Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

A likely scenario from Same Facts:

Scenario:

1. The Democrats hold the New Jersey Senate seat, and carry Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Missouri, and Virginia, but not Tennessee (or Arizona, which is reportedly in play).
2. Lieberman keeps his commitment to caucus with the Democrats. We organize the Senate, start holding hearings. The White House stonewalls.
3. The Iraq Study Group reports, says Iraq is a mess, mistakes have been made, and a new strategy is needed.
4. Rumsfeld resigns.
5. Bush appoints Lieberman to Defense.
6. Lieberman acknowledges Bush's bipartisan gesture, accepts "for the good of the country."
7. Rell appoints a Republican to take Lieberman's seat.
8. Cheney casts the deciding vote, reorganizing the Senate with the Republicans in the majority...