Why Oh Why Am I Berkeley's "China Economy" Expert?
American Economic History Introductory Lecture (August 27, 2008): Administration and Overview

Evidence-Based Economics

Talking to David and Christie Romer about whether we are or about to be in a recession. I think that the maximum-likelihood estimates of the probability for all plausible models in which "recession" is a useful and meaningful term are all equal to 1.0000. But:

  • We are not sure that "recession" is a useful and meaningful term.
  • We are not the kinds of people who believe in ML estimation. Instead, we are Baywsians who are ignorant of our own priors...