is the U.S. Like Greece?
Paul Krugman says no, and has a graph:
And he spanks David Leonhardt:
Are We Greece?: David Leonhardt tries to draw parallels. But how strong is the parallel, really? I would really question this comparison:
The numbers on our federal debt are becoming frighteningly familiar. The debt is projected to equal 140 percent of gross domestic product within two decades. Add in the budget troubles of state governments, and the true shortfall grows even larger. Greece’s debt, by comparison, equals about 115 percent of its G.D.P. today.
Um, that’s comparing a (highly uncertain) projection of debt 20 years from now — a projection that’s based on the assumption of unchanged policy — with actual debt now. Actual US federal debt is only about half that high now.... Greek debt is projected to rise to 149 percent of GDP over the next few years — and that’s with the austerity measures agreed with the IMF.
Here’s a more or less apples-to-apples comparison... Auerbach-Gale projections... IMF projections for Greece, subtracting out... the austerity measures agreed in return for official loans.... [T]he United States can expect economic recovery to bring the deficit down substantially; Greece, which has a larger structural deficit and also faces a grinding adjustment to overvaluation with the eurozone, can’t. Yes, the United States needs fiscal adjustment — Auerbach and Gale say that we have a long-run fiscal imbalance of 6-plus percent of GDP, although much of that could be closed by reining in health costs. But we really don’t look much like Greece.
