Understanding Botswana
Seretse Khama vs. Colonial History in Accounting for Botswana's Relative Economic Success Scott Beaulier takes on Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson:
Scott A. Beaulier, "Explaining Botswana’s Success: The Critical Role of Post-Colonial Policy" sbeauli1@gmu.edu: We need not abandon the “good institutions” account [of Botswana's growth] provided by AJR.... [But i]f we are to make the story of Botswana’s explanation... more accurate... “inclusive pre-colonial institutions” and hands-off British policy needs to be downplayed... emphasis needs to be placed on the responsible and prudent policy choices made by Khama and his administration at the time of Botswana’s independence....
[P]ost-colonial leadership must be recognized as the key determinant of a country’s economic development. Each sub-Saharan African nation faced a crucial moment after independence: if these newly independent nations tried to implement Marxist ideas, no institutions could possibly constrain them.... Botswana’s crucial moment came in 1965 when the Botswana Democratic Party and Seretse Khama won their elections.... Unlike other African leaders, Khama’s program simultaneously adopted pro-market policies on several important margins... promised low and stable taxes to mining companies... opened the doors both to trade and to people... kept marginal income taxes low to deter tax evasion and corruption... signaled a commitment to markets.
In addition, Khama’s administration preserved many important indigenous institutions... encourages the proliferation of dissenting opinions.... Every African nation could have turned out like Botswana, but most newly elected leaders chose reform paths that were not conducive to long-term economic growth. Khama, by contrast, made good policy decisions during Botswana’s post-colonial transition....
If Khama was able to get Botswana on a high growth path, why have so many other leaders pursued predatory policies? Khama clearly had economic interests consistent with his people’s economic interests, but it is easy to find many corrupt African leaders who had a similar economic incentive[s]... every leader should have an incentive to compete for tax revenue and thereby offer a good set of policies; yet, when we look at current and past governments, we often see predatory states instead of proprietary ones....
Khama was educated at Fort Hare University in the 1940s... an anti-apartheid university with an explicitly “Euro-centric” vision for Africa... Balliol College... introduced to the British common law.... Khama’s policies in Botswana were successful in establishing a strong bond with white commercial interests.... Khama had an extremely cosmopolitan attitude... whites... viewed as an asset in development.... Perhaps this stems from Khama’s interracial marriage to Ruth Wilson....
For other African nations looking to develop, the policy decisions of Seretse Khama could serve as a useful guide....
For AJR, good policy choice came about because of Botswana’s relatively favorable colonial experience, but we have seen that Botswana’s colonial experience was not conducive to the “good institutions” of private property and the rule of law. Botswana’s success was the result of good post-colonial policy choices.... If the wealth and poverty of most sub-Saharan African nations is largely the result of colonial and historical factors, then countries might be trapped by their past.... If, instead, the story of sub-Saharan Africa is one where foolish policy decisions were made by ideological leaders at the end of colonialism, then there is far more hope...
I find myself skeptical. The view that any post-colonial African leadership group could have made the decisions and followed the policies of Seretse Khama and his team is, I think, badly undermined by the fact that Seretse Khama and company are unique. But I share Beaulier's discontent with the AJR reliance on history: the historical differences between the British Empire in Bechuanaland and the British Empire elsewhere in Africa seem to me to be too small to carry the weight that AJR demand that they bear. So I am discontented.
And, of course, AIDS makes the future of Botswana look far from bright.
