Henry Farrell Asks for Help
He wants to understand why the establishment Republicans are saying that Huckabee cannot win the Republican primaries:
Crooked Timber » » Huckmentum: (1) Part 1 of the case against Huckabee winning is that he’s self evidently clueless about international politics, and has bizarre ideas about domestic politics. But does this really hurt him with a Republican base which has been primed for decades to believe that book-larning and expertise are the tools of Evil Coastal Elites?... Part 2... is that Huckabee doesn’t have any sort of real organization. His decisive win in Iowa demonstrates that he doesn’t need one.... He can rely on the pastors getting out the vote for him.... Part 3... is that Huckabee has little appeal beyond the evangelical movement.... [But] Romney, McCain or Giuliani are... splitting the non-evangelical vote.... Huckabee has an in-built edge because the Republican convention awards lots of bonus delegates to states that support Republican candidates, meaning that the South (with its evangelicals) has disproportionate clout. This seems an extremely stupid policy for a party that wants to expand its appeal, but there you go. Part 4... is that Huckabee doesn’t have much money to advertise on TV. But he may be able to raise it... furthermore, he may not need TV advertising in the primaries as much as conventional candidates....
This is all, as noted above, irresponsible speculation. It may well be that the numbers make it impossible for a candidate whose main base of support is evangelicals to win the primaries. But I haven’t seen any study so far that really demonstrates this (I’d like to see it if there is one). Please raise objections to any and all of the above claims in comments, or raise new issues as appropriate.
