I Forgot to Post This a Year Ago...
Paul Krugman:
Dances With Wolf: Martin Wolf apparently shares my views about the trouble with Chinese currency policy — and throws Germany into the mix. The difference is that he uses stronger language! As I read this debate, one thing that’s truly amazing is the way China defenders are recapitulating some old fallacies from, of all places, Latin America. Back in the 50s it was common for Latin economists to insist that getting realistic exchange rates wouldn’t solve their persistent balance of payments problems because imbalances were “structural” — now we’re hearing the same thing about China, with the only difference being that this time it’s a surplus, not a deficit, that is supposedly immune from the usual rules of supply and demand. I’d also point out, without having time to track down the references, that the global macro aspects of the situation are reminiscent of the late 1920s, when the US was simultaneously insisting that European nations repay their dollar debts and that they not be allowed to export more to earn the dollars. That didn’t end well.
