A likely scenario from Same Facts:
- The Democrats hold the New Jersey Senate seat, and carry Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Missouri, and Virginia, but not Tennessee (or Arizona, which is reportedly in play).
- Lieberman keeps his commitment to caucus with the Democrats. We organize the Senate, start holding hearings. The White House stonewalls.
- The Iraq Study Group reports, says Iraq is a mess, mistakes have been made, and a new strategy is needed.
- Rumsfeld resigns.
- Bush appoints Lieberman to Defense.
- Lieberman acknowledges Bush's bipartisan gesture, accepts "for the good of the country."
- Rell appoints a Republican to take Lieberman's seat.
- Cheney casts the deciding vote, reorganizing the Senate with the Republicans in the majority...