NY-Times-climate-isnt-what-you-think.html?mobi=true
• Tom Nichols: @RadioFreeTom on Twitter: "I am often astonished at the President's tweets... https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom
• After Piketty: "The Graduate Center 365 Fifth Avenue | 1201: Elebash Recital Hall | May 11, 2017: 6:30 PM http://www.gc.cuny.edu/publicprograms...
• Josh Marshall: TPM and The Future of Digital News Publishing http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/tpm-and-the-future-of-digital-news-publishing: "The engrossment of most of the ad revenue by two big monopolies will spell the end of a lot of ad-supported websites...
• Thomas Piketty: Lessons from "Capital in the Twenty-First Century" http://amzn.to/2qgPIRE: "I would like to see Capital in the Twenty-First Century as a work-in-progress of social science...
• Francis Wilkinson: Trade Is the Scapegoat for Political Failure: "Democrats have no viable plans to bring back sustainable, high-paying, blue-collar jobs... https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-05-03/trade-is-the-scapegoat-for-political-failure