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Forecasting Friday's Payroll Employment Number


Juli Morris writes:

WANTED Hiring Demand Indicators: WANTED Technologies forecasts that Nonfarm Employment Payroll will drop by 167,000 in September. Last month the BLS reported a decline of 216,000 nonfarm workers. Several factors contribute to this negative outlook, although we do expect a "relative improvement" in job losses of almost 50,000 compared to last month's report.

  • There were 32,000 fewer new Unemployment Insurance Claims in the 4 weeks preceding September 12th than in the 4 weeks preceding August 12th. (Nonfarm Employment is counted on the 12th day of each month).
  • Hiring Demand has remained almost unchanged on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to last month. There hasn't been a surge in new online job ads that would lead us to believe a strong hiring trend is underway that could reverse employment losses.
  • Job losses, according to the August Employment Situation, have "moderated, [...] although job losses continued in many of the major industry sectors". In other words, job losses continue, but there has been a slow down in these losses.

Update: The consensus estimate from Thomson/Reuters predicts a decline of 170,000 jobs for September.