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January 2008

Happy Iraq "Surge" Anniversary!

Duncan Black writes:

Eschaton: Happy Surge Day: George Bush, one year ago.

A successful strategy for Iraq goes beyond military operations. Ordinary Iraqi citizens must see that military operations are accompanied by visible improvements in their neighborhoods and communities. So America will hold the Iraqi government to the benchmarks it has announced.

To establish its authority, the Iraqi government plans to take responsibility for security in all of Iraq's provinces by November. To give every Iraqi citizen a stake in the country's economy, Iraq will pass legislation to share oil revenues among all Iraqis. To show that it is committed to delivering a better life, the Iraqi government will spend $10 billion of its own money on reconstruction and infrastructure projects that will create new jobs. To empower local leaders, Iraqis plan to hold provincial elections later this year. And to allow more Iraqis to re-enter their nation's political life, the government will reform de-Baathification laws, and establish a fair process for considering amendments to Iraq's constitution.

Any of that happen?

Approx. 789 US troops died to not achieve all that stuff.


Let Me Line Up with Alex Tabarrok Against Congressional Fiscal Stimulus

At this time, let me line up alongside Alex Tabarrok, who writes:

Marginal Revolution: Against Fiscal Stimulus: As the economy slows many people from Larry Summers to Martin Feldstein are calling for a fiscal stimulus.  I am not convinced.... [B]y the time the new spending or tax cut gets through the political process the economy has moved on and the stimulus is no longer relevant except by accident.... [I]n their desperation to "do something" politicians will often do something foolish.  If a spending increase or tax cut isn't worthwhile on its own merits then it's highly unlikely to be worthwhile once we add in the benefits of "stimulus."... Economists may call for "temporary," "conditional," and "targeted" stimulus but they won't be the ones designing the plan.  Spending increases and tax cuts are policies with long term consequences that we need to think about carefully. 

And Stan Collender writes:

Christmas 2008 May Be Coming Early For Lobbyists | Capital Gains and Games: A tax lobbyist friend told me yesterday that he's gone into the economic stimulus business. In response to my inquiring look that begged for more information, he said that I'd be surprised how many industries and professions have tax reductions that they want in any economic stimulus package that is considered this year and are looking to him to come up with arguments that confirm they will, indeed, be stimulative.

In other words, even though it hasn't yet been introduced, the economic stimulus that has become all the rage in Washington these days has already become a Christmas tree with everyone and anyone who has something they want to do trying to reframe that proposal in terms of its positive impact on the economy.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, this includes the White House, with the president all but saying that the reason the economy may be slowing is because of uncertainty about whether the tax cuts enacted during his administration will be extended when they expire in 2010.

None of this is suprising. Even though its chances of being enacted are small, an economic stimulus bill may be the only thing that actually moves through the legislative process this year. In lobbyist parlance: it may be the only train leaving the station in 2008...

20071208_delong_micro.jpg I reserve the right to change my mind, but at the moment I am with Alex: stabilization policy is typically the Fed's business, and right now I see no reason why it should not be left to Fed.


Les Roberts on Tracking Deaths in Iraq

Posted by Tim Lambert at Deltoi:

Deltoid: IFHS study on violent deaths in Iraq:

1) There is more in common in the results than appears at first glance.

The NEJM article found a doubling of mortality after the invasion, we found a tripling. The big difference is that we found almost all the increase from violence, they found 1/2 the increase from violence.

IBC adds to their estimate for months after a given date; back at the end of June 2006, IBC estimated 41,000 deaths (my notes suggest 38,475 to 42,889 on June 24, 2006). This new estimate is 4 times the "widely accepted" number of that moment, our estimate was 12 times higher. Both studies suggest things are far worse than our leaders have reported.

2) There are reasons to suspect that the NEJM data had an under-reporting of violent deaths.

The death rate they recorded for before the invasion (and after) was very low....lower than neighboring countries and 1/3 of what WHO said the death rate was for Iraq back in 2002.

The last time this group (COSIT) did a mortality survey like this they also found a very low crude death rate and when they revisited the exact same homes a second time and just asked about child deaths, they recorded almost twice as many. Thus, the past record suggests people do not want to report deaths to these government employees.

We confirmed our deaths with death certificates, they did not. As the NEJM study's interviewers worked for one side in this conflict, it is likely that people would be unwilling to admit violent deaths to the study workers.

They roughly found a steady rate of violence from 2003 - 2006. Baghdad morgue data, Najaf burial data, and our data all show a dramatic increase over 2005 and 2006.

Finally, their data suggests 1/4 of deaths over the occupation through 6/06 were from violence. Our data suggest a majority of deaths were from violence. All graveyard reports I have heard are consistent with our results.


Mitt Romney Is Ahead in the Republican Race

Matthew Yglesias points out that Mitt Romney is ahead in delegates:

I saw some sentiment on TV last night that Michigan is must win for Romney, but I don't really see it that way. Second place finishes are survivable for Romney as long as different people are beating him in different places and as long as he keeps picking up delegates. The GOP side has more winner-take-all primaries than does the Democratic side and, clearly, you can't lose all of those. But basically while Romney's not in good shape, he's in at least okay shape.


A conversation yesterday:

You have to admit that Mitt Romney is indeed the class act in the Republican field.

The bar is indeed low...


links for 2008-01-09


Lost in the Intellectual Wilderness: Hoisted from Comments

Hoisted from comments: Slocum finds himself lost in the intellectual wilderness, with dusk approaching:

Comment on John Holbo's review of Dead Right: This paragraph alone makes [Holbo's piece] a classic:

Let’s call this position (what would be an evocative name?) ‘dark satanic millian liberalism’: the ethico-political theory that says laissez faire capitalism is good if and only if under capitalism the masses are forced to work in environments that break their will to want to ‘jump across the big top’, i.e. behave in a self-assertive, celebratorily individualist manner. Ergo, a dark satanic millian liberal will tend to oppose capitalism to the degree that, say, Virginia Postrel turns out to be right about capitalism ushering in a bright new age of individual liberty, in which people try new things for the sheer joy of realizing themselves, etc., etc.

The problem for libertarian types with philosophies like Postrel's is -- where do we go? The name 'dark satanic millian liberalism' is already taken -- so what do we call those Democrats who now think of those dark mills (literally in the case of John Edwards Father) as representing a kind of golden age when a good, safe, solid union job could support a family complete with a stay-at-home-mom in a company-town tract house? For whom economic change is far more a threat than an opportunity?

And are we worse off with righties who would restrict our 'pagan self-assertion' on moral grounds or by lefties who would do so on public-health grounds or 'for the children' (though, of course, the distinction between adults and children is not necessarily important--it seems we all need to be protected from ourselves, from making "bad choices")

When John & Belle's Crooked Timber features a recent thread discussing what state subsidies can best bring about equal gender roles in child rearing, what's a libertarian (who thinks the state has no more business engineering gender roles than in engineering Frum's notions of probity) to do?


New York Times Death Spiral Watch

Ezra Klein has, as usual, some very smart things to say:

EzraKlein Archive | The American Prospect: Read James Fallows on the breathtaking banality of William Kristol's writing. Sadly, this was entirely predictable. Kristol, whatever his talents, is not known for writing, well, anything. He occasionally pens an editor's note in the beginning of The Weekly Standard. He occasionally writes a hilariously wrong op-ed in The Washington Post. He sent most of this year underperforming in a regular column at Time, from which he was eventually dropped. This is what I was getting at in my post asking which conservative you would have elevated to the op-ed page. You guys suggested a variety of smart picks: Ramesh Ponnuru, Ross Douthat, Rich Brookhiser, Tyler Cowen, Bruce Bartlett, Radley Balko, and a handful more. I'd add to that list Nick Gillespie, James Manzi, Brink Lindsey, John Miller, Daniel Drezner, Damon Linker, Christopher Preble, etc, etc.

What's offensive, to me, isn't even the spectacle of the The New York Times exhibiting such insecurity that they need to hire a flagrantly wrong, technically untalented, and ideologically ugly writer for their op-ed page -- it's being so unimaginative, so contemptuous of the best-world worth of conservatism, as to pick Kristol. I would like to read more smart, interesting, conservatives. If the Times is going to insist on packing that spot with a conservative, rather than an actual leftist (which, let's be clear, they don't have), I would like a thought-provoking conservative. But Kristol was merely the nearest right-winger at hand with enough conservative fame to act as an instant shield in conversations about the Times' ideological leanings. They picked him for cover, rather than for their reader's edification, and in doing, they served us very poorly.

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?


Captain Thomas Casey Children's Fund

Fontana Labs writes:

Unfogged: Hilzoy passes along a suggestion from members of Andrew Olmsted's family: if you want to do something to honor him, consider a donation to a fund to help the children of Thomas Casey, who died in the same ambush.

Contributions can be sent here:

Capt. Thomas Casey Children's fund
P.O. Box 1306
Chester, CA 96020


Charlie Cook's Political Report

Of all the bizarre things to emerge from Iowa, perhaps the most bizarre was the conventional wisdom argument that the Iowa results were good for McCain. They were less bad for McCain than for Romney or Giuliani. But good?

OFF TO THE RACES: As Obama Emerges, The GOP Picture Gets Murkier By Charlie Cook Tuesday, Jan. 8, 2008....

Now here we are on primary day in New Hampshire, and it looks as if Huckabee's win in Iowa effectively put the brakes on Romney's momentum in what might be the best comeback since Lazarus rose from the dead. McCain appears to have an excellent chance....

On the Republican side, things will likely get very muddled, and perhaps stay that way for a while. Huckabee was unable to replicate his Iowa win in Wyoming, where Romney won, and is unlikely to win in New Hampshire, where McCain and Romney are battling it out. He also seems unlikely to win in Michigan on Jan. 15 or in Nevada on Jan. 19. Huckabee does, however, stand a decent chance in South Carolina and at least a half dozen of the Feb. 5 states. Indeed, of the19 states holding GOP primaries or caucuses on Feb. 5, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain and Romney all have states they could win.

In short, we may be looking at a very early Democratic nomination and a much longer, more sustained fight for the GOP nod.


Question to Self

20071208_delong_micro.jpg A puzzle: how and when, precisely, did I acquire the Hilles Library copy of Arno Mayer's The Persistence of the Old Regime?

It is a great book. It is also an incredibly frustrating book--frustrating because it is grossly under-footnoted and also extraordinarily vague in its lac of definition of the "Old Regime." The "Old Regime" of 1914--social Darwinist (or, rather, social Lamarckian as Eric Scott Kaufman would correct us), expansionist, imperialist, hiwrarxhial, absorptive--do not regard itself as "persisting" but rather as under mortal threat from democracy, liberalism, and socialism, and was in any case not "old" but rather "new": Franz Ferdinand von Habsburg and Chancellor Bethman-Hollweg are at least as much precursors of William Kristol, George W. Bush, and Richard Cheney as they are successors of the Earl of Chatham, Henri Quatre, and William the Silent.


Misogyny Watch

Kerry Howley:

Kerry Howley » Blog Archive » Cry Like a Man, Hillary!: Hillary Clinton bursts into tears, stunned at her own Herculean ability to keep campaigning. Edwards comes out cockswinging:

I think what we need in a commander-in-chief is strength and resolve, and presidential campaigns are tough business, but being president of the United States is also tough business.

Successful male politicians, of course, never cry. Here’s George W displaying a stunning lack of resolve. Here’s his dad falling apart over Jeb. Here’s the other Clinton conveniently welling up as he spots a camera. Romney cries; brags about crying here.

A Hit & Run commenter, faced with the above examples, concludes: “if any male candidate got all weepy he’d be dropped from consideration out of sheer self-respectability. Hilary can get away with it because ‘well, its not the same’. ”

Nope, not the same! Add to this useful list of the worst jobs in the world: consultant to any candidate with breasts. Show emotion and you’re weak; show strength and you’re a collection of servos. Respond to attacks with emotion and you’re “angry.” Respond with equanimity and you’re cold and distant. Shy from war and you’re too feminine to lead; embrace it and you’re the establishment’s whore. And the worst thing you can do? Acknowledge, in any way, shape, or form, the existence of sexism in these United States.


We Are Live at Salon This Morning...

20071208_delong_micro.jpg J. Bradford DeLong (2008), "Mike Huckabee wants to abolish the IRS," Salon: His loopy tax plan would be an economic disaster -- but it's more honest than the schemes being peddled by the establishment Republican candidates...


Mike Huckabee wants to abolish the IRS: His loopy tax plan would be an economic disaster -- but it's more honest than the schemes being peddled by the establishment Republican candidates. By Brad DeLong

Jan. 7, 2008 | For a generation Republicans have won elections by promising to do something new -- and usually strange -- to America's tax system, and by making wild and improbable claims about how great what they propose will turn out to be. This was how Ronald Reagan rode to victory in 1980 with his tax cut plan -- a plan that his own vice president and successor to be, George H.W. Bush, dismissed as "voodoo economics." This was what George W. Bush did back in 2000 when he claimed that faster economic growth would be guaranteed by yet another tax cut for the rich. And this is what Republican presidential front-runner Mike Huckabee is doing today with the "FairTax": a plan to replace the income tax and the Internal Revenue Service with a nationwide federal sales tax.

From one perspective, you have to wish Huckabee, and the other FairTax backers in the Republican field, well. All of the GOP's second-tier candidates -- Alan Keyes, Duncan Hunter and Ron Paul -- are FairTax proponents, as was the recently departed Tom Tancredo. The other major Republican candidates, including John McCain and Mitt Romney, are all singing the same old song. They are promising a) income tax cuts and b) expanded government services because c) they are willing to claim that cutting income tax rates will trigger so much extra economic growth that revenues will not suffer but will instead expand. One way or another, all the GOP front-runners except Huckabee are lying. They are either a) lying to their supporters who want tax cuts or b) lying to their supporters who want expanded government or c) lying to everybody, perhaps themselves included.

Huckabee, to his credit, doesn't think this is a good game to play.

This view, however, leaves Huckabee and company at a disadvantage. They need to distinguish themselves somehow from the establishment candidates with better organizations and more media visibility. But they don't want to find themselves in the future in the place where George H.W. Bush found himself in 1990. Two years after running for president on a promise that he would block any tax increase by telling congressional Democrats, "Read my lips, no new taxes," he was forced to raised taxes. Huckabee et al. need a new game to play.

Enter the FairTax. It promises to be a game changer. It would abolish the IRS and all current federal taxes, including Medicare, Social Security, and personal and corporate income taxes, and replace them with a national, across-the-board, 23 percent point-of-purchase retail sales tax. It would also give each household a multi-thousand-dollar "prebate" every year on their expected annual taxes and exempt people living below the poverty line from taxes altogether.

The FairTax asks: Don't we all hate the IRS? Don't we wish it would just die? And once Huckabee has made the don't-we-all-hate-the-IRS move, his establishment competitors are suddenly thrown on the defensive. They are the defenders of the hated IRS. They are the people who applaud when the IRS audits you. Cynical on the part of Huckabee? Surely. Dishonest? Somewhat. But remember that this move of Huckabee's is less cynical and dishonest than the standard Republican line on how tax cuts raise revenue, which the other front-running GOP candidates are still mouthing.

From another perspective, however, you have to scorn Huckabee. He is adding yet more layers of confusion to America's conversation about taxes. Huckabee says that the FairTax would mean a 23 percent sales tax rate on all items. First of all, the real tax rate proposed is 30 percent. The FairTax would add 30 cents to every dollar spent, but since 30 cents is 23 percent of $1.30, the FairTaxers call the rate 23 percent.

Second, and more important, both conservative and liberal economists believe the real rate would end up even higher. Estimates of the actual rate of taxation required for the FairTax to be "revenue neutral" (meaning for it to bring in exactly the same amount of revenue that the federal government collects under the current system) start at 30 percent and keep climbing. William Gale of the liberal Brookings Institution think tank says it's a de facto 44 percent sales tax. Calculations go still higher once you add in all the necessary and politically inevitable exemptions on big-ticket items -- like a new home or hospital care. Congress' Joint Committee on Taxation, which draws members from both parties and both houses, says the real rate would be 57 percent. (And this leaves aside the enormous federal outlay required by the "prebates," which even FairTax advocates say would cost the government $485 billion per year.)

Also, Huckabee calls his proposal a "fair" tax. But it's a mammoth tax cut for the crowd making more than $200,000 a year and a substantial tax increase for those making between $30,000 and $200,000 a year. Does this make economic sense? It is hard to see how: What makes the $200,000-plus crowd especially deserving of a tax cut? This is part of a pattern with Huckabee. Anxious to distinguish himself on policies from his competitors but without the staff and the network to perform due diligence on policy proposals, he ends up with ideas that aren't fully worked out and don't make much substantive policy sense.

Does the FairTax make political sense? It is hard to see how -- at least not if people know what he is really proposing. After all, a lot more people make between $30,000 and $200,000 a year than make more than $200,000. Politicians prefer, other things being equal, to take positions that are advantageous to more people rather than those that are advantageous to fewer.

So why is Huckabee doing this?

I believe the reason is that he is counting on people not knowing what he is really promising. I believe he is counting on the nigh total fecklessness of America's press corps -- a fecklessness that I at least now see as deployed with a sharp partisan edge. As economist John Irons laments on his blog, ArgMax.com: "I'm not sure how he is getting away with adopting the FairTax as part of his platform. Wouldn't Democrats be skewered in the media if they proposed a tax increase on people making between $30,000 and $200,000?" Yes.

But Huckabee is a Republican. And it is different if you are a Republican. The New York Times in its big Huckabee profile by Zev Chafets said:

Huckabee's answer to his opponents on the fiscal right has been his Fair Tax proposal ... Governor Huckabee promises that this plan would be "like waving a magic wand, releasing us from pain and unfairness." Some reputable economists think the scheme is practicable. Many others regard it as fanciful ... In any case, the Fair Tax proposal is based on extremely complex projections.

And that's all the crack journalism of the New York Times has to say. If you are seeking information in a daily newspaper, look elsewhere -- I recommend the Financial Times.

Since America's mainstream press believes that it cannot talk about the substance of policy, about who actually would gain and who would lose from a shift to a national sales tax -- that, you see, depends on "extremely complex projections" -- the only point to grab onto when talking about the national sales tax is that it eliminates the IRS. And that sounds very good. And sounding very good is what Huckabee is counting on.

But what replaces the IRS? What agency administers a national sales tax. Conservative economist and former George H.W. Bush administration official Bruce Bartlett fears the:

incredible complexity and intrusiveness of tracking every American's monthly income [for the rebate program] ... massive technical and administrative problems with collecting all federal taxes at the checkout counter and relying entirely on state governments to collect the federal government's revenue ... What is to stop [states] from slacking off [sales tax enforcement] and giving their citizens a tax cut at federal expense?

Thus this FairTax selling point is bogus too. The FairTax doesn't eliminate the IRS. It replaces the IRS with another agency -- the United States Fair Tax Federal Revenue Administration and State Tax Authority Reconciliation Service, or the USFTFRASTARS. It is true that the USFTFRASTARS doesn't audit individuals -- it audits businesses and state governments instead. This is a good thing for the $200,000-plus crowd: They are the ones who get audited, and so they get both a big tax cut and greatly increased peace of mind. But this is not a good thing for everybody else. The administrative and enforcement burden does not go away but, rather, becomes even more complicated.

Is Huckabee's FairTax smoke and mirrors? Yes. Is it voodoo economics? Yes. But remember one more thing: It is more reality based than the proposals of the establishment Republican candidates.


More Things to Read...

Steve Randy Waldmann:

Interfluidity :: Link Lovin' fer the New Year: I decided long ago not to have a "blogroll", figuring that I would naturally link to the people I read. But it hasn't really worked out that way. There are lots of amazing authors whose every word I hang on, but whom I rarely have occasion to link. This interweb is an amazing thing. Banks may implode and currencies morph to toilet paper, but intellectually, these are the best of times. There has never been a conversation like this, so many wonderful minds communicating in a forum that is open to everyone, but still relevant, even influentual. Thank goodness for this crazy machine, and for all its cogs and pulleys — writers, commenters, and especially readers.

I want to devote my first post of the year to highlighting and thanking some of the people whose words keep my brain pleasantly marinated....


What Is "Egregious Moderation"?

It's a rotisserie-league journal of politics and reality: an egregiously-moderate forum for people who want an online source for punchy liberal analysis and evisceration; especially evisceration. In the age of the internet anyone can speak in the public sphere, and anyone can be a rotisserie-league magazine editor as well. Guaranteed Betsy McCaughey free! Guaranteed Charles Murray free! No claims that the dinner-party-going "commentariat" is highly qualified because guest lists that cross ideological lines help liberals understand Bush loyalists! No Jonah Goldberg--but plenty of Spencer Ackerman!

Recently in Egregious Moderation:


Journalismus als Beruf, or Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps?

20071208_delong_micro.jpg Chris Hayes and Ezra Klein watch the toddlers on the bus--the American campaign press corps. The only solution I see is simply to shut them all down: the modern style of campaign coverage started by Teddy White in 1960 with his The Making of the President is pernicious and harmful. Its practitioners should all be sent to do something more useful. Proofreading Google Books comes to mind.

Here's Ezra Klein:

EzraKlein Archive | The American Prospect: THE PRESS CORPS: [I]t is a bit astonishing to watch the real-time narrative construction that went on at last night's debate. I must have heard the term "meltdown" in reference to Hillary 65 times. And I talked to reporters who would literally say, "I thought she did okay, but I just misjudged it" -- the aggregate conclusion of the corps became some sort of objective, or at least agreed-upon, truth that the outliers measured themselves against. Very, very odd. Particularly because the part that much of the press liked least -- her heated recitation of the programs she's fought for -- came off, to me, as one of her best moments.

Meanwhile, there is, on some level, an acknowledgment of the weirdness of all this. I was at a bar talking to some leftier members of the press last night when a reporter wandered up and asked if "we were discussing Hillary's meltdown, or talking about real things?" Most of the folks I talked to happily admitted how unbelievably awful and surreal the spin room is, but everyone was in there. At one point, I asked an older reporter why everyone was assembed together for this debate, and he turned to me and said, "there's no good reason. Reporters are creatures of habit, and all this is now habit"...

Here's Chris Hayes:

Why Campaign Coverage So Often Sucks: [A] quick thought about the psychology of the political press. Reporting at event like this is exciting and invigorating, but it's also terrifying... daunting and the whole time you think: "Am I missing something? What's going? Oh man, I should go interview that guy in the parka with the fifteen buttons on his hat." You fear getting lost, or missing some important piece of news, or making an ass out of yourself....

I realized for the first time yesterday, that this essential terror isn't just a byproduct of inexperience. It never goes away. Veteran reporters are just as panicked about getting lost or missing something, just as confused about who to talk to. This why reporters move in packs....

You're an outsider, standing on the edges observing the people who are there doing the actual stuff of politics: listening to a candidate, cheering, participating. So reporters run with that distance: they crack wise, they kibbitz in the back, they play up their detachment. That leads to coverage that is often weirdly condescending....

[T]he worst features of campaign reporting emanate from the kinds of psychological defenses that reporters erect to deal with their insecurities.... [M]any critiques of the political press express the belief that what's wrong with coverage stems from the superficiality and venality of those who are practicing it. That's certainly true... but just as you can't hope to fundamentally reform education by calling for a lot more of great teachers, you can't make political coverage better by simply hoping for better reporters. You need to deal with the structural issues that reinforce these tendencies (Oh, and fire the hacks)...

Chris Hayes's ideas on how to deal with the "structural issues":

Is Good Campaign Coverage Possible? - Christopher Hayes’ blog: I think we can all agree that day-in, day-out campaign coverage often sucks, but the question is why? There’s a number of reasons, but primarily I think the papers’ entire approach to covering campaigns is hopelessly flawed and puts reporters in a position in which they can’t help but produce trivinalia.... [The] reporter spends all day, every day, following the candidate.... It’s an awful existence.... [Y]ou sit through endless, mind-numbing hours listening to the candidate spew the same safe inanities, you inevitably start to snoop around for new “angles”... Al Gore sighed during the debate! The point is that all of this trivial bullshit is just a natural outgrowth of the need to break up the sheer monotony of the campaign.

Then... the longer a reporter spends with a campaign, the more likely they’ll develop either a kind of contempt for the candidate and the campaign or a strange version of stockholm syndrome....

Finally, we have the perenial complaint that the coverage focuses on the horse-race and the theater of the campaign and not on the issues.... [C]onsider the imbalance in expertise between a campaign and those who cover it. When Obama releases a tax plan, it’s a product of a team of policy experts.... who know the terrain inside and out. But the reporter who has to file the deadline piece about it doesn’t have any expertise on tax policy. So how could their coverage be anything but shallow?

All of these structural flaws have solutions, and herewith my humble recommendations:

  1. Rotate reporters....
  2. Go more for features.... The Times has been doing this, though, their feature coverage has tended to focused on such burning issues as what Hillary Clinton wrote in letters to a penpal 35 years ago....
  3. Assign campaign coverage to beat reporters. When Obama released his tax plan, the article that ran in the TImes about the plan was authored by the Obama beat reporter Jeff Zeleny.... Meanwhile, the Times happens to have on staff the Pulizer-Prize-winning David Cay Johnston, who is unquestionably the single best tax reporter in the country...

20071208_delong_micro.jpg I would prefer to start with Max Weber (1919), Politik als Beruf (München und Leipzig: Verlag von Duncker & Humblot)--in English at http://www.ne.jp/asahi/moriyuki/abukuma/weber/lecture/politics_vocation.html--and:

There are two ways of making politics one's vocation: Either one lives 'for' politics or one lives 'off' politics.... He who lives 'for' politics makes politics his life, in an internal sense. Either he enjoys the naked possession of the power he exerts, or he nourishes his inner balance and self-feeling by the consciousness that his life has meaning in the service of a 'cause.'... He who strives to make politics a permanent source of income lives 'off' politics as a vocation....

The leadership of a state or of a party by men who (in the economic sense of the word) live exclusively for politics and not off politics means necessarily a 'plutocratic' recruitment of the leading political strata.... [P]olitics can be conducted 'honorifically' and then, as one usually says, by 'independent,' that is, by wealthy, men, and especially by rentiers. Or, political leadership is made accessible to propertyless men who must then be rewarded...

Weber wants to see a world in which the politically active live both "for" and "off" politics. He believes that if the politically active live only "for" politics--well, then we have a political class of rentiers and plutocrats, which is not healthy. It must be possible to not just make a difference but make a living off of politics if we are to have a healthy politics and a good society.

But just as it is bad to have a politically-active class that lives "for" but not "off" politics, so I believe it is probably worse to have a politically-active class that lives "off" but not "for" politics--in which the desires to make a difference and to help America are submerged beneath the desire to keep your paycheck coming." Consider the example of Perry Bacon, Jr., of the *Washington Post, who looks at a webpage[1] that starts:

Email rumor alleges that U.S. presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama is a loyal Muslim who has lied about his religious background, including his claim to being a devout Christian

Description: Email rumor
Circulating since: January 2007
Status: False

Subject: Fwd: Be careful, be very careful.

Barack Hussein Obama was born in Honolulu, Hawaii, to Barack Hussein Obama Sr. (black muslim) of Nyangoma-Kogelo, Siaya District, Kenya, and Ann Dunham of Wichita, Kansas. (white atheist ).... His mother married Lolo Soetoro -- a Muslim -- moving to Jakarta with Obama when he was six years old.... Obama takes great care to conceal the fact that he is a Muslim.... Since it is politically expedient to be a Christian when you are seeking political office in the United States, Obama joined the United Church of Christ to help purge any notion that he is still a Muslim...

and transforms it into:

Perry Bacon: Another e-mail, on a site called Snopes.com that tracks Internet rumors, starts, "Be careful, be very careful." It notes that "Obama takes great care to conceal the fact that he is a Muslim," and that "since it is politically expedient to be a Christian when you are seeking political office in the United States, Obama joined the United Church of Christ to help purge any notion that he is still a Muslim"...

omitting the "Status: False" that comes right before the beginning of Perry Bacon, Jr.'s quote.

How could anyone come to do this? The answer is that they are living "off" poitics and belong to an ethics-free organization also devoted to living "off" politics, and that they think that their editor Len Downie and their editor's boss Donald Graham will be pleased and will reward their smearing of Barack Obama. I do not find it explicable any other way.

Weber reaches a similar conclusion about the journalism of his day. Party officials who live "off" politics can still work for their causes and keep their jobs in the party apparatus whether elections are won or lost. Journalists have a harder task, because the structural pressures tend to squeeze the part that lives "for" politics out of existence. Indeed, Weber says, given the structural pressures on the industry what is remarkable is not that so many journalists are so bad ("failures and worthless men," "disdain and pitiful cowardice") but that there are a "great number of valuable and quite genuine men" in the profession:

Not everybody realizes that a really good journalistic accomplishment requires at least as much 'genius' as any scholarly accomplishment, especially because of the necessity of producing at once and 'on order,' and because of the necessity of being effective, to be sure, under quite different conditions of production. It is almost never acknowledged that the responsibility of the journalist is far greater, and that the sense of responsibility of every honorable journalist is, on the average, not a bit lower than that of the scholar, but rather, as the war has shown, higher.... Nobody believes that the discretion of any able journalist ranks above the average of other people, and yet that is the case. The quite incomparably graver temptations, and the other conditions that accompany journalistic work at the present time, produce those results which have conditioned the public to regard the press with a mixture of disdain and pitiful cowardice....

[T]he journalist career remains under all circumstances one of the most important avenues of professional political activity. It is not a road for everybody, least of all for weak characters, especially for people who can maintain their inner balance only with a secure status position.... [T]he journalist's life is an absolute gamble in every respect and under conditions that test one's inner security in a way that scarcely occurs in any other situation.... The inner demands that are directed precisely at the successful journalist are especially difficult. It is, indeed, no small matter to frequent the salons of the powerful on this earth on a seemingly equal footing and often to be flattered by all because one is feared, yet knowing all the time that having hardly closed the door the host has perhaps to justify before his guests his association with the 'scavengers from the press.' Moreover, it is no small matter that one must express oneself promptly and convincingly about this and that, on all conceivable problems of life--whatever the 'market' happens to demand--and this without becoming absolutely shallow and above all without losing one's dignity by baring oneself.... It is not astonishing that there are many journalists who have become human failures and worthless men. Rather, it is astonishing that, despite all this, this very stratum includes such a great number of valuable and quite genuine men, a fact that outsiders would not so easily guess...

As you can guess, my solutions are quite different from Chris Hayes's. I would suggest:

  • We now have an upward leap in the possibilities for civil society--the possibility of a thick and healthy political class of amateurs who who live, part-time, "for" politics without having to live "off" it. They won't have to rent out their souls--and so won't be subject to the same deformations--and their contempt for those who do rent out their souls cannot help but have a healthy influence. Encourage the growth of this class wherever possible
  • Cut the campaign press corps and the Washington insider press corps off at the knees both intellectually and financially: those who live "off" and not "for" politics and have no professional ethic that their business is to inform rather than mislead--don't encourage them. The sooner the Slates and the Washington Posts and the Times and the Newsweeks and the AEIs go out of business, the better.
  • Encourage the growth and financial viability of those who live for as well as off politics--the American Prospects, the Democracy Journals, the Cato Institutes, the Reasons, the Nations, the Independent Institutes, and so forth.
  • Encourage the growth and financial viability of those who have a solid sense of professional ethics--who are in the business of informing rather than entertaining or misleading: the Atlantics, the National Journals, the Financial Timeses, the Economists--as long as it stops trying to turn sections of itself into the Wall Street Journal editorial page--and so on.

The coming of the internet and with it the rise to dominance of Google may well have changed forever the underlying structural finances of the journalism business. Money follows attention, and attention may well follow Google-fu, and Google-fu may well follow the collective voting of the link-writing web-enabled amateur living-for-politics class. Those journalists who don't care about America but want to live "off" politics may find that they can keep making a living only through gaining the approval via link-driven collective Google-voting of those of those who live "for" politics and love America--or so the collapse of TimesSelect suggests.

Complex? No. As the late John M. Ford advised: Say what you mean. Bear witness. Iterate. If those who are interested in raising the level of the debate use the evolving mechanisms of the internet to read those who don't raise the level of the debate out of the conversation, things could turn around quite quickly.


[1] Note: Bacon claims that the webpage he viewed was at http://snopes.com/. But the only webpage at Snopes that is even close in subject does not contain Bacon's quotes and was last updated on March 15, 2007. The page that does contain Bacon's quotes is at About's Urban Legends page: http://urbanlegends.about.com/library/bl_barack_obama_muslim.htm.

Only seven distinct pages indexed on Google contain Bacon's quotes: "Be careful, be very careful" and "Obama takes great care to conceal the fact that he is a Muslim". They are:

http://urbanlegends.about.com/library/bl_barack_obama_muslim.htm
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/11/28/AR2007112802757_pf.html
http://blogrunner.com/snapshot/D/4/3/foes_use_obamas_muslim_ties_to_fuel_rumors_about_him/
http://my.barackobama.com/page/community/person/gG2klh
http://www.progressivedailybeacon.com/more.php?id=1751
http://www.rightyblogs.com/national/feed.php?channel=99&iid=24987&y=2007&m=11&d=29
http://digbysblog.blogspot.com/2007_01_01_digbysblog_archive.html


Now I Am Really Flummoxed!

Atrios sends us to Irvine Housing Blog:

Irvine Housing Blog » Blog Archive » Stillwater:

Asking Price: $1,300,000
Income Requirement: $260,000
Downpayment Needed: $325,000
Purchase Price: $2,500,000
Purchase Date: 1/23/2007

Address: 26 Stillwater, Newport Coast, CA 92657

Beds: 4 Baths: 3.5 Sq. Ft.: 2,000 $/Sq. Ft.: $650 Lot Size: - Type: Single Family Residence Style: Other Year Built: 2005 Stories: Two Levels View(s): Valley, Has View Area: Newport Coast County: Orange MLS#: M107854 Status: Active Redfin: 128 days Unsold in 90+ days

From Redfin, “Beautiful Newport home. Jack & Jill bed & bath detached Casita could be office or guest quarters. Short sale subject to bank approval.”

I thought the high end was immune? This isn’t supposed to happen in Newport Coast. This is a 48% loss in less than one year! The 2007 transaction looks suspiciously like fraud, but it could just be a really stupid flipper. Based on available information, the purchase seems legitimate. In either case, this house is listed at nearly 1/2 off its sale price from just one year ago. Apparently it was listed for a time at $1.8M and wasn’t selling, so the price was dropped all the way to $1.3. Check out this listing where they were trying to get $2,112,308. If you think this is a one-off, check out this listing for 10 San Sovino with its $550,000 reduction. (Thank you, SOC.)

This will be a new record: the total loss assuming a 6% commission will be (drumroll please) $1,278,000. Some party is going to absorb a HUGE loss. Does that satisfy your schadenfreude fix for the day?

8084BC92-873A-4194-B74A-4D8B241B2CD9.jpg


Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps?

A message from the Communications Workers of America, about the Washington Post:

Background: The 400 production workers at the Washington Post have not seen a wage increase in five years. Five years.  For much of that time, since May 2003, the workers have been fighting for a fair labor contract.  But the Post has been holding things up.  And now the Post is after the workers’ employee-funded pension plan....

What Is The Main Issue Holding Up A Contract? Right now, the production workers have a national pension plan administered jointly by a board of employer and union trustees. But the Post is now demanding the right to withdraw from that plan, as well as requesting the unilateral right to decide what to do with the money in the plan. That money has been diverted from the workers pay raises over the last 30 years.  It belongs to the workers.  That’s right - the Post is asking to take pension money that has been coming out of its workers’ paychecks.

You might say, “But times are tough. Everybody's got to tighten their belt. Right?”

But times aren't tough for the Washington Post. In 2006, the company reported $324.5 million in profits, and Post executives rewarded themselves with millions in bonuses.  

Let's Review: $324.5 million in profits for the Post, millions in bonuses for Post executives, — and absolutely nothing for production workers.

No raises. No parity. No help on health care. No improved benefits. Is this the same Washington Post that claims to be a watchdog against corporate greed? We don't think so.


Henry Farrell Asks for Help

He wants to understand why the establishment Republicans are saying that Huckabee cannot win the Republican primaries:

Crooked Timber » » Huckmentum: (1) Part 1 of the case against Huckabee winning is that he’s self evidently clueless about international politics, and has bizarre ideas about domestic politics. But does this really hurt him with a Republican base which has been primed for decades to believe that book-larning and expertise are the tools of Evil Coastal Elites?... Part 2... is that Huckabee doesn’t have any sort of real organization. His decisive win in Iowa demonstrates that he doesn’t need one.... He can rely on the pastors getting out the vote for him.... Part 3... is that Huckabee has little appeal beyond the evangelical movement.... [But] Romney, McCain or Giuliani are... splitting the non-evangelical vote.... Huckabee has an in-built edge because the Republican convention awards lots of bonus delegates to states that support Republican candidates, meaning that the South (with its evangelicals) has disproportionate clout. This seems an extremely stupid policy for a party that wants to expand its appeal, but there you go. Part 4... is that Huckabee doesn’t have much money to advertise on TV. But he may be able to raise it... furthermore, he may not need TV advertising in the primaries as much as conventional candidates....

This is all, as noted above, irresponsible speculation. It may well be that the numbers make it impossible for a candidate whose main base of support is evangelicals to win the primaries. But I haven’t seen any study so far that really demonstrates this (I’d like to see it if there is one). Please raise objections to any and all of the above claims in comments, or raise new issues as appropriate.


New York Times Death Spiral Watch: Michael Luo and David Kirkpatrick

Outsourced to The Revealer:

The Revealer: Huckabee Makes the NYT Nervous: The NYT's explanation for why Huck won Iowa is a perfect example of what many evangelicals are talking about when they say that the NYT just doesn't get them. Noting that Huck drew a third more evangelicals to the polls -- 60% of the Republican turnout -- than in years past, Michael Luo and David D. Kirkpatrick fail to quote any of them. Instead, they echo establishment G.O.P. talking points by pointing out that Huck's "natural allies among Christian conservative leaders" don't like him. By this, they mean Paul Weyrich, Jim Dobson, and Pat Robertson -- precisely the people so many evangelicals have been saying don't represent them anymore. But social movements make the NYT nervous -- they need "leaders" to talk to, "opinion-makers." That same mistake leads them to reproduce the talking points of economic royalists who falsely accuse Huck--an establishment outsider--of populist pandering. Only, that mistake plays in Huckabee's favor -- he may sound like William Jennings Bryan, but he's proposing an economic program that in practice will be to the right of Ronald Reagan's.

And, indeed, The Revealer is correct. Here's how the story opens and sources itself:

At Huckabee Central, Cheers for Evangelical Base - New York Times: Just as the Republican caucuses began on Thursday at 6:30 p.m., a small group of women and children joined hands in the middle of the ballroom at Mike Huckabee’s headquarters here and began to pray for his election. Mr. Huckabee, a former Baptist minister, rode a crest of evangelical Christian support to victory on Thursday over his rival Mitt Romney, capping a remarkable ascent over the last two months from near the bottom of the Republican field. A poll of people entering the Republican caucuses on Thursday showed more than 8 in 10 of his supporters identified themselves as evangelicals. The same surveys showed extraordinary turnout among evangelicals, who represented some 60 percent of Republican caucusgoers. In years past, Republican Party leaders in Iowa put evangelical turnout at about 40 percent.

[Mr. Romney’s advisers] had been saying....

[Unsourced] Mr. Huckabee struck a chord among Iowa Republicans with a distinctive mixture of humor, Christian conservatism and economic populism. His stump speeches evoked comparisons to the prairie populism of William Jennings Bryan....

[Huckabee] He told voters to pick a candidate who was “consistent” and “authentic”...

[Unsourced] The centerpiece of his economic policies is the Fair Tax, a proposal to replace all payroll and income taxes with the combination of a national sales tax and cash rebates for the poor. Enthusiasts like Mr. Huckabee describe it as a way to jump-start the nation’s economy and diminish inequality. Critics call it regressive and unworkable....

[Unsourced] Mr. Huckabee’s success has startled and unnerved many in his own party. His campaign has met derision and doubt from all three factions of the coalition that has made up the Republican Party since the election of President Ronald Reagan: antitax, foreign policy and social conservatives....

[Unsourced] Even his natural allies among Christian conservative leaders have been slow to embrace Mr. Huckabee...


links for 2008-01-05


RIP Major Andrew Olmsted

From Bitch, Ph.D.:

Bitch Ph.D.: So much for post-caucus euphoria: ObWi's Andy Olmsted was killed yesterday in Iraq while we were all being happy about Iowa. Head on over and leave your condolences for his family and friends.

She sends us to http://obsidianwings.blogs.com/obsidian_wings/2008/01/andy-olmsted.html#more:

0606D24E-7D7C-4049-B865-283D64CEB929.jpg[F]or those who knew me and feel this pain, I think it's a good thing to realize that this pain has been felt by thousands and thousands (probably millions, actually) of other people all over the world. That is part of the cost of war, any war, no matter how justified. If everyone who feels this pain keeps that in mind the next time we have to decide whether or not war is a good idea, perhaps it will help us to make a more informed decision. Because it is pretty clear that the average American would not have supported the Iraq War had they known the costs going in. I am far too cynical to believe that any future debate over war will be any less vitriolic or emotional, but perhaps a few more people will realize just what those costs can be the next time.

This may be a contradiction of my above call to keep politics out of my death, but I hope not. Sometimes going to war is the right idea. I think we've drawn that line too far in the direction of war rather than peace, but I'm a soldier and I know that sometimes you have to fight if you're to hold onto what you hold dear. But in making that decision, I believe we understate the costs of war; when we make the decision to fight, we make the decision to kill, and that means lives and families destroyed. Mine now falls into that category; the next time the question of war or peace comes up, if you knew me at least you can understand a bit more just what it is you're deciding to do, and whether or not those costs are worth it.

"This is true love. You think this happens every day?" --Westley, The Princess Bride

"Good night, my love, the brightest star in my sky." --John Sheridan, Babylon 5

This is the hardest part. While I certainly have no desire to die, at this point I no longer have any worries. That is not true of the woman who made my life something to enjoy rather than something merely to survive. She put up with all of my faults, and they are myriad, she endured separations again and again...I cannot imagine being more fortunate in love than I have been with Amanda. Now she has to go on without me, and while a cynic might observe she's better off, I know that this is a terrible burden I have placed on her, and I would give almost anything if she would not have to bear it. It seems that is not an option. I cannot imagine anything more painful than that, and if there is an afterlife, this is a pain I'll bear forever.

I wasn't the greatest husband. I could have done so much more, a realization that, as it so often does, comes too late to matter. But I cherished every day I was married to Amanda. When everything else in my life seemed dark, she was always there to light the darkness. It is difficult to imagine my life being worth living without her having been in it. I hope and pray that she goes on without me and enjoys her life as much as she deserves. I can think of no one more deserving of happiness than her.

"I will see you again, in the place where no shadows fall." --Ambassador Delenn, Babylon 5

I don't know if there is an afterlife; I tend to doubt it, to be perfectly honest. But if there is any way possible, Amanda, then I will live up to Delenn's words, somehow, some way. I love you.


http://blogs.rockymountainnews.com/denver/iraqiarmy/archives/2007/06/why.html http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20080103/wl_mideast_afp/iraqustoll_080103192540 http://blogs.rockymountainnews.com/denver/iraqiarmy/archives/2007/12/seeking_support.html#comments


An Unhappy Payroll Report

The BLS says:

The unemployment rate rose to 5.0 percent in December, while nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged (+18,000), the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job growth in several service-providing industries, including professional and technical services, health care, and food services, was largely offset by job losses in construction and manufacturing. Average hourly earnings rose by 7 cents, or 0.4 percent....

[T]he unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage point to 5.0 percent [in December]. A year earlier... the jobless rate was 4.4 percent.... In December, unemployment rates rose for several major worker groups--adult men (to 4.4 percent), adult women (4.4 percent), whites (4.4 percent), and Hispanics (6.3 percent). The unemployment rates for teenagers (17.1 percent) and blacks (9.0 percent) were little changed. The unemployment rate for Asians was 3.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted....

About 1.3 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally attached to the labor force in December. These individuals wanted and were available to work and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Among the marginally attached, there were 363,000 discouraged workers in December, up from 274,000 a year earlier....

Total nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged at 138.5 million in December following gains of 159,000 in October and 115,000 in November...


Is Our Long National Nightmare Finally Over?

From Publius of Obsidian Wings:

Obsidian Wings: More Iowa: Random Iowa observations below the fold.... I tried to limit myself to non-obvious points... pardon the lack of polish.

Obama’s Ceiling:... Mathematically, [Obama's] victory has no significance. Politically, it’s too early to know.... But that said, the way he won tends to vindicate his candidacy’s argument... makes his case... that he possesses the most potential energy – i.e., he has the most potential to forge new political coalitions. In short, he risks a low floor, but promises a high ceiling. The way he won tonight... support[s] the latter... he expanded the pie, bringing in young and independent... [and] previously disengaged voters....

Am I Part of the Problem?: Many others have noted the ridiculousness of the Iowa caucuses... an event... whose importance is predicated entirely on the presumption of post-election spin and hype.... I have an easy defense though... it is THE story, so of course I’m going to write about it.... I contribute to the very post-election hype that I criticize and that allows it to exist... a classic collective action problem, from the media/blogger perspective.... [F]ix it... [by] changing... structural conditions... fight very hard to end Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status.

Hillary Ain’t Out: Obama’s win may well prove enormously significant. But don’t for a second think that Hillary is anywhere close to beaten.... money... organizational support... 49 states left to go... even though it’s the worst possible result for her... the Iowa loss now allows Clinton to play the underdog role, and shifts a lot of the spotlight (and scrutiny) toward Obama. It’s still obviously better to win. But the narrative will shift.... [T]he story will shift... to “can she fight back?” Doing well in later contests will allow her to seize the “Comeback Kid” mantle, which is the media’s favorite of all....

Change: For reasons I’ve stated with considerable snark, I don’t think Iowa shows us all that much.... Like any good, card-carrying liberal blogger, I’m skeptical of mindless praise of bipartisanship and unity and all that. But that said, the years 1994-2008 have been a nasty political era... there’s a broad sense of institutional failure, fueled in large part by Bush’s colossal failures and incompetence.... Though it might be hokey, Huckabee and Obama’s “Come Together” rhetoric works because (1) there is a thirst for it; and (2) they are more credible messengers because they haven’t been on the national scene. Accordingly, their victory tends to vindicate Mark Schmitt’s argument that Obama’s bipartisan rhetoric should be understood as an offensive political weapon rather than Broderish high wankery. (I’ve got a much longer post on this point in the queue).

Obama’s Code: I’m watching Obama’s acceptance speech as I type – and it’s very good. I’ve read a good bit about how Obama doesn’t really emphasize race and racial issues on the stump. But in listening to the beginning of the speech, I realize that maybe he does.... [H]e speaks with the cadences and phrase repetitions of black preachers... he uses language... simultaneously... (1) calling for political unity; (2) echoing the language of the civil rights struggle. In other words, he’s speaking to African-Americans without whites necessarily realizing it. Consider the following passage for instance, which I’ve already seen 5 times....

They said this day would never come. They said our sights were set too high. They said this country was too divided, too disillusioned to ever come together. But on this January night at this defining moment in history, you have done what the cynics said we couldn’t do.

True, he did mention Selma tonight. But take that for it’s worth. Note too that this passage is the intended soundbite, and it seems to work both ways...

20071208_delong_micro.jpg Kudos to the Democratic caucus-goers of Iowa. They had a choice of at least five candidates--Obama, Edwards, Rodham Clinton, Richardson, Dodd--whom I or people I know and totally respect both know well and think would be likely to make superb presidents. A plurality chose Obama, with Edwards and Rodham Clinton gaining substantial support as well. This is a good situation--every serious Republican policy person I know would give at least one organ of generation and one eye and one toe to have in their current mix a candidate half as qualified as the least qualified of these three.

This is also a day which makes Thaddeus Stevens and Frederick Douglass kiss the sky and shout hosannas--a day for which they worked but did not believe would ever come. A day when the corn-fed white voters of a state--or at least the Democratic Party's enthusiastic faithful of a state--choose a Black man, Barack Obama, as the one whom they think is most qualified to be President of the United States of America.

This is a sign that our longest and deepest national nightmare may finally be coming to an end.

Thaddeus Stevens and Frederick Douglass would be ecstatic on the one hand, but on the other hand they would be sad that their party--the Republican Party--is MIA. And they would rain down curses on Richard Nixon, William Rehnquist, and Barry Goldwater, who turned the Republican Party into the misbegotten monster it is today, a monstrous horror that led Colin Powell in 1996 to recoil and give up before he started in his attempt to do on the Republican side what Barack Obama is doing on the Democratic side today.

On the other hand, maybe our long national nightmare is not over. Remember John McCain's line about Chelsea Clinton--that she "is so ugly because her father is Janet Reno." Didn't do McCain any harm in the Republican Party. Didn't do McCain any harm with America's establishment press corps. It was bad enough watching the Freak Show in the press and the Republican Party go after the sleazy hick from Arkansas with the zipper problem and his cold castrating l------ b---- of a wife. Are we now ready for the to go after the Muslim terrorist n----- from Chicago?


Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps?

This morning's New York Times death spiral watch:

John M. Broder and Adam Nagourney: Obama and Huckabee Win in Iowa Vote: Senator Barack Obama won the Iowa Democratic caucuses tonight in a stunning show of strength by a young African-American candidate who was virtually unknown to America three years ago. He defeated Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, the former first lady, and former Senator John Edwards, the Democrats’ vice presidential nominee in 2004 by a substantial margin.

On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee, the folksy former Arkansas governor and Southern Baptist preacher, defeated the vastly better funded and organized Mitt Romney of Massachusetts, riding a wave of support by evangelical Christians who said they were drawn to Mr. Huckabee because they believed he shared their values.

The Iowa caucuses drew intense public interest and record turnout on the Democratic side, which featured three compelling candidates waging a fierce campaign that turned on the question of change versus experience. Democratic caucusgoers strongly endorsed Mr. Obama’s vow to change the nature of politics in Washington, decisively preferring his case to Mrs. Clinton’s emphasis on her experience in public life as a senator and the spouse of a president and a governor.

20071208_delong_micro.jpg Notice: we are three paragraphs into the story and not a single piece of news except that Obama and Huckabee "won". No numbers about how many people attended the caucuses. No numbers about how Iowans are and are not representative of the nation. No numbers about how caucus goers are or are not representative of party activists, party members, or the overall population.

I would call this "horse-race journalism," but the first words out of any horse-race journalist's mouth are always something like:

War Admiral by two lengths over Scintillator at five furlongs.

I won't insult horse-race journalists.

Broder and Nagourney continue, giving as little information as possible:

Mr. Romney conceded early in the evening after falling more than 10 percentage points behind Mr. Huckabee. Mr. Romney, who outspent Mr. Huckabee by more than four to one, conceded in an interview on Fox News. “Congratulations on the first round to Mike,” he said. But he described Iowa as the first inning of a “50-inning ballgame.”... Mr. Romney sought to frame his defeat as something of a comeback, saying he had trailed Mr. Huckabee by more than 20 points a few weeks ago.... The crowd at Huckabee headquarters was ebullient....

In a caucus at the Plymouth Congregational Church in Des Moines, a record 454 Democrats appeared. The enthusiastic crowd heavily favored Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. Jon Muller, 42, the chief financial officer of an education nonprofit group, was one of the Obama backers. “One of the charges against Iowa is that we don’t really represent the rest of the country,” he said, alluding to the fact that blacks form less than three percent of the caucus participants. “Here’s a chance to make a statement about the inclusiveness of Iowa.”

A sample of early arrivals at the Democratic caucus sites told interviewers that the war in Iraq was the most important issue facing the country, followed closely by the economy and health care. A slim majority of the sample of Democratic caucusgoers said that they were looking for a candidate who could bring about needed change, while only one in five cited experience as the most important.... Those who cited health care as the top issue tended to support Mrs. Clinton, who also attracted strong support from older voters and women. Those who decided whom to support in the last three days tended to back former Mr. Edwards.

And, of course, without numbers of any kind, we have no idea what words like "tended" might mean. Then, finally, we get some numbers:

About a third of Republicans interviewed before they cast their votes cited illegal immigration as the most important issue.... followed by the economy and terrorism. The Republican sample included nearly 60 percent who identified themselves as evangelical Christians, who expressed support for Mr. Huckabee by a two-to-one margin over Mr. Romney. Those who make up their minds in the past three days tended to support Mr. Romney.

"Tended," again. I'll cut it off there, because then the canned blather begins.

Shame on John M. Broder, Adam Nagourney, Julie Bosman in Fort Madison, Cate Doty in Waterloo, Patrick Healy in Cedar Rapids, David D. Kirkpatrick in Fort Dodge, Michael Luo in Bettendorf, and Marc Santora in Derry, N.H. They know damned well they should do a lot better. They just choose not to.


Bruce Bartlett on the "Fair Tax"

He writes:

http://taxprof.typepad.com/taxprof_blog/files/bartlett_fair_tax.pdf: The VAT solves all of the administrative and compliance problems that FairTax supporters are either ignorant of or just assume away. Virtually all reputable economists who have looked at this issue have concluded that if the United States wishes to adopt a national consumption tax, either as a supplementary tax or a replacement for all or part of the existing tax system, the VAT makes far more sense than something like the FairTax. This has also been the conclusion of every foreign country that examined the issue...

From Bruce Bartlett (2007), "Why the Fair Tax Won't Work," Tax Notes, December 24, 2007.


Department of "Huh?"

20071208_delong_micro.jpg Oh dear.

This simply will not do.

Tony Judt attacks what he calls Bob Reich for what he calls his "framing assumption"--the conflict between human-as-member-of-market-society and human-as-member-of-political-society:

The Wrecking Ball of Innovation - The New York Review of Books: Reich's framing assumption: that our interests as "investors" and "consumers" have triumphed over our capacity to act as "citizens."... [W]hy would we or our representatives choose suddenly, in Reich's terms, to act as disinterested "citizens" rather than the self-seeking "consumers" or "investors" we have become?... Reich's way of cataloging human behavior-—as though our affinities and preferences ("consumer," "investor," "citizen") can be partitioned and pigeon-holed into noncommunicating boxes--is not convincing...

And then Judt picks up that same framing assumption and runs all the way down the field with it:

The Wrecking Ball of Innovation - The New York Review of Books: The market requires norms, habits, and "sentiments" external to itself to hold it together, to ensure the very political stability that capitalism needs in order to thrive. But it also tends to corrode those same practices and sentiments. This much has long been clear.... [The market] cannot reproduce the noncommercial institutions and relations--of cohesion, trust, custom, restraint, obligation, morality, authority—-that it inherited and which the pursuit of individual economic self-interest tends to undermine rather than reinforce.... [T]he relationship between capitalism and democracy (or capitalism and political freedom) should not be taken for granted.... [M]odern democracies... need to be bound by something more than the pursuit of private economic advantage... the idea of a society held together by pecuniary interests alone is, in Mill's words, "essentially repulsive." A civilized society requires more than self-interest, whether deluded or enlightened, for its shared narrative of purpose.... The danger today is that, having devalued public action, we are no longer clear just what does bind us together...

With all respect to Professor Judt, this simply will not do. One simply cannot reverse field so completely within four pages, and expect one's readers not to notice.

There are other oddities in Judt's review too.

Here one cannot help but smell more than a whiff of Jean-Paul Sartre's declaration that it was good to cover up the crimes of Stalin lest the workers lose heart and stop believing in Communism:

The twentieth-century state in its "soul-engineering" guise has surely left a bad taste.... But in reducing (and implicitly discrediting) the state... we have also devalued those goods and services that represent the collectivity and its shared purposes.... And this carries a very considerable risk...

Here one cannot help but smell more than a whiff of the feckless upper-class Greenwich Village dweller sneering at those workers in Shanghai who think that they might like to have air conditioning:

[C]ontemporary economic writers often tend to the reductive: "In the long run," three respected economists write, "only one economic statistic really matters: the growth of productivity." And today's dogma-—like other dogmas of the recent past-—is indifferent to those aspects of human existence not readily subsumed into its own terms of reference.... Is [economic] growth a self-evident good? Whether contemporary wealth creation and efficiency-induced productivity growth actually deliver the benefits they proclaim—-opportunity, upward mobility, happiness, well-being, affluence, security-—is perhaps more of an open question than we are disposed to acknowledge. What if growth increased social resentments rather than alleviating them?...

Here one cannot help but note that Judt simply has not done his homework--simply did not follow the news in the 1990s--does not realize that Reich was, inside the Clinton administration, an opponent of the 1996 welfare reform--and so does not realize what he is doing as he attacks Reich using the exact same arguments Reich deployed to try to convince Clinton to veto the welfare reform bill:

Take the case of welfare reform—-in which Reich himself was very active, both as Bill Clinton's labor secretary and as the author many years ago of a proposal to replace public welfare with grants to businesses that hire the unemployed.... Universal rights and need-based provisions were replaced with a system of "work-enabling" incentives and rewards: the proclaimed goal of getting people "off" welfare accompanied a belief that the outcome would be both morally exemplary and economically efficient. But what looks like sensible economic policy carries an implicit civic cost. One of the fundamental objectives of the twentieth-century welfare state was to make full citizens of everyone.... The outcome would be a more cohesive society, with no category of person excluded or less "deserving." But the new, "discretionary" approach makes an individual's claim upon the collectivity once again contingent on good conduct.... [M]odern welfare reform thus returns us to the spirit of England's New Poor Law of 1834, which introduced the principle of least eligibility, whereby relief for the unemployed and indigent was to be inferior in quality and quantity to the lowest prevailing wages and conditions of employment. And above all, welfare reform reopens a distinction between active (or "deserving") citizens and others: those who, for whatever reason, are excluded from the active workforce. To be sure, the old universal welfare systems were not market-friendly. But that was the point...

And there is the piece I quoted before: Judt's final sneer:

I am surprised that Robert Reich resents my "use" of his book for the expression of some general thoughts on its topic. Taken for itself, after all, Supercapitalism would have merited at best a short notice. However, Reich's letter is welcome all the same. It helpfully reasserts the book's argument; and by its resort to invective... offers an instructive insight into Reich's own thought processes... his critics (me, on this occasion) are dismissed as "denigrators" of economic growth, enemies of capitalist globalization who pave the way for nativism: in short, prole-worshipping nostalgics.... If the Professor of Public Policy at UC Berkeley really thinks that we can improve upon the "cacophony" that passes for public debate with talk of "citizen values" and "leaders who inspire us" and that anything else is "brainless neo-Ludditism," then he is himself a depressing illustration of the problem he purports to address.

One cannot help but ask: what in hell is going on here? Reich is making a social democratic argment that one would think Judt would approve of--indeed, as Colin Danby comments:

The funny part is both of them want some sort of revamped social democracy -- if you tried to write down their programs in positive terms I doubt you'd find much difference. Their spat may be due to their choice of different rhetorical foils.

Judt is always smart but his review suffers ontological drift: it initially seems to argue against neoliberalism as an ideology or interpretive frame (e.g. deploring a "master narrative" and lamenting "our newfound worship of productivity and the market" on the middle of 24) but then by the middle of page 26 he's assuming that this is not a frame but a good description of the reality of the world, which then needs repair. There's loose talk about "market optimization" and "the market requires..." and the kind of conflation of capital and markets that tells you someone is working on a deductive and indeed substantially metaphorical level when they talk about economic phenomena.

I'd argue that both Reich and Judt overplay the coherence and force of this neoliberal/market/capitalist juggernaut-thing, and both do so to play rhetorical games about lamenting its destructiveness -- Judt's concluding section about fear and threat is as loose and sweeping as the Reich account that he mockingly glosses at the start of his review.

So what is going on here? The narcissism of small differences? The failure of Reich to cite Judt's Postwar in Supercapitalism? Envy by a mere Erich Maria Remarque Professor in European Studies at New York University of a Professor of Public Policy here at Berkeley who gets to enjoy our much better weather?

I think I know what is going on here. Let's look at the first paragraph of Judt's review:

Supercapitalism is Robert Reich's account of the way we live now. Its story is familiar, its diagnosis superficial. But there are two reasons for paying attention to it. The author was President Clinton's first secretary of labor. Reich emphasizes this connection, adding that "the Clinton administration—-of which I am proud to have been a part--was one of the most pro-business administrations in American history." Indeed, this is a decidedly "Clintonesque" book, its shortcomings perhaps a foretaste of what to expect (and not expect) from another Clinton presidency. And Reich's subject--economic life in today's advanced capitalist economy and the price we are paying for it in the political and civic health of democracies--is important and even urgent, though the "fixes" that he proposes are unconvincing...

It is unclear why Tony Judt hates Clinton so much--Bill Clinton was, I think, (except for the little problem with the zipper) the best president America has had since Truman (or maybe Eisenhower), and the most liberal president America has had since LBJ. But hate Bill Clinton Tony Judt does. And that, I think, is the source of the energy behind his massive misreading of Reich.


Did Bob Reich Assassinate Tony Judt's Cat?

I was surprised to read:

'Supercapitalism': An Exchange: Tony Judt: I am surprised that Robert Reich resents my "use" of his book for the expression of some general thoughts on its topic. Taken for itself, after all, Supercapitalism would have merited at best a short notice. However, Reich's letter is welcome all the same. It helpfully reasserts the book's argument; and by its resort to invective—"jeremiad," "screeds," "emotionally gratifying," "capitalist hobgoblins," etc.—-his letter offers an instructive insight into Reich's own thought processes... his critics (me, on this occasion) are dismissed as "denigrators" of economic growth, enemies of capitalist globalization who pave the way for nativism: in short, prole-worshipping nostalgics.... If the Professor of Public Policy at UC Berkeley really thinks that we can improve upon the "cacophony" that passes for public debate with talk of "citizen values" and "leaders who inspire us" and that anything else is "brainless neo-Ludditism," then he is himself a depressing illustration of the problem he purports to address.

20071208_delong_micro.jpg This visual evidence of derangement surprised me, because I remembered Tony Judt's Postwar as being rather good--and his books on the post-WWII French intellectuals, Sartre and his circle, as being excellent. And I, at least, quite liked Supercapitalism.

Clearly I am going to have to go back and read Judt's review of Reich...

C41EC61D-10C2-4AB8-8F76-E552AA0C2A51.jpg
Image stolen from Obsidian Wings


John Berry Is More Optimistic than Many

John Berry writes:

Bloomberg.com: Opinion: Some analysts were predicting a recession would hit the U.S. economy in the fourth quarter as consumers, hurt by falling house prices and the high cost of gasoline, cut spending. It didn't happen, and there's no reason to think it's going to this year either....

Given the turmoil in financial markets, the risk of a recession is hardly zero. Nevertheless, the current state of the economy simply doesn't show the signs usually associated with one....

"Expansion peaks tend to be characterized by overhangs in inventories, too many employees and excess capital stock relative to output," [Mickey] Levy said. None of those conditions exists in the U.S. economy and the Fed has eased to the point that rates are "now consistent with sustained growth in demand," he said.

Many of the forecasts calling for a recession are based on an assumption that large losses associated with subprime mortgages and the securities backed by them will force banks to reduce lending big time. The resulting credit crunch will undermine business investment and consumer spending, the forecasters say. There are scant signs of that happening... the National Federation of Independent Business.... "Only three percent of the owners cited the cost and availability of credit as their number one business problem."...

Instead of a slump in consumer spending and the beginning of a recession, households increased their outlays at a 2.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, possibly more, according to estimates by a number of economists. On Dec. 26, Macroeconomic Advisers said consumer spending probably rose at a 2.8 percent rate.... The gross domestic product probably increased at a 1.1 percent pace in the fourth quarter and will do slightly better in the first quarter, the firm said...


Oil Hits $100/bbl

From Bloomberg:

Crude oil reached a record $100 a barrel and gold soared to the highest ever, leading a commodity surge as the dollar's slump against major currencies enhanced the appeal of raw materials as hedges against inflation.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=absD89sbSzoU&refer=home

20071208_delong_micro.jpg Just think how much better shape we would be in, in so many ways, if we had imposed a carbon tax fifteen years ago. Just think.


John Holbo Is: Super-Reviewer Man!!

Demonstrating his amazing super-powers, John Holbo writes a superb review of Jonah Goldberg's Liberal Fascism and does so even though he has been unable to get his hands on a copy of the book:

Crooked Timber » » “Heil Myself!” (and other rude Goldberg devices): Jonah Goldberg’s forthcoming Liberal Fascism. Ahem.

Matthew Yglesias notes that the falsehood of Goldberg’s thesis seems a more pertinent consideration than the NYT reviewer, David Oshinsky, seems to find it. I agree. Ramesh Ponnuru reads the review differently: “Jonah, I think it is remarkable that Oshinsky did not dispute one of your central contentions: that fascism is essentially a left-wing phenomenon. I don’t think it’s unfair to say that his silence on this point constitutes a concession.”

And here is Goldberg, in response to Yglesias: “Oshinsky in fact doesn’t deal with my “main thesis” at all. As Ramesh notes, Oshinsky actually concedes that fascism is a phenomenon of the left. As for where Oshinsky does disagree with my thesis, it is so poorly supported and so unrelated to what I actually write, I’m still a bit flummoxed as to how to respond to it, save to thank the man for his kind words and hope some other liberal actually reads the book and offers a sustained argument against it. Honestly: I would actually like to read such a review.”

Well, if he is willing to send me a free copy I will write a review no ruder than the book itself. But let’s stick with Oshinsky. It’s a puffy review, but did he or did he not dispute the central contention that ‘fascism is essentially a left-wing phenomenon’? Oshinsky notes, in passing, that the truth of the thesis that “fascism is strictly a Democratic disease” – i.e. Republicans can’t catch it – can hardly hope to survive contact with known facts about Republicans. Any definition of ‘fascist’ broad enough to include Clinton and Hitler is going to sweep up Reagan and Bush for good measure. The title of Oshinsky’s review ought not to have been ‘Heil Woodrow!’, but ‘Heil Myself!’ (as Chaplin put it.) We are all fascists now. Apparently Goldberg finesses this consideration by not considering it. Nor is it encouraging that neither Goldberg nor Ponnuru even recognizes the objection as an objection, when it is made clearly enough – at least by implication – in a short review. (Admittedly, it was confusing not to register a sense that obvious falsehood is a problem.)

What explicit definition of ‘fascism’ is Goldberg operating with, if any? To judge from reviews, the author’s own comments, his ‘results’, he must be applying the term to any sort of ‘statist’ or ‘collectivist’ political rhetoric, policy proposal, or legislative act, especially such of these as entangle the state in coercive action on behalf of ‘communitarian’ values or ‘identity’ politics: values that subordinate the individual to the whole. The trouble is: pretty much the only sort of conservative who is not going to come out fascist, under this umbrella, is (maybe) the likes of F. Hayek, when penning essays with titles like “Why I Am Not A Conservative”. Otherwise, the whole tradition of conservative thought, from Burke to Kirk and beyond, is ‘fascist’. Hillary says it takes a village, but Burke would never have settled for small-time socialism. He thundered about “the great primeval contract of eternal society.” No doubt ‘it takes a village’ is pretty weak, qua anti-fascist vaccine. But switching to the belief that you would do best to unquestioningly submit yourself to some sort of primordial, vaguely mystical, hierarchical social order is not going to inoculate you either.

In Oshinsky’s review we read: “To [Goldberg’s] mind, it is liberalism, not conservatism, that embraces what he claims is the fascist ideal of perfecting society through a powerful state run by omniscient leaders.” But the obvious examples of believers in the possibility of guidance by omniscient beings are theocrats (admixers of church into state in substantial proportion.) Goldberg is trying to target liberal technocrats and hubristic social engineers. But he can hardly get religion out of the target zone. In general, belief in hierarchy, hence the need to establish and maintain a socially superior class of natural leaders is eminently conservative – from Burke to Kirk and beyond, once again. Furthermore, ‘omniscient’, badly as it serves Goldberg’s purpose, is only there because the word you really want would be even more embarrassing to his case. Fascists believe in Great Leaders. Heroic leaders. It is quite obvious, from Carlyle to Gerson and beyond, that hero-worship is not inimical to conservatism. Of course, conservatives have their rugged individualist sides. They aren’t pure statists or collectivists or slavish self-subordinators. But, then again, neither are liberals. This is all pretty obvious.

Now we get to what is maybe an actually half-interesting point. There are two reasons why ad hitlerem arguments tend to be rude and crude. (Everyone knows Godwin’s Law is law. Here’s why, more or less.) First, the Holocaust. It’s pretty obvious how always dragging that in is not necessarily clarifying of every little dispute. Second, a little less obviously, ad hitlerem arguments are invariably arguments by moral analogy. Person A espouses value B. But the Nazis approved B. Not that person A is necessarily a Nazi but there must be something morally perilous about B, if espousing it is consistent with turning all Nazi. The trouble is: with few exceptions, the Nazis had all our values – at least nominally. They approved of life, liberty, justice, happiness, property, motherhood, society, culture, art, science, church, duty, devotion, loyalty, courage, fidelity, prudence, boldness, vision, veneration for tradition, respect for reason. They didn’t reject all that; they perverted it; preached but didn’t practice, or practiced horribly. Which goes to show there is pretty much no value immune from being paid mere lip-service; nominally maintained but substantively subverted. Which, come to think of it, isn’t surprising. How could a list of ‘success’ words guarantee success, after all?

If I believe it is important to be moral, it hardly follows that I am immoral, just because the fascists believed it was important to be moral – which they did. On some level. Wash. rinse. repeat.

The matter is more complicated, of course. It is plausible to say fascists really lack – except in a pitifully vestigial, reduced sense – certain essential values: tolerance, individualism. (That’s why fascism is a commonly considered inherently anti-liberal. And, since these are classical liberal values, conservatives can be liberals, too, in this sense.) But it isn’t the case that the fascists were the nasty pieces of work they were just because they lacked these values. It’s not that all anti-liberals are as morally monstrous as the fascists were, after all. The problem was also that the fascists valued (or at least said they did) things that really are valuable, but in hideously corrupt fashion. It’s this that feeds the bad ad hitlerem. Fascists believed in the power of the state to improve the lot of the individual. Well, so do liberals. So do conservatives. So do libertarians, if it comes to that. (The fact that extreme minarchists want to hire a night watchman – the Nazis hired lots of those! – hardly proves extreme libertarianism is inherently fascistic.)

This problem crops up in other, slightly less unserious contexts. Sometimes people try to argue that the Enlightenment was a terrible thing, because – look! – it led straight to the Nazis. Sometimes people try to show the counter-Enlightenment (irrationalism, romanticism) was a terrible thing, because – look! – it led straight to the Nazis. They’re both right. What doesn’t follow is that you need to take a stand against the legacy of Enlightenment, or on behalf of that legacy, to ward off moral monstrosity. Saying you believe in the great good of science and technology will not inherently preserve you from that. Nor will saying you think art is nobler than science and technology. You can screw it all up either way. Or both. Why not? The Nazis did.

Of course you can solve this little problem by not specifying values at an unhelpfully abstract, vague or sloganeering level. Still, it is a rather common fallacy that I think has no recognized name: to think that something that can be believed in a really screwed up way must be inherently screwed up in some way. Maybe it could be the abuse-mention distinction, or something like that.

At any rate, the problem with the ad hitlerem is that it is both trivially false (since your interlocutor is rarely a rabid, anti-semitic exterminationist); and trivially true: nominally – at some very general level of description – your interlocutor is almost sure to share a whole range of values with the Nazis.

You want to restrict ‘potential fascist’ to cases where there are not only shared values, in a weak ‘we are all fascists now’ sense, but some evidence that – due to those shared values – the person might turn into a sort of fascist, in a more full-blooded (blood and soil) sense. At the very least, you want to be on the lookout for people looking at actually existing fascism and thinking it’s sort of fascinating or attractive. Maybe they express sympathy with, or peddle apologetics on behalf of, actually existing fascism. Jeet Heer (whose anthology, Arguing Comics, is really good!) has been doing some digging through the archives:

Since its founding in 1955, National Review has been a haven for writers who are, if not fascists tout court, certainly fascist fellow travellers.

Let’s put it this way: if Woodrow Wilson and Hillary Clinton are fascists then what word do we have for those who admired Francisco Franco? When the Spanish tyrant died in 1975, National Review published two effusive obituaries. F.R. Buckley (brother to National Review founder William F. Buckley) hailed Franco as “a Spaniard out of the heroic annals of the nation, a giant. He will be truly mourned by Spain because with all his heart and might and soul, he loved his country, and in the vast context of Spanish history, did well by it.” James Burnham simply argued that “Francisco Franco was our century’s most successful ruler.” (Both quotes are from the November 21, 1975 issue). Aside from F.R. Buckley and Burnham, many of the early National Reviewers were ardent admirers of Franco’s Spain, which they saw as an authentically Catholic nation free from the vices supposedly gripping the United States and the northern European countries. National Review stalwarts like Frederick Wilhelmsen, Arnold Lunn, and L. Brent Bozell, Jr. made pilgrimages to Spain, finding spiritual nourishment in the dictatorship’s seemingly steadfast Catholicism.

The really twisted side [of] National Review’s philo-fascism came through in 1961 when Israel captured Adolph Eichmann, a leading Nazi, and tried him for crimes against humanity. National Review did everything they could editorially to offer extenuating arguments against the prosecution of Eichmann, arguing that he was being subjected to a “show trial”, that this was post facto justice, that pursuing Nazi crimes would weaken the Western alliance and further the cause of communism. As the magazine editorialized on April 22, 1961, the trial of Eichmann was a “lurid extravaganza” leading to “bitterness, distrust, the refusal to forgive, the advancement of Communist aims, [and] the cultivation of pacifism.” (The editors didn’t consider that a mere 16 years after the death camps were liberated, a “refusal to forgive” the architects of genocide might be understandable).

There’s more. I don’t think it follows that Goldberg is a fascist, just because he is an editor for National Review. Certainly he isn’t an anti-semite. But I think it does follow, by the terms of Goldberg’s own argument, that he is the editor of a journal that is not just fascistic but liberal, at least at an earlier point in its career. The latter of these consequences I think even Goldberg ought to concede is pretty awkward.

Link via Kip Manley.

UPDATE: via John Emerson (in comments), it turns out Spackerman is doing yeoman’s work, heroically slogging through the thing. It turns out my speculations about Goldberg’s sense of ‘fascism’ were pretty on the mark. Certainly close enough for government work.

Fascism is a religion of the state. It assumes the organic unity of the body politic and longs for a national leader attuned to the will of the people. It is totalitarian in that it views everything as political and holds that any action by the state is justified to achieve that common good. It takes responsibility for all aspects of life, including our health and well-being, and seeks to impose uniformity of thought and action, whether by force or through regulation and social pressure. Everything, including the economy and religion, must be aligned with its objectives. Any rival identity is part of the “problem” and therefore defined as the enemy.


More New Year's Resolution Blogging...

This year I resolve to organize my web space, somehow:


New Year's Day Ultimate Anti-Libertarian Nanny State Blogging

20071208_delong_micro.jpg To encourage y'all to keep your New Year's resolutions, we present:

  • A state that does not ask what it can do for you.
  • A state that does not ask what you can do for it.
  • A state that in fact tells you what to do in extreme detail.

We present a message from the governor of the state of California:

This exercise is extremely effective for your lats[issimi dorsi] and your upper back.

Stand with your feet on either side of an open door and grasp the doorknobs with both hands.

Slowly sink away from the door so that your back jackknifes and your arms extend fully and lock.

Now pull yourself back up to the starting position.

Let your arms, not your legs, complete the motion.

I will count out thirty repetitions.

Beginners should do 10, intermediates 20, and advanced the full amount.

LET'S DO IT! 1... 2... 3... 4, AND STRETCH YOUR BACK!... 5... 6... 7, DON'T USE YOUR LEGS!... 8... 9... 10... 11... 12... 13... 14... 15... 16, JUST USE YOUR ARMS!... 17... 18... 19... 20... 1... 2... 3, CONCENTRATE ON YOUR BACK!!... 4... 5... 6... 7, THREE MORE!... 8... 9, AND THE LAST ONE!... 30...

Next we have in our program a wonderful leg exercise, the lunges. This exercise develops the front part of your thighs...

From Arnold Schwarzenegger's Total Body Workout; background: Tommy Tutone, "867-5309"