David Warsh: The Tardy Product: Gorton and Holmström: "When high theory is placed in juxtaposition to practice that has developed in the world itself, surprising new issues for the theory sometimes emerge...
David Warsh: The Tardy Product: Gorton and Holmström: "When high theory is placed in juxtaposition to practice that has developed in the world itself, surprising new issues for the theory sometimes emerge...
Olivier Blanchard (2007): Monetary Policy, Labor Markets, and Fiscal Policy: "Why is inflation targeting so popular, both among central banks and among academic economists? For two conceptually separate reasons...
Mitt Romney (2012): Secret 47% Video:
Romney: ...And I guess everybody here is a dignitary, and I appreciate your help. And by the way, I am serious about the food. Bring that... clear the place, but Hilary has to eat her beets... [Audience laughs.]
October 22, 2016 at 12:16 PM in Economics: Health, Economics: Inequality, Moral Responsibility, Obama Administration, Philosophy: Moral, Political Economy, Politics, Streams: (Weekend) Reading, Streams: Across the Wide Missouri, Streams: Cycle, Streams: Economics, Streams: Equitable Growth | Permalink | Comments (1)
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Josh Barro: Why I left Republican Party to register as a Democrat: "The most important thing we have learned this year...
...is that when the Republican Party was hijacked by a dangerous fascist who threatens to destroy the institutions that make America great and free, most Republicans up and down the organizational chart stood behind him and insisted he ought to be president.
The government should help people who are materially struggling. Globalization definitely left some segments of the population struggling, and they deserve help. White people, while still economically dominant over black and Latino Americans in basically every way possible, can suffer from poverty too. But there’s something striking about this line of commentary: It doesn’t take the stated concerns of Trump voters, and voters for similar far-right populists abroad, seriously in the slightest.
The press has gotten extremely comfortable with describing a Trump electorate that simply doesn’t exist.
Labor force upgrading, productivity growth upgrading, higher investment, and more learning about business models in a higher pressure economy: hysteresis.
Janet L. Yellen: 2016 Economic Conference: Keynote Address:
Matthew Yglesias: The Best Book on the Wild 2016 Campaign: "The best--and in some ways, most disturbing--account... comes from a recent work of political science that doesn’t mention Clinton or Donald Trump... Christopher Achen and Larry Bartels... Democracy for Realists...
...based on years of scholarship they’ve done on the ugly realities of how American voting behavior really works. It sheds crucial light on a question that liberals have been banging their heads over for months — why on earth would anyone vote for Donald Trump? Their analysis is both troubling and important: Throughout history, people in general have cast their votes for no particularly good reason at all, so there’s no reason to expect Trump supporters to be any different.
As Josh Barro likes to say: "Trump only takes your dignity if you voluntarily give it to him..."
I do not like Ted Cruz. I don't like anybody who ever found Donald Trump "refreshing". I don't like people who have expressed sympathy for Ted Cruz. I do not like his negotiating strategy. I am disappointed that somehow his Republican colleagues failed to managed to convince Ted Cruz that the negotiating strategy of 'we will blow up the country unless you change the laws in ways we like' is a losing strategy in a country in which it is considered a bad thing to give in to blackmail. I always found it curious that there were Senators Cruz and Lee--and fifty Republicans in the House--who thought that their constituents cared so little about the well-being of the country that would applaud threats of ‘we will damage the country unless you change the laws in ways we like’. And I thought it was remarkable that Cruz thought he would be the beneficiary of drenching America with gasoline and getting out the lighter in order to attempt to generate peak wingnut.
And for anyone who thinks Ted Cruz would in any sense have been a preferable candidate than Trump, I want you to remember this. And recognize: nobody was willing to lift their procedural little finger to give Ted Cruz any more time to blather further:
Weekend Reading: Ted Cruz: The Real Story: "Mr. President, there is a reason the American people are fed up with Washington...
Barack Obama: 5 Days That Shaped My Presidency:
Barack Obama shares with Jonathan Chait a very early draft of his memoirs.
Chait: Let’s start with the time in 2010 when Mitch McConnell publicly says that his No. 1 goal is to make you a one-term president. How did that comment strike you? Was it news?
Obama: By that point it was pretty apparent by his actions that it was already his No. 1 goal. He validated what I think most of this town knew. When I came into office, my working assumption was that because we were in crisis, and the crisis had begun on the Republicans’ watch, that there would be a window in which they would feel obliged to cooperate on a common effort to dig us out of this massive hole.
John Bell (1989): Against "Measurement":
Uncertainty over terms such as 'apparatus' is still rife in serious discussions of quantum mechanics, over 60 years after its conception:
This article is published with the permission of Plenum Publishing, New York; it will appear in the proceedings of 62 Years of Uncertainty (Erice, 5—14 August 1989):
Rick Perlstein: Diverse and Perverse: RNC 2016: The Coalition that Trump Built:
Welcome to the House of Trump: The convention began with a prayer for God to bless his chosen political party, from a black preacher who announced it was fitting and proper to do so “because we are electing a man in Donald Trump who believes in the name of Jesus Christ.” And because “our enemy is not other Republicans, but is Hillary Clinton and the Democratic Party.” Rev. Mark Burns is a devotee of the “prosperity gospel.” At a Trump rally in March, he had said: “There is no black person, there is no yellow person, there is no red person, there’s only green, people! Green is money!”
Edward Luce: The Boy Who Escaped Trump Country:
Coaxing people in Buchanan County to open up to a stranger is not the easiest of tasks. “We’re leery of outsiders,” says Dana Oliver, a 22-year-old single mother who lives in a mobile home and works two part-time jobs--serving in a bar and managing stock in a dollar store:
They make us look stupid, as though everybody’s missing their teeth or high on Oxycontin [a prescription opioid]. Seems like we’re easy to stereotype.”
In exchange for Oliver’s insights, I agree to be e-introduced to her friend, Daniel Justus, who would show me another side of things. “Not everyone in Buchanan is going to hell,” she says. “Some people are making something of their lives.” I quickly forget about our deal as Oliver tells me about her travails. But that evening, an email arrives from Daniel. He calls himself “the boy who escaped”. It piques my interest. What, I wonder, was Daniel escaping from?
October 09, 2016 at 12:15 PM in Economics: Growth, Economics: History, Economics: Inequality, Moral Responsibility, Philosophy: Moral, Political Economy, Politics, Streams: (Weekend) Reading, Streams: Across the Wide Missouri, Streams: Cycle, Streams: Economics, Streams: Equitable Growth | Permalink | Comments (0)
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John Maynard Keynes (1937): The General Theory of Employment:
I: I am much indebted to the Editors of the Quarterly Journal for the four contributions relating to my General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money which appeared in the issue for November, 1936. They contain detailed criticisms, much of which I accept and from which I hope to benefit. There is nothing in Professor Taussig's comment from which I disagree. Mr. Leontief is right, I think, in the distinction he draws between my attitude and that of the "orthodox" theory to what he calls the "homogeneity postulate." I should have thought, however, that there was abundant evidence from experience to contradict this postulate; and that, in any case, it is for those who make a highly special assumption to justify it, rather than for one who dispenses with it, to prove a general negative. I would also suggest that his idea might be applied more fruitfully and with greater theoretical precision in connection with the part played by the quantity of money in determining the rate of interest (Cf. my paper on "The Theory of the Rate of Interest" to appear in the volume of Essays in honor of Irving Fisher). For it is here, I think, that the homogeneity postulate primarily enters into the orthodox theoretical scheme.
Barry Eichengreen: Closing Remarks to Policy Challenges in a Diverging Global Economy:
It is one of the great pleasures of my association with the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco to give these closing remarks. Having done this twice before, in 2011 and 2013, this affords me the opportunity not just to highlight some insights from this year’s papers but also to look back at the conclusions of those earlier conferences and see how they stack up in light of recent events.
Richard Feynman (1974): Cargo Cult Science:
During the Middle Ages there were all kinds of crazy ideas, such as that a piece of rhinoceros horn would increase potency. (Another crazy idea of the Middle Ages is these hats we have on today—which is too loose in my case.) Then a method was discovered for separating the ideas—which was to try one to see if it worked, and if it didn’t work, to eliminate it. This method became organized, of course, into science. And it developed very well, so that we are now in the scientific age. It is such a scientific age, in fact, that we have difficulty in understanding how witch doctors could ever have existed, when nothing that they proposed ever really worked—or very little of it did.
Ada Palmer (2012): Machiavelli I:
My year in Florence has flown by, leaving me to face up to a life without battlements and medieval towers, without Botticelli and Verrocchio, without church bells to inform me when it’s noon, or 7 am, or 6 am, or 6:12 am (why?), without squash blossoms as a pizza topping, without good gelato within easy reach, and without looking out my window and realizing that the humungous dome of the cathedral is still shockingly humungous whenever I see it, and the facade so beautiful that it hasn’t started to feel real, not even after so long.
Ta-Nehisi Coates: [Why the Media Didn't Bother to Verify if Hillary Clinton's Remark About Half of Donald Trump's Supporters Being 'Deplorable' Was True]:
How Breitbart Conquered the Media Political reporters were taken aback by Hillary Clinton’s charge that half of Trump’s supporters are prejudiced. Few bothered to investigate the claim itself...
Paul Krugman (2011): Mr Keynes and the Moderns:
It’s a great honour to be asked to give this talk, especially because I’m arguably not qualified to do so.1 I am, after all, not a Keynes scholar, nor any kind of serious intellectual historian. Nor have I spent most of my career doing macroeconomics. Until the late 1990s my contributions to that field were limited to international issues; although I kept up with macro research, I avoided getting into the frontline theoretical and empirical disputes.
Scott Pelley: Do you think of waterboarding as a dark time in the history of your agency?
John Brennan: Sure. Waterboarding was something that was authorized. It was something that I do not believe was appropriate. It is something that is not used now and as far as I'm concerned will not be used again.
Scott Pelley: You were in management here at the time. You didn't stop it.
The body count is truly impressive: hubris, nemesis, and slaughter of the elite of the Davidic kingdom on a remarkable scale...
All save Benaiah, Zadok, Bathsheba, Nathan, and Solomon... Are any other named characters (save the foreign mercenaries outside the clan-and-revenge structure--the Cherethites and Pelethites) still alive at the end? And does anyone save David (and Samuel) ever manage to die peacefully? Perhaps Abishag the Shunammite makes it out of Jerusalem alive?
The Court Historian: The Massacre of the House and Servants of David: 2 Samuel 11 ff.:
David sent Joab, and his servants with him, and all Israel, and they destroyed the children of Ammon, and besieged Rabbah...
Weekend Reading: Jeff Jarvis: The News and its New Silent Majority: Clinton Supporters:
This election, I’ve been trying an experiment, judging journalism from a different perspective, from the outside, as a member of a community and a partisan. I don’t like what I’m learning about my profession.
Weekend Reading: Kelly Kleiman: The University of Chicago and John Ellison Strike Out:
My alma mater the University of Chicago has managed to get what it’s always wanted: attention from the national press. Unfortunately, it did so by sending a completely unnecessary letter to incoming students announcing the school’s opposition to trigger warnings and safe spaces, concepts the letter doesn’t seem to understand at all. So let me wade into this muck in the hope of achieving some clarity. As the University of Chicago taught me, it’s best to begin by defining one’s terms.
No, the stock market is not an "efficient" price discovery mechanism in any sense. But you are almost surely not one of the people who can exploit this to make a lot of money easily:
Joe Seligman (1983): Can you beat the stock market?:
FORTUNE — Most people interested in the stock market fall into one of three categories...
- academic scholars who doubt that anybody really knows how to beat the market;
- professional investors who indignantly reject this view of the matter; and
- amateur investors who also believe that you can beat the market but don’t realize how controversial this assumption is.
I have long been a partisan of the first group, and until the last year or so had assumed that its case was airtight.
Many smart analysts across the political spectrum have rightly situated Donald Trump’s run for president in the international context of the ethno-nationalist parties found throughout Western Europe. In the UK, the Independence Party (UKIP) just led the winning referendum campaign — Brexit — in support of Britain leaving the European Union. In late 2015, the anti-Muslim French National Front (FN), received 27 percent of the vote in local elections around the country. Like Trump, these and other European rightist parties have made the limitation of immigration their most salient issue. They also claim to defend their country from forces like economic and political integration, which might dilute national sovereignty.
This embrace of a comparative perspective is a welcome development...
Narayana Kocherlakota: On the Puzzling Prevalence of Puzzles:
Academic macroeconomics is about solving a seemingly never-ending series of puzzles, as model after model fails to... [fit] only limited slices of the available data...
Live from Trumpland: Bear in mind that ever since the days of Reagan, a media celebrity is what many Republicans think the president should be: he (and it is he) is supposed to glad-hand his way around the country, leaving governance to Cheney-like figures in the shadows. The problems with Trump, from the standpoint of mainstream Republicans, are two:
He's supposed to be a genial, reassuring type--with red meat to the base confined to dog whistles. The Volkisch appeals to white Heerschaft* are not suppose to be out there.
He's not supposed to have policy views of his own. And if he does have policy views of his own, he's supposed to keep very quiet about them.
Friday morning, Donald Trump’s campaign officially acknowledged the resignation of campaign chair Paul Manafort, the most conventional political operative in Trump’s orbit, as part of a larger shakeup of the campaign staff. A shakeup, of course, is exactly what establishment Republican figures have been dreaming of for weeks if not months. But they’re not going to get the one they wanted. Instead of trying to reinvent himself as a more generic, more conventional GOP figure who can take advantage of Hillary Clinton’s own unpopularity, Trump is opting for the self-flattering theory that what’s needed is to let Trump be Trump.
Eve Fisher: The $3500 Shirt - A History Lesson in Economics:
One of the great advantages of being a historian is that you don't get your knickers in as much of a twist over how bad things are today. If you think this year is bad, try 1347, when the Black Death covered most of Europe, one-third of the world had died, and (to add insult to injury) there was also (in Europe) the little matter of the Hundred Years' War and the Babylonian Captivity of the Church (where the pope had moved to Avignon, France, and basically the Church was being transformed into a subsidiary of the French regime). Things are looking up already, aren't they?
My colleague and neighbor Michael O'Hare is fed up with and denounces Berkeley NIMBYist privilege. I have two reactions:
Barack Obama: Dem Convention Speech:
Hello, America. Twelve years ago tonight, I addressed this convention for the very first time.
Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Gehenna: The Houston Chronicle: These Unsettling Times Require a Steady Hand: That's Not Donald Trump:
Houston Chronicle Editorial Board endorses Hillary Clinton: On Nov. 8, 2016, the American people will... choose between one candidate with vast experience and a lifelong dedication to public service and another totally lacking in qualifications to be president...
W. Arthur Lewis (1977): The Evolution of the International Economic Order
We must therefore turn to economic explanations. The most important... is the dependence of an industrial revolution on a prior or simultaneous agricultural revolution... already familiar to eighteenth-century economists, including Sir James Steuart and Adam Smith. In a closed economy, the size of the industrial sector is a function of agricultural productivity. Agriculture has to be capable of producing the surplus food and raw materials consumed in the industrial sector, and it is the affluent state of the farmers that enables them to be a market for industrial products.
Aceto: Review of: Cynthia Ozick: Critics, Monsters, Fanatics, and Other Lit...: I am the Problem:
Cynthia Ozick has written a collection of essays centered on criticism. Criticizing criticism is a thankless job. One gets oneself into all sorts of quagmire. She posits 'nothing is worth doing unless it has never been done before...', as one mode, then the other as '...the sweet value of ripeness.'
David Kurtz: Whence The Anger?:
If there's one thing Tierney Sneed and Lauren Fox found while reporting for us in Cleveland that I probably don't factor in enough in assessing the Trump phenomenon it's the deep resentment and bitterness Republican Party rank-and-file feel toward their own leaders for not fulfilling the extravagant promises made to them since the 2010 Tea Party revolt. I tend to focus more on the white resentment, race-baiting, and xenophobia that arise from the tectonic social shifts way below the surface. They're not decoupled from each other, but the promise that Obama would be put in his place (with all the accompanying racial overtones to that notion) and his political and policy agenda expunged from the public record were powerful GOP draws for three election cycles, as detached from political reality as those promises may have been.
Live from Gehenna, with the Republicans in Bed with the Short-Fingered Vulgarian: Needless to say: There is no picture of Ted Cruz's father and Lee Harvey Oswald having breakfast. There is no picture of Ted Cruz's father and Lee Harvey Oswald not having breakfast. There is no picture of Ted Cruz's father and Lee Harvey Oswald.
I looked for signs, but at no point in the video does Pence blink twice or otherwise signal that he was being held against his will, but his presence is by far the most bizarre part of the video. Mike Pence endorsed Ted Cruz for president. He clearly thinks he’s a respectable politician.
Donald Trump: Bananas Attack on Ted Cruz:
If you turn on the television, if you turn on some of the dishonest media, you’ll see, "Oh well, this happened and this happened." What happened? Somebody [Cruz] got booed the hell out a place by thousands and thousands of people. There wasn’t one person in the room. Not one. And then they said: "There may not be unity!" Unity? There wasn’t one person in the room who wasn’t--including the Texas delegation, right?
Live from the Cleveland Dumpster Fire: Donald Trump: Transcript: NATO, Turkey’s Coup Attempt and the World:
SANGER: So what we want to do is pick up where we left off in March. We were listening to Speaker Ryan last night, and he presented a much more traditional Republican, engaged internationalist view of the world. One in which he said that the United States would never lead from behind. In our conversation a few months ago, you were discussing pulling back from commitments we can no longer afford unless others pay for them. You were discussing a set of alliances that you were happy to participate in.
TRUMP: And I think, by the way, David, I think they will be able to afford them.
IMHO, Ezra Klein should be scared of Trump. But he should be more scared of America's press corps, that reports politics not as a horse race--horse-race reporters know about the fundamentals that are tracks and jockeys and bloodlines and so forth--but as a WWE match. And he should be most scared of the Republican Party--80% of its core members and 90% of its activists will vote and work for Trump.
Ezra Klein: Donald Trump Is the first time American Politics Has Left Me Truly Afraid: "Tonight, Donald J. Trump will accept the Republican Party’s nomination for president of the United States...
Live from Cleveland: Why we read and trust Ezra Klein's vox.com. It publishes things like this, which is dead on:
Tom Mann and Norm Ornstein: The Republicans waged a 3-decade war on government. They got Trump: "Trumpism may have parallels in populist, nativist movements abroad...
...but it is also the culmination of a proud political party’s steady descent into a deeply destructive and dysfunctional state. While that descent has been underway for a long time, it has accelerated its pace in recent years.
Douglas Fraser: 1978 Letter from UAW President Douglas Fraser Resigning from the Labor-Management Group: "July 17, 1978: I have come to the reluctant conclusion that my participation in the Labor- Management Group cannot continue...
...I am therefore resigning from the Group as of July 19. You are entitled to know why I take this action and you should understand that I have the highest regard for John Dunlop, my colleagues on the labor side and, as individuals, those who represent the corporate elite in the Group.
I was going to put up, as weekend reading, the 1984 Columbia University "Orangutang" Efficient Markets Hypothesis Debate...
I can find Buffett's talk: "The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville. But I cannot find a copy of Michael Jensen's talk anywhere...
Can anybody help?
Tim Dunlop: Journalism, Power and Taking Sides: "Like any profession, journalism relies on ways of doing things that have developed over years...
...They are so taken for granted within the profession that they are almost invisible to the practitioners themselves. The best criticisms, therefore, are ones that get past the immediate infraction and instead try to make visible the underlying structural problem, the habit or practice that is causing the problems.
Dylan Matthews: No, Really, George W. Bush Lied About WMDs: "The best estimates available suggest that more than 250,000 people have died as a result of George W. Bush and Tony Blair's decision to invade Iraq in 2003...
...A newly released investigative report from the UK government suggests that intelligence officials knew ahead of time that the war would cause massive instability and societal collapse and make the problem of terrorism worse — and that Blair and Bush went ahead with the effort anyway.
John Scalzi: How Blogs Work Today: "My piece... on Clinton and Sanders blew up... with roughly 75,000 views over two days...
...This gave me an excuse to check my referrers and ego search on Google and see a bit of who was talking about the post and/or sending people my way. What I found: Facebook was by far the largest mover of visits and the place where the largest number of people were commenting on the piece, on their own wall or in the comments of others. Twitter was the next highest contributor of traffic/discussion. After that, and a bit down the scale, a couple of political sites, community sites like Metafilter or Reddit, and Google Plus, which, yes, apparently some people still use. But, interestingly, almost none of the conversation about/traffic to the piece was coming from personal blogs.
David Frum (2009): The Goldwater Myth:
Conservatives live in thrall to a historical myth, and this myth may soon cost us dearly. The myth is the myth of the Goldwater triumph of 1964... [when, supposedly,] after years of watered down politics, Republicans turned to a true conservative, Arizona Senator Barry Goldwater. Yes, Goldwater lost badly. But in losing, he bequeathed conservatives a national organization – and a new champion, Ronald Reagan. Goldwater’s defeat opened the way to Reagan’s ultimate triumph and the conservative ascendancy of the 1980s and 1990s. This (the myth continues) is the history we need to repeat. If we can just find the right messenger.... The Goldwater myth shuts down all attempts to reform and renew our conservative message for modern times....
John Quincy Adams (1821): Independence Day Speech (July 4):
It is not, let me repeat, fellow citizens, it is not the long enumeration of intolerable wrongs concentrated in this declaration; it is not the melancholy catalogue of alternate oppression and entreaty, of reciprocated indignity and remonstrance, upon which, in the celebration of this anniversary, your memory delights to dwell.
Jeff Toobin: Clarence Thomas Has His Own Constitution:
This year’s Supreme Court term abounded in so much drama—the death of Justice Antonin Scalia, the tie votes among the remaining Justices, the liberal victories in the final days—that it was possible to miss a curious subplot: the full flowering of Justice Clarence Thomas’s judicial eccentricity.
Live from Crawford: Thomas Mallon: W Is for Why: How Bad Can a President Be?: A new biography exposes the mysterious confidence behind George W. Bush’s greatest failures: Jean Edward Smith’s biography presents a headstrong, doubt-free, and curiously opaque George W. Bush:
Cory Doctorow: How to Protect the Future Web from Its Founders' Own Frailty:
So, as you might imagine, I'm here to talk to you about dieting advice. If you ever want to go on a diet, the first thing you should really do is throw away all your Oreos.
It's not that you don't want to lose weight when you raid your Oreo stash in the middle of the night. It's just that the net present value of tomorrow's weight loss is hyperbolically discounted in favor of the carbohydrate rush of tonight's Oreos. If you're serious about not eating a bag of Oreos your best bet is to not have a bag of Oreos to eat. Not because you're weak willed. Because you're a grown up. And once you become a grown up, you start to understand that there will be tired and desperate moments in your future and the most strong-willed thing you can do is use the willpower that you have now when you're strong, at your best moment, to be the best that you can be later when you're at your weakest moment.
Martin Luther King, Jr. (1965): Address at the Conclusion of the Selma to Montgomery March**:
"If it may be said of the slavery era that the white man took the world and gave the Negro Jesus, then it may be said of the Reconstruction era that the southern aristocracy took the world and gave the poor white man Jim Crow. (Yes, sir) He gave him Jim Crow. (Uh huh) And when his wrinkled stomach cried out for the food that his empty pockets could not provide, (Yes, sir) he ate Jim Crow, a psychological bird that told him that no matter how bad off he was, at least he was a white man, better than the black man. (Right sir) And he ate Jim Crow. (Uh huh) And when his undernourished children cried out for the necessities that his low wages could not provide, he showed them the Jim Crow signs on the buses and in the stores, on the streets and in the public buildings. (Yes, sir) And his children, too, learned to feed upon Jim Crow, (Speak) their last outpost of psychological oblivion. (Yes, sir) Thus, the threat of the free exercise of the ballot by the Negro and the white masses alike (Uh huh) resulted in the establishment of a segregated society. They segregated southern money from the poor whites; they segregated southern mores from the rich whites; (Yes, sir) they segregated southern churches from Christianity (Yes, sir); they segregated southern minds from honest thinking; (Yes, sir) and they segregated the Negro from everything. (Yes, sir)..."
John Maynard Keynes (1925): Am I a Liberal?: "If one is born a political animal, it is most uncomfortable...
...not to belong to a party; cold and lonely and futile it is. If your party is strong, and its programme and its philosophy sympathetic, satisfying the gregarious, practical, and intellectual instincts all at the same time, how very agreeable that must be!—worth a large subscription and all one's spare time;—that is, if you are a political animal. So the political animal who cannot bring himself to utter the contemptible words, "I am no party man," would almost rather belong to any party than to none. If he cannot find a home by the principle of attraction, he must find one by the principle of repulsion and go to those whom he dislikes least, rather than stay out in the cold.
John Maynard Keynes (1919) The Economic Consequences of the Peace http://amzn.to/28SXgy3
Very few of us realize with conviction the intensely unusual, unstable, complicated, unreliable, temporary nature of the economic organization by which Western Europe has lived for the last half century. We assume some of the most peculiar and temporary of our late advantages as natural, permanent, and to be depended on, and we lay our plans accordingly. On this sandy and false foundation we scheme for social improvement and dress our political platforms, pursue our animosities and particular ambitions, and feel ourselves with enough margin in hand to foster, not assuage, civil conflict in the European family.
Looking Forward to Four Years During Which Most if Not All of America's Potential for Human Progress Is Likely to Be Wasted
With each passing day Donald Trump looks more and more like Silvio Berlusconi: bunga-bunga governance, with a number of unlikely and unforeseen disasters and a major drag on the country--except in states where his policies are neutralized.
Nevertheless, remember: WE ARE WITH HER!
"I now know it is a rising, not a setting, sun" --Benjamin Franklin, 1787