Hoisted from Comments: kharris makes what I think of as the Jim Hamilton point:
Grasping Reality with Both Hands: The Semi-Daily Journal Economist Brad DeLong: On that point about where unemployment goes next, I notice that there is no episode of jobless rate rise in the period covered by the chart that is as large as the one we are now in which did not grow larger. Increases in the jobless rate past 0.5% (that may be generous) tend to become quite tenacious. Unless this episode proves an exception, we are going to see a considerably higher jobless rate over the next few months.
Posted by: kharris | July 31, 2008 at 01:02 PM
We may see tomorrow...