The Arithmetic of a Jobless Recovery
Macro Advisors has just upped their tracking estimate of seasonally-adjusted fourth-quarter real GDP growth to a 4.2% annual rate. We know that the fourth-quarter labor input growth rate will be about -1.0%. That means another high--5.0%-labor productivity growth rate quarter.
If productivity growth continues at 5% for a while, we would need a real GDP growth annual rate of 7% or more in order to lower the unemployment rate by even on percentage point per year...
