Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

Today's Treasury yield curve:

And Paul Krugman sends us to the TED spread--the risk and liqudiity premium big banks are demanding over Treasuries for the loans they make to each other.

Think of the TED spread as an indicator of financial fever--with something like 0.3% per year being normal. Think of the short end of the yield curve as an indicator of how powerful the Federal Reserve's standard medicine of swapping Treasury securities for bank reserves is.

Be afraid. Be somewhat afraid.