Jonathan Bernstein: House Republicans Can Either Declare Budget Victory or Lose Big
JB:
Get ready: Government shutdown is coming: Set your government shutdown clock ahead three weeks — and know that this time, the odds are very high that it's going to happen. As it turned out, after all but six Republicans voted for the previous two-week budget extension, about 50 more voted against the current three-week deal, while about 20 Democrats flipped against it. So, by a 271-158 margin, the government gets to stay open for three more weeks, at least assuming the Senate concurs.
Where does that leave us?
First of all, numerous members on both sides said this would be the last short-term extension. Of course, that doesn't mean they would vote against another one if it meant shutdown...but perhaps they would.
Second, House Speaker John Boehner did a solid job, again, of holding things together....
Third, where do we go from here? I don't know. A slim majority of Democrats thought that this bill cut spending too much.... 54 Republicans opposed it....
I’m not convinced there is any middle ground, at this point, that could win 218 votes in the House and 51 — let alone 60 — in the Senate. The problem isn’t the 54 House Republicans who voted against this extension; it’s another hundred or so who voted for funding two more weeks of implementing the Affordable Care Act, environmental regulations, and money for Planned Parenthood only because it was temporary....
If you believe, as I do, that House Republicans have a weak hand going forward, then their best bet is going to be to eventually declare victory (after all, they’ve already enacted $10 billion in spending cuts) and move on. That’s the only winning move available to them. Can Boehner convince them to do that? I’d be very impressed if he can, especially without at least a short shutdown, first. But I don’t see it happening. I think we’re in for at least a short shutdown, and more likely a repeat of the 1995-1996 disaster — with Republicans re-learning the hard way the lesson that the unpopularity of the specific cuts they want to make is far more important politically than the popularity of general, unspecified cuts...
