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Department of "Huh?!": Libertarians Forecast Inflation Department

Timothy B. Lee:

Why Are Libertarians Inflation Hawks?: Two years ago, my friend Matt Yglesias ... irritated [me]... and [I] made a note to myself to check back in a few years and see how things turned out.... I don’t think we have enough data yet to reach a decisive verdict. It’s possible that that the most recent measurement of 3.6 percent inflation portends a major price rise over the next few months—though the “core” inflation rate of just 1.6 percent suggests otherwise...

Not just the core inflation rate: the wage inflation rate, the level of the unemployment rate, financial market forecasts of inflation, forecasts of inflation by private-industry agents who make their money off of clients who pay for their forecasts rather than politicians who pay for air cover, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera.

Many things are "possible" in this wide green world. But I am having a hard time right now thinking of a bet that has a lower expected payout than the bet that the most recent price-inflation number portends a rise in inflation over the next few months back to, say, Reagan-Bush administration levels...

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