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The Evolution of Household Income Volatility

Karen Dynan, Doug Elmendorf, and Dan Sichel report on changes in household income volatility. They find increases, but somewhat smaller increases than Moffitt and Gottschalk (and Gosselin) and much smaller increases than Hacker:

The Evolution of Household Income Volatility: Karen E. Dynan, Chief of Household and Real Estate Finance Section, Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board; Douglas W. Elmendorf, Senior Fellow, Economic Studies; Daniel E. Sichel, Assistant Director, Division of Research and Statistics, Federal Reserve Board: Using data from the PSID, we find that household income has become noticeably more volatile during the past thirty years. We estimate that the standard deviation of percent changes in household income rose one-fourth between the early 1970s and early 2000s. This widening in the distribution of percent changes is concentrated in the tails of the distribution, and especially in the lower tail: Changes between the 25th and 75th percentiles are almost the same size now as thirty years ago, but changes at the 10th percentile look substantially more negative. The boost in volatility occurred throughout the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, albeit not at a steady pace. Households' labor earnings and transfer payments have both become more volatile over time.

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