Department of Huh?!?! I Think Clive Crook Has Genuinely Lost His Mind...
Clive Crook says that Europe is wrong to move to fiscal austerity immediately:
Clive Crook: [U]nforced austerity is bad for Germany (though it might be good politics for Angela Merkel). Britain’s new government has a much more serious public debt problem but its fiscal plans – which gave rise to much boasting in Toronto – also look needlessly severe. Europe as a whole seems intent on one-size-fits-all austerity, despite limping output and very low inflation. Some countries have no choice but to curb their borrowing immediately. All should make a credible commitment to fiscal consolidation in the medium term: deficit hawks are right that if you wait until the bond market hammer comes down, you have waited too long. But with economies still so weak – remember Japan – this should not dictate a universal headlong rush to fiscal retrenchment...
But the headline on Crook's article is:
Obama is wrong to lecture the world [against premature fiscal retrenchment]...
And the headline accurately summarizes the meat of the article:
[O]ne could forgive the US for lecturing others on fiscal policy, were it not for...
But why is Obama wrong to advise countries to do the right thing?
It's not so clear.
Crook appears to me to give five reasons, two of which are wrong about matters of fact, none of which is valid as a reason that Obama should shut up rather than warn Europe not to make big economic policy mistakes:
Clive Crook: [P]oor US financial regulation and inattentive monetary policy caused the crisis in the first place...
And this is supposed to be a reason not to say that premature fiscal contraction is destructive?
Clive Crook: [The U.S.'s] own fiscal policy is a shambles.... Obama is telling other countries to maintain fiscal stimulus even as his own fades and the US Congress is denying his modest requests for extra spending...
And this is a reason for Barack Obama not to tell other countries not to imitate the mistakes of Senators 55-60 in the U.S. Congress?
And then Crook starts saying things that are simply not true--and would not be reasons for Obama to be quiet if they were true:
Clive Crook: [The] U.S. Congress is denying [Obama's] modest requests.... For this, Mr Obama himself is mostly to blame. He and his allies in Congress bungled last year’s stimulus...
Ummm... Ben Nelson and Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins and George Voinovich designed last year's stimulus. Obama's preferred stimulus was bigger--and much more technocratic. But is pushing for a good--although not the best--policy a reason not to warn other countries against making big mistakes?
And next comes:
Clive Crook: [The package] was seriously oversold, leaving voters sceptical that more stimulus would do any good...
This also seems to me to be wrong. But is overselling a program a reason not to warn other countries against making big mistakes?
Fifth and last comes:
Clive Crook: [W]ith public debt through the roof, the administration has failed to give the smallest sign of its exit strategy...
This at least is true. But is the fact that Obama has not outlined how he intends to stabilize the debt-to-GDP ratio a reason not to warn other countries against making big mistakes?