Econ 115 Lecture Notes: October 6, 2009: The Great Depression II
I Would Award This Year's Nobel Prize in Economics to Ben Bernanke and Mark Gertler...

Updated Campbell-Shiller Regressions

Ten- and twenty-year average annual real returns on equities as a function of the ratio of price to a ten-year moving average of earnings:

20091006 shiller data.xls

20091006 shiller data.xls

The price-to-ten-year-moving-average-of-earnings ratio is currently around 18, which suggests very good expected returns relative to a ten-year Treasury bond yield of 3.34% per year.