Much Worse GDP Numbers than I Had Expected
Time for a Debt Ceiling Technical Fix: In Which i Move to the Left of Steny Hoyer

Real GDP Still Below Its $13,326 Billion Real Annual Pace of 2007:IV

U S Bureau of Economic Analysis  BEA

And the yield on the Ten-Year Treasury bond is now less than 2.9%.

And fiscal contraction is--surprise, surprise--still contractionary. Let's go to the back of the envelope: shrink government purchases by 0.5% of GDP between last fall and this spring and you shouldn't be surprised to see this put 1% of fiscal drag on the level of real GDP, and thus make the first half growth rate 2% lower than it would otherwise have been.

And, of course, the next round of state and local fiscal contraction hits the economy this quarter and next quarter...