He is incredibly smart and incredibly hard working: we eagerly look forward to lots of refreshments:
June 09, 2005
Oil futures and the future of oil
Commodity traders can have as hard a time as any of us trying to predict oil prices. But it's interesting to see what the current price structure tells us about what traders believe brought about the current high prices and what may be in store for us next.
June 08, 2005
Predicting the Fed's next move
Fed-watching can be something of an arcane sport. Will the subtle disappointments in the May employment and automobile sales figures persuade the Fed to hold back on another interest rate hike? And what would someone who's really "in the know" infer from how high Alan Greenspan raised his right eyebrow at his last public appearance? Although playing that game can be fun, it's actually quite easy for anybody to have a very well-informed belief about what we can expect next from the Federal Reserve.
June 06, 2005
Economic consequences of the high price of oil
All but one of the U.S. recessions since World War II have been preceded by a dramatic increase in crude petroleum prices. Recent turbulence in energy markets has some analysts speculating that, in the immortal words of Yogi Berra, it could be deja vu all over again. But this oil price shock differs significantly from earlier episodes, leading me to believe that the economy will be able to adapt to the new pricing environment without a major economic slowdown.
June 04, 2005
Disappointing job statistics?
The May employment figures released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics yesterday sent mixed signals, revealing that U.S. job creation slowed in May even as the unemployment rate edged slightly lower.