DeLong Smackdown Watch: Andy Harless and Structural Unemployment Edition
Hoisted from Comments: Anderw Harless writes:
Is America Facing an Increase in Structural Unemployment?:Take a closer look at the data: http://stats.bls.gov/jlt/
The rate of job openings (as of May, the last observation) is at 2.4%, back to where it was in October 2008. The rate of hires is at 3.4%, back to where it was in June 2008. These figures are not consistent with the story that says firms are having trouble hiring because the unemployed don't have the skills they need. Rather, the problems would appear to be (1) that people are still being laid off at a rate that is higher than normal for a recovery, so more hiring is necessary to raise employment, and (2) that changes in job openings lead changes in unemployment, because it takes time to hire. (The jump in job openings has been very recent and therefore hasn't had a chance to have a large effect on unemployment.) I see no evidence an increase in structural unemployment.
