Grasping Reality on TypePad, by Brad DeLong

Paul Krugman on why the New York Times should have fired David Brooks long ago:

Stocks, Flows, and Fuzzy Math: I read David Brooks citing the Tax Foundation this morning, and I thought he must have misread them. They couldn’t possibly have compared one year’s take from higher taxes on the rich with the total stock of debt, could they? They can’t possibly be that stupid, or think that their readers are that stupid, can they?

Yes they did. They actually find that their version of the “Buffett rule” would collect $120 billion a year, which is a seriously significant sum. But they try to make it look small by comparing one year’s revenue with the total debt outstanding.

I mean, the standard scoring method in Washington involves using 10-year projections — and even that is flawed, because the real budget issues are much longer-term than that. But nobody, nobody thinks it makes sense to estimate the effect of a revenue proposal on future debt by looking only at the first year’s receipts.

This deliberate fraud — because that’s what it has to be — is an example of the reasons knowledgeable people don’t trust the Tax Foundation.

Hoisted from Comments: Jacob Levy:

Was Lord Acton a Liberal?: "I Mourn for the Stake That Was Lost at Richmond More Deeply than I Rejoice Over That Which Was Saved at Waterloo" Department: [Lord Acton] was an opponent of slavery who (falsely) thought that it was going to naturally disappear, and who (falsely) thought that the temporary aberration of slavery in America was of less long-term importance to the cause of human freedom than the long-term success of federalist constitutionalism as he understood it. The latter was the stake that was lost at Richmond. This puts [Acton] roughly where many of the American founders had been two generations before, even those who were not themselves slaveowners…

Did Jacob Levy just say that Alexander Hamilton, John Adams, and John Hancock would have been on the side of the Confederacy in the American Civil War?!?!

The U.S. Constitution was indeed "a covenant with death and an agreement with hell"--albeit one that, I think, was worth making. But federalist constitutionalism was not what those who laid their stake on the Confederacy at Richmond were fighting for.

What was the stake at Richmond? Here is Abraham Lincoln at Alton:

You have heard [Judge Douglas] frequently allude to my controversy with him in regard to the Declaration of Independence. I confess that I have had a struggle with Judge Douglas on that matter, and I will try briefly to place myself right in regard to it on this occasion. I said — and it is between the extracts Judge Douglas has taken from this speech, and put in his published speeches — :

It may be argued that there are certain conditions that make necessities and impose them upon us, and to the extent that a necessity is imposed upon a man he must submit to it. I think that was the condition in which we found ourselves when we established this government. We had slaves among us, we could not get our Constitution unless we permitted them to remain in slavery, we could not secure the good we did secure if we grasped for more; and having by necessity submitted to that much, it does not destroy the principle that is the charter of our liberties. Let that charter remain as our standard.

Now I have upon all occasions declared as strongly as Judge Douglas against the disposition to interfere with the existing institution of slavery. You hear me read it from the same speech from which he takes garbled extracts for the purpose of proving upon me a disposition to interfere with the institution of slavery, and establish a perfect social and political equality between negroes and white people.

Allow me while upon this subject briefly to present one other extract from a speech of mine, more than a year ago, at Springfield, in discussing this very same question, soon after Judge Douglas took his ground that negroes were not included in the Declaration of Independence:

I think the authors of that notable instrument intended to include all men, but they did not mean to declare all men equal in all respects. They did not mean to say all men were equal in color, size, intellect, moral development or social capacity. They defined with tolerable distinctness in what they did consider all men created equal — equal in certain inalienable rights, among which are life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. This they said, and this they meant. They did not mean to assert the obvious untruth, that all were then actually enjoying that equality, nor yet, that they were about to confer it immediately upon them. In fact they had no power to confer such a boon. They meant simply to declare the right so that the enforcement of it might follow as fast as circumstances should permit.

They meant to set up a standard maxim for free society which should be familiar to all: constantly looked to, constantly labored for, and even though never perfectly attained, constantly approximated and thereby constantly spreading and deepening its influence and augmenting the happiness and value of life to all people, of all colors, everywhere.

There again are the sentiments I have expressed in regard to the Declaration of Independence upon a former occasion — sentiments which have been put in print and read wherever anybody cared to know what so humble an individual as myself chose to say in regard to it.

At Galesburg the other day, I said in answer to Judge Douglas, that three years ago there never had been a man, so far as I knew or believed, in the whole world, who had said that the Declaration of Independence did not include negroes in the term 'all men.' I re-assert it to-day. I assert that Judge Douglas and all his friends may search the whole records of the country, and it will be a matter of great astonishment to me if they shall be able to find that one human being three years ago had ever uttered the astounding sentiment that the term 'all men' in the Declaration did not include the negro. Do not let me be misunderstood. I know that more than three years ago there were men who, finding this assertion constantly in the way of their schemes to bring about the ascendancy and perpetuation of slavery, denied the truth of it. I know that Mr. Calhoun and all the politicians of his school denied the truth of the Declaration. I know that it ran in the mouths of some Southern men for a period of years, ending at last in that shameful though rather forcible declaration of Pettit of Indiana, upon the floor of the United States Senate, that the Declaration of Independence was in that respect 'a self-evident lie,' rather than a self-evident truth. But I say, with a perfect knowledge of all this hawking at the Declaration without directly attacking it, that three years ago there never had lived a man who had ventured to assail it in the sneaking way of pretending to believe it and then asserting it did not include the negro. [Cheers.] I believe that the first man who ever said it was Chief Justice Taney in the Dred Scott case, and the next to him was our friend Stephen A. Douglas. [Cheers and laughter.] And now it has become the catch-word of the entire party. I would like to call upon his friends everywhere to consider how they have come in so short a time to view this matter in a way so entirely different from their former belief? to ask whether they are not being borne along by an irresistible current — whither, they know not? [Great applause.]

In answer to my proposition at Galesburg last week, I see that some man in Chicago has got up a letter addressed to the Chicago Times, to show as he professes that somebody had said so before; and he signs himself 'An Old Line Whig,' if I remember correctly, In the first place I would say he was not an Old Line Whig. I am somewhat acquainted with them, and I know they always had some sense, whatever else you could ascribe to them. [Great laughter.] I know there never was one who had not more sense than to try to show by the evidence he produces that some man had, prior to the time I named, said that negroes were not included in the term 'all men' in the Declaration of Independence. What is the evidence he produces? I will bring forward his evidence and let you see what he offers by way of showing that somebody more than three years ago had said negroes were not included in the Declaration. He brings forward part of a speech from Henry Clay — the part of the speech of Henry Clay which I used to bring forward to prove precisely the contrary. [Laughter.] I guess we are surrounded to some extent to-day, by the old friends of Mr. Clay, and they will be glad to hear anything from that authority. While he was in Indiana a man presented him a petition to liberate his negroes, and he, (Mr. Clay) made a speech in answer to it, which I suppose he carefully wrote out himself and caused to be published. I have before me an extract from that speech which constitute the evidence this pretended 'Old Line Whig' at Chicago brought forward to show that Mr. Clay didn't suppose the negro was included in the Declaration of Independence. Hear what Mr. Clay said:

And what is the foundation of this appeal to me in Indiana, to liberate the slaves under my care in Kentucky? It is a general declaration in the act announcing to the world the independence of the thirteen colonies, that all men are created equal. Now, as an abstract principle, there is no doubt of the truth of that declaration; and it is desirable in the original construction of society, and in organized societies, to keep it in view as a great fundamental principle. But, then, I apprehend that in no society that ever did exist, or ever shall be formed, was or can the equality asserted among the members of the human race be practically enforced and carried out. There are portions, large portions, women, minors, insane, culprits, transient sojourners, that will always probably remain subject to the government of another portion of the community.

That declaration whatever may be the extent of its import, was made by the delegations of the thirteen States. In most of them slavery existed, and had long existed, and was established by law. It was introduced and forced upon the colonies by the paramount law of England. Do you believe, that in making that Declaration the States that concurred in it intended that it should be tortured into a virtual emancipation of all the slaves within their respective limits? Would Virginia and other Southern States have ever united in a declaration which was to be interpreted into an abolition of slavery among them? Did any one of the thirteen colonies entertain such a design or expectation? To impute such a secret and unavowed purpose would be to charge a political fraud upon the noblest band of patriots that ever assembled in council; a fraud upon the confederacy of the Revolution; a fraud upon the union of those States whose constitution not only recognized the lawfulness of slavery, but permitted the importation of slaves from Africa until the year 1808.

This is the entire quotation brought forward to prove that somebody previous to three years ago had said the negro was not included in the term 'all men' in the Declaration. How does it do so? In what way has it a tendency to prove that? Mr. Clay says it is true as an abstract principle that all men are created equal, but that we cannot practically apply it in all cases. He illustrates this by bringing forward the cases of females, minors and insane persons with whom it cannot be enforced; but he says it is true as an abstract principle in the organization of society as well as in organized society, and it should be kept in view as a fundamental principle. Let me read a few words more before I add some comments of my own. Mr. Clay says a little further on:

I desire no concealment of my opinions in regard to the institution of slavery. I look upon it as a great evil; and deeply lament that we have derived it from the parental government; and from our ancestors. But here they are and the question is, how can they be best dealt with? If a state of nature existed and we were about to lay the foundations of society, no man would be more strongly opposed that I should be, to incorporating the institution of slavery among its elements.

Now here in this same book — in this same speech — is this same extract brought forward to prove that Mr. Clay held that the negro was not included in the Declaration of Independence — no such statement on his part, but the declaration that it is a great fundamental truth, which should be constantly kept in view in the organization of society and in societies already organized. But if I say a word about it — if I attempt, as Mr. Clay said all good men ought to do, to keep it in view — if, in this 'organized society,' I ask to have the public eye turned upon it — if I ask, in relation to the organization of new Territories that the public eye should be turned upon it — forthwith I am vilified as you hear me to-day. What have I done, that I have not the license of Henry Clay's illustrious example here in doing? Have I done aught that I have not his authority for, while maintaining that in organizing new Territories and societies this fundamental principle should be regarded, and in organized society holding it up to the public view and recognizing what he recognized as the great principle of free government? [Great applause, and cries o 'Hurrah for Lincoln.']

And when this new principle — this new proposition that no human being ever thought of three years ago, — is brought forward, I combat it as having an evil tendency, if not an evil design; I combat it as having a tendency to dehumanize the negro — to take away from him the right of ever striving to be a man...

Over the past fifteen years, we economists have had a number of lessons. No, the problem of depression prevention has not been solved. No, the major banks do not have the ability to manage or even assess the risks that they are running. No, the Federal Reserve does not have the power and the will to build a firewall between financial distress and the real economy of employment and production. No, the labor market does not move quickly back to a full employment equilibrium. No, 9% unemployment does not galvanize Washington into action to fix it. No, the full-employment equilibrium-restoring forces in the market are not strong.

Many of us economists--I would say all economists worthy of the name--who did not forecast all six of these in advance have been working hard at rethinking our positions. We have been trying to figure out why our Visualizations of the Cosmic All were so awry. And we have been trying to construct better Visualizations of the Cosmic All.

Others--cal them ideologues--haven't changed their mind about a blessed thing over the last fifteen years.

And now Paul Krugman's ire is aroused as these ideologues claim to think that he is one of them: he is not--he is not in the same business that they are:

I Am Not Your Mirror Image: Russ Roberts tries to debunk my explanation of the reasons to believe in a broadly Keynesian view of the world — and reveals more than he intended…. oberts treats my statement that we have a lot of evidence on the effects of monetary policy, not so much on fiscal policy, as being somehow slippery. But if you are at all familiar with the reality of macroeconomic policy, you know that there’s an obvious reason: monetary policy, which is set by a small committee without the need to pass legislation, is routinely used as a tool for managing the economy; discretionary fiscal policy isn’t…. Roberts also says, well, I choose some studies of austerity, but others reach different conclusions. Yes — but not all studies are created equal. In fact, the last two years of research on fiscal policy have clarified a lot.

Initially, a lot of credence was given to work like that of Alesina and Ardagna, which tried to identity changes in fiscal policy using mildly fancy time-series analysis — and seemed to find evidence of expansionary contraction. But everyone who looked at that work closely quickly noticed that their supposed episodes of both stimulus and austerity didn’t seem to correspond at all to known changes in policy. When economists started doing studies using the Milton Friedman/ Romer and Romer method –that is, using historical information to identify actual changes in policy — the results turned clearly Keynesian.

But the main thing wrong with Roberts’s piece is the assumption that people like me are just mirror images of people like him:

Krugman is a Keynesian because he wants bigger government. I’m an anti-Keynesian because I want smaller government. Both of us can find evidence for our worldviews.

This is wrong on multiple levels. First of all, while conservatives see smaller government as an end in itself, liberals don’t see bigger government the same way…. [L]iberals want government to do certain things, like provide essential health care; the size of government per se isn’t the objective.

Second, Keynesianism is not and never has been about promoting bigger government. Outside the US, this is obvious…. Even in the US, when the political heat isn’t so intense, you find conservative economists promoting quite Keynesian views of stabilization policy — Greg Mankiw is the editor of two volumes on New Keynesian Economics, and the Bushies were quite happy to argue for tax cuts as a way to boost spending.

What is true is that some conservatives in America have always opposed Keynesian thought because they believe it legitimizes an active role for government — but that’s not what Keynesianism is about, and not the reason I or others support it.

Which brings me to the final point. Russ Roberts may choose his economic views because they support his political prejudices. I try not to…. I’m trying to figure this thing out, as best I can. If you’re not, we’re not in the same business.

"Heathkits were really great. Heathkits were these products that you would buy in kit form. You actually paid more money for them than if you just went and bought the finished product if it was available. These Heathkits would come with these detailed manuals about how to put this thing together and all the parts would be laid out in a certain way and color coded. You'd actually build this thing yourself.

"I would say that this gave one several things. It gave one a understanding of what was inside a finished product and how it worked because it would include a theory of operation but maybe even more importantly it gave one the sense that one could build the things that one saw around oneself in the universe. These things were not mysteries anymore. I mean you looked at a television set you would think that: 'I haven't built one of those but I could. There's one of those in the Heathkit catalog and I've built two other Heathkits so I could build that.'

"Things became much more clear that they were the results of human creation not these magical things that just appeared in one's environment that one had no knowledge of their interiors. It gave a tremendous level of self-confidence, that through exploration and learning one could understand seemingly very complex things in one's environment. My childhood was very fortunate in that way."

--Steve Jobs in 1995

Josh Marshall:

Collaborator and Friend | Talking Points Memo: Mother Jones' DC Editor David Corn digs up copy of Mitt Romney embracing Ted Kennedy as his "collaborator" and fellow "parent" of Romneycare at signing event in 2006…

Jacob Levy emails that Mark Kleiman wrongly calls Lord Acton a Tory. I have never thought the issue clear.

It has always seemed to me that Lord Acton would have fit in fine at National Review in the 1950s and 1960s--if you call him a liberal, you need to call him a strange one: the liberalism of racial subjection, perhaps?:

The Acton-Lee Correspondence:

Bologna, November 4, 1866

Sir….

It cannot have escaped you that much of the good will felt in England towards the South, so far as it was not simply the tribute of astonishment and admiration won by your campaigns, was neither unselfish nor sincere. It sprang partly from an exultant belief in the hope that America would be weakened by the separation, and from terror at the remote prospect of Farragut appearing in the channel and Sherman landing in Ireland.

I am anxious that you should distinguish the feeling which drew me aware toward your cause and your career, and which now guides my pen, from that thankless and unworthy sympathy….

I saw in State Rights the only availing check upon the absolutism of the sovereign will, and secession filled me with hope, not as the destruction but as the redemption of Democracy. The institutions of your Republic have not exercised on the old world the salutary and liberating influence which ought to have belonged to them, by reason of those defects and abuses of principle which the Confederate Constitution was expressly and wisely calculated to remedy. I believed that the example of that great Reform would have blessed all the races of mankind by establishing true freedom purged of the native dangers and disorders of Republics. Therefore I deemed that you were fighting the battles of our liberty, our progress, and our civilization; and I mourn for the stake which was lost at Richmond more deeply than I rejoice over that which was saved at Waterloo….

I have before me an elaborate work by a Prussian officer named Sander. It is hardly possible that future publications can be more honorable to the reputation of your army and your own. His feelings are strongly Federal, his figures, especially in estimating your forces, are derived from Northern journals, and yet his book ends by becoming an enthusiastic panegyric on your military skill. It will impress you favourably towards the writer to know that he dwells with particular detail….

If you will do me the honor to write to me, letters will reach me addressed Sir J. Acton, Hotel [Serry?], Rome. Meantime I remain, with sentiments stronger than respect, Sir,

Your faithful servant
John Dalberg Acton

And:

Lexington, Vir., 15 Dec. 1866

Sir,

Although your letter of the 4th ulto. has been before me some days unanswered, I hope you will not attribute it to a want of interest in the subject, but to my inability to keep pace with my correspondence. As a citizen of the South I feel deeply indebted to you for the sympathy you have evinced in its cause….

I yet believe that the maintenance of the rights and authority reserved to the states and to the people, not only essential to the adjustment and balance of the general system, but the safeguard to the continuance of a free government. I consider it as the chief source of stability to our political system, whereas the consolidation of the states into one vast republic, sure to be aggressive abroad and despotic at home, will be the certain precursor of that ruin which has overwhelmed all those that have preceded it. I need not refer one so well acquainted as you are with American history, to the State papers of Washington and Jefferson, the representatives of the federal and democratic parties, denouncing consolidation and centralization of power, as tending to the subversion of State Governments, and to despotism…. Judge Chase, the present Chief Justice of the U.S., as late as 1850, is reported to have stated in the Senate, of which he was a member, that he "knew of no remedy in case of the refusal of a state to perform its stipulations," thereby acknowledging the sovereignty and independence of state action. But I will not weary you with this unprofitable discussion. Unprofitable because the judgment of reason has been displaced by the arbitrament of war….

The legitimate consequence then must be the perfect equality of rights of all the states; the exclusive right of each to regulate its internal affairs under rules established by the Constitution, and the right of each state to prescribe for itself the qualifications of suffrage….

With sentiments of great respect, I remain your obt. servant,

R.E. Lee

• RT @kdrum: Team Perry Goes the Extra Mile for Climate Denial http://mojo.ly/pzqJAE

• RT @kombiz: crazy biden RT @ThePlumLineGS: Biden's latest "controversial" statement: Fewer cops = more crime

• RT @ThePlumLineGS: Want to know why Dems will keep pressing GOP on jobs plan? New poll finds its provisions are EXTREMELY popular

• RT @ThePlumLineGS: Dem Senator vows that public opinion will "wear down the GOP wall of obstruction" to action of jobs: http://wapo.st/nAVTp5

• RT @rodrikdani: If there were ever a time when we became the prisoner of our ideas (as opposed to our interests), this is it.

• RT @rodrikdani: How do you make Republicans see that the Alpert et al blueperint is their best chance for saving the the capitalist syst ...

• RT @thinkprogress: FACT: 60% of NBA players declare bankruptcy within 5 years of retirement http://thkpr.gs/p8xaL8

• RT @brianbeutler: Also, read Schumer's memo on Dems #teaparty based messaging going forward http://bit.ly/o6fy6Q

• RT @jamesfreedman: Got an iPhone? Turn it into a virtual 'Blackberry by enabling airplane mode.

• RT @joshtpm: Decision to run all Blackberry messages through TRS-80 in Bruges, Belgium not as good an idea as it first appeared.

• RT @daveweigel: More austerity, now! RT @mikememoli: British unemployment at 17-year high http://bbc.in/r9djTT

• http://actuallyyourethe47percent.tumblr.com #recommended

• Matthew Yglesias Says That Russ Roberts Is Insane http://bit.ly/nPUHgw

• RT @daveweigel: RT @thegarance: RT @OKnox: Wow, this iPhone 4S launch is pretty aggressive. #Blackberryoutage

• Mike Konczal: Paging Professor Romer http://bit.ly/q35EHN

• RT @NYTimeskrugman: I Am Not Your Mirror Image http://nyti.ms/na8MLS

• RT @ddayen: I am the 22% of registered Republicans #cryoftheRomneyvoter

• Goldman Sachs's Game of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis http://bit.ly/rlIJjS

Ian Whitchurch said:

Quick thinking by Rokossovsky breaks several divisions out of the Vyazma pocket to the West, and Lukin extracts two divisions out of the same cauldron to the east.

Substantial troops are encircled in the German deep operation, but enough troops still exists between the German army and the approaches to Moscow.

In short, Soviet operational capabilities are getting better, and command is beginning to show flexibility when things do not go to plan.

Walter Jon Williams asks a very good question:

Goldman’s Game of Life: Where is the box that says: "Buy complex Goldman financial instruments that convince you and everyone else that you’re solvent when in fact you’re not"?

A very good question indeed...

Mark Kleiman:

Capitalism or freedom? Why libertarians choose capitalism when the chips are down « The Reality-Based Community: Lind seems to accept the libertarian pretense that libertarians’ fanatical devotion to unfettered market activity is identical to liberals’ concern with open inquiry and individual autonomy, so he mixes true liberals such as Mill and Macaulay with libertarians such as Mises, Hayek, and Friedman. And why Lind rings in the Tory Lord Acton is a complete puzzle.

It’s true, as Schumpter pointed out a long time ago, that the liberal concern for personal autonomy isn’t the same as, and can come into conflict with, the democratic principle of majority rule. But that’s not, in general, a tragic tension: there can be no real democracy without personal autonomy and free discourse, and democratic majorities in most of the developed world consent to guarantees of individual liberty that are proof against at least short-term majoritarian pressure. Egalitarianism can also come into tension both with majority rule and with personal freedom. But those tensions, too, are largely manageable under advanced-country conditions; the “dictatorship of the proletariat” has few remaining fans, and even fewer among actual proletarians. Consequently, no substantial American politician is a fan of Castro or nostalgic for Mao.

But libertarian market-worship is in much deeper tension with democratic principle; Robert Nozick’s Anarchy, State, and Utopia contains a “proof” that majority rule is, in principle, no different from slavery; if you believe that all taxation is, at its root, theft, then it barely matters, morally, who gets to decide what the taxes are or how they get spent.

Lind’s piece is at its strongest when it lays out the deeply embarrassing facts about the extent to which the “capitalism and freedom” crowd – including St. Milton himself – have chosen capitalism over freedom when push came to shove. And they’re prepared to jettison more than free elections.... [E]ven the torture chamber and the death squad can be called to the service of the libertarian (in effect plutocratic) cause without losing the support of those who claim to be the true carriers of the tradition of Locke...

A new feature on Rortybomb:

Paging Dr. Romer: We are going to start a new feature here called “Paging Dr. Romer.”  Anytime someone associated with the Obama Administration, past or present, says something that is probably wrong about the economy in 2011, we break out Christina Romer saying the correct thing in early 2009.

For instance, take this from Ezra Klein’s big Could This Time Have Be Different article (a piece we’ll cover in the next post):

“I don’t think it’s too much of an exaggeration to say that everything follows from missing the call on Reinhart-Rogoff, and I include myself in that category,” says Peter Orszag, who led the Office of Management and Budget before departing the administration to work at Citigroup. “I didn’t realize we were in a Reinhart-Rogoff situation until 2010.”

It’s not always clear what people are invoking when they bring up Reinhart-Rogoff.  The general thought is that recoveries from financial crises take a very long time.  Usually this is used, in policy debates, to mean that a financial crisis negates fiscal policy or that we can’t use fiscal or monetary policy effectively until we’ve tackled Wall Street or debts overhangs first.

Paging Dr. Romer……paging Dr. Romer……Dr. Romer located.  Here’s a transcript of Dr. Romer, March 29th, 2009, Meet the Press interview:

MR. GREGORY:  Most economists believe that until the financial system is shored up, until these distressed assets are removed from these banks’ balance sheets, stimulus won’t work and the economy won’t recover.  And yet the administration has yet to provide a detailed blueprint about how they’re going to remove these assets.  What’s taking so long and what is the plan?

DR. ROMER:  All right, so there are two things to say.  One is I don’t agree with the idea that you–that, that stimulus can’t do anything until the financial rescue is done.  I think in truth, those things go parallel.  And if you think back to the Great Depression, it’s actually–getting the real economy going was the main thing that, that helped to make–bring the banks around.

MR. GREGORY:  But didn’t FDR first shore up confidence?  The bank holiday was what he did first before he got to fiscal stimulus.

DR. ROMER:  Actually, you know, a crucial thing–when he did the bank holiday, it took the next two years to actually clean up the banks, that we actually did not get the things really cleaned up until 1935.  And that a big part of that cleanup was he managed to turn around the real economy.  We saw employment growing again, GDP growing again, and that inherently helps your financial system.

Getting people’s wages up and getting unemployment down is a great way to deal with debts.  Having median wages crash 10%, a sustained period of very high unemployment and disinflation is a good way to kill a recovery and make debt loads more unbearable.  One needs a theory of why the aftermath of a financial crisis means we have to have a period of long turmoil – and the funny part about Reinhart/Rogoff is that it doesn’t actually have a good explanation of why it should be that way…

Duncan Black writes:

Eschaton: Fools Run The World: I certainly get why Labour was chucked out, but their successors are idiots.

The Prime Minister told the Commons: "I accept we have got to do more to get our economy moving, to get jobs for our people, but we mustn't abandon the plan that has given us record low interest rates."

Record low interest rates are not a policy goal. They are a (potential) tool for improving the economy. If they are not enough, then you should use other tools. Like giving people free money.

Right now record-low interest rates are not a tool for improving the economy. They are a consequence of the fact that the British economy is 100% scr---d and about to become 150% scr---d. The risk that other investments in Britain will go south as the double-dip hits is sufficiently large that investors are terrified and willing to buy British Treasury debt at absurd and outlandish prices. Cameron's statement is the equivalent of:

We have to do more to get the economy moving, to get jobs for our people, but we mustn't do anything to reduce the fear and terror of a double-dip that currently grips our investor class.

Higher market interest rates right now would be a very positive sign.

See? When people get happier about the future--when they think stocks are worth more because they expect demand to be higher and thus corporate profits higher in the future--the interest rate on long Treasury bonds goes up because the investor class is less scared. When people get panicked about the future, he interest rate on long Treasury bonds goes down because the investor class is more scared.

Matthew Yglesias reads Russ Roberts:

Russ Roberts: The evidence for the Keynesian worldview is very mixed. Most economists come down in favor or against it because of their prior ideological beliefs. Krugman is a Keynesian because he wants bigger government. I’m an anti-Keynesian because I want smaller government. Both of us can find evidence for our worldviews…

And comments:

Keynesianism And Big Government: That seems insane to me. Did George W Bush sign a 100 percent tax cuts stimulus bill in 2008 because he favored bigger government? That doesn’t sound right to me. I think he did a 100 percent tax cuts stimulus because congressional Democrats were pushing for stimulus, because many of his advisers believed in New Keynesian economic models, and because he doesn’t favor bigger government. Or consider this. In the late 1990s, the Keynesian thing to do was to run budget surpluses. Right-wing critics of the Clinton administration disagreed with this, preferring to expend the surpluses on tax cuts. Left-wing critics of the Clinton administration also disagreed with this, preferring to expend the surpluses on new programs. Either way, whether or not one believed the country should be following the Keynesian prescription of budget surpluses had nothing to do with beliefs about big or small government…

Indeed. Milton Friedman's teacher Jacob Viner certainly did not want a bigger government. But in 1933 Jacob Viner and a whole bunch of other small-government loving economists argued for fighting the Great Depression with what we would now call "Keynesian" policies: a temporary money-financed increase in the deficit.

Viner advocated this because he was, at bottom, not an ideologue but a technocrat.

Similarly, in the counterfactual universe in which expansions in government purchases lead to sharp increases in interest rates even when the unemployment rate is high, Alternative Krugman calls not for expansionary fiscal policy but rather for policies to summon the confidence fairy.

Nazis continue advancing towards Moscow east of Viazma. Nazis capture Kaluga. Russians admit that the Nazis have captured Bryansk.

It begins to rain...

"Never get beholden to people like that, they’ll piss on you and then charge irrigation fees."

--Iain M. Banks: Against a Dark Background

EJ:

From Elizabeth Warren, the proper case for liberalism: It’s not often that a sound bite from a Democratic candidate gets so under the skin of my distinguished colleague George F. Will that he feels moved to quote it in full and then devote an entire column to refuting it. This is instructive.

The declaration heard ’round the Internet world came from Elizabeth Warren, the consumer champion running for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts. Warren argued that “there is nobody in this country who got rich on his own,” that thriving entrepreneurs move their goods “on the roads the rest of us paid for” and hire workers “the rest of us paid to educate.” Police and firefighters, also paid for by “the rest of us,” protect the factory owner’s property. As a result, our “underlying social contract” requires this hardworking but fortunate soul to “take a hunk” of his profits “and pay forward for the next kid who comes along.”

In other words, there are no self-made people because we are all part of society. Accomplished people benefit from advantages created by earlier generations (of parents whom we didn’t choose and taxpayers whom we’ve never met) and by the simple fact that they live in a country that provides opportunities that are not available everywhere. The successful thus owe quite a lot to the government and social structure that made their success possible.

Will… demonstrates his debating skills by first accusing Warren of being “a pyromaniac in a field of straw men,” and then by conceding the one and only point that Warren actually made. “Everyone,” he writes, “knows that all striving occurs in a social context, so all attainments are conditioned by their context.” Indeed. He gives us here a rigorous and concise summary of what she said. Will then adds: “This does not, however, entail a collectivist political agenda.” In intellectual contests, this is an MVP move. Having accused Warren of setting fire to straw men, Will has just introduced his own straw colossus. There is absolutely nothing in Warren’s statement that implied a “collectivist political agenda.” Will simply ascribes one to her by quoting a book published 53 years ago, “The Affluent Society,” in which the economist John Kenneth Galbraith spoke of how corporate advertising could manipulate consumer preferences….

My colleague has brought out his full rhetorical arsenal to beat back a statement that he grants upfront is so obviously true that it cannot be gainsaid. Will knows danger when he sees it. What Warren has done is to make a proper case for liberalism, which does not happen often enough. Liberals believe that the wealthy should pay more in taxes than “the rest of us” because the well-off have benefited the most from our social arrangements. This has nothing to do with treating citizens as if they were cows incapable of self-government….

That Warren has so inspired Will, our premier conservative polemicist now that William F. Buckley Jr. has passed to his eternal reward, is an enormous tribute to her. And remember: On the core point about the social contract, George Will and Elizabeth Warren are in full, if awkward, agreement.

Matt Edgar:

The pace of change: Finally, as David Edgerton shows in his solid and empirical book “The Shock of the Old”, the use-histories of technologies are far more elongated than we’d expect. Finland, for example, reached peak horse only in the 1950s. When will we hit peak transistor? We cannot possibly know until some time after we get there.

• Jake Tapper: "GOP Wants to ‘Suffocate the Economy’ for a ‘Political Victory’" abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics…

• RT @thinkprogress: WASHINGTON (AP) _ Perry, through spokesman, refuses Romney request to disavow pastor who called Mormonism cult

• RT @mattyglesias: To offer an argument you don't believe in is dishonest. No need for a modifier.

• RT @daveweigel: Old enough to remember when dirty hippies claimed Lieberman was against Dems on things besides the Iraq War

• RT @nybooks: William Nordhaus: “People are reluctant to allow energy prices to reflect the true social costs of [its] consumption”

• RT @ThePlumLineGS: Obama team seems determined to prod media into asking whether GOP really wants to help fix economy http://t.co/xX1IX4FJ

• RT @ggreeneva: @WashingtonPost's op-ed page branches out, extols ignorance on subject other than climate change: http://t.co/xgvENQGf

• RT @dantoffey: Pretty funny, this. * RT @delong: Hoisted from Comments: The Three Jobs of Erick, Son of Erick http://t.co/rQg44OG1

• RT @jonward11: Perry spox Mark Miner: "Mitt Romney's comments are a distraction from the the fact that Romneycare served as a blueprint ...

• RT @drgrist: You can tell Romney & Christie are "moderates" b/c both used to take climate seriously before they flip-flopped to please t ...

• Martin Wolf: "First aid is not a cure for the Eurozone" ft.com/cms/s/0/f84a5d…

• @Spafloating: Did You Hear They Invented Indoor Plumbing? feedly.com/k/q0pvXV

• Book of the Day: RomneyCare/ObamaCare Edition bit.ly/oNoMCY

• RT @alanbeattie: When Geithner said Europe cd learn from the US Tarp experience, he prob didn't mean the bit where Congress rejected it ...

• RT @nytimeseconomix: Bankers' Salaries Vs. Everyone Else's nyti.ms/ojMv2y

• Ivan Werning: Managing a Liquidity Trap: Fiscal and Monetary Policy bit.ly/nhNCnD

• RT @alanbeattie: Global Blackberry failure: this is Steve Jobs, right? Got his wings, got his harp, now using new angelic powers to make ...

• RT @thinkprogress: Bloomberg Poll: 68% of Americans want to raise taxes on rich. But only 13% want to cut Social Security. 14% want Medi ...

• RT @AmyEGardner: Aaaand of course the Bloomberg VIP tent in Hanover is serving lobster rolls for dinner. Thank you, debate partner.

Ivan Werning: Managing a Liquidity Trap: Fiscal and Monetary Policy http://dl.dropbox.com/u/125966/zero_bound_2011.pdf

Add this to the pile...

Interlocutor: Never read the WaPo op-ed columns! The stupidity burns too much!

Me: Thiessen or Will? Or somebody else?

Interlocutor: Richard Cohen.

Indeed, Richard Cohen is very proud that he was, is, and will apparently remain forever ignorant of whom David Barron, Hon. S. William Green Professor of Public Law at Harvard Law School, is.

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

UPDATE: And I forgot to even consider Robert Samuelson! This is what we call a target-rich environment!

pseudonymous in NC:

Erick Erickson Refuses to Tell Adam Serwer What His "Three Jobs" Are...: Is that the same Eric Erickson who quit his job as a Macon city councillor in mid-term, having failed to attend most of its meetings for the best part of a year?

http://www.macon.com/2011/02/17/1454646/erickson-steps-down-from-council.html

Select quotes:

• "I’m not going to turn down a full-time career opportunity for a part-time City Council job.”
• He also just bought a new house slightly closer to Atlanta and will move this weekend, he said. The new address given in his resignation letter is a five-bedroom, four-bath house just north of Bass Road and Interstate 75. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcBk1oeNEaw

And Jim Gaines:

February 17, 2011: Erickson steps down from Macon council: After serving less than one term, Erick Erickson is leaving Macon City Council for an earlier time slot for a radio show he began hosting last month. “I’m not going to turn down a full-time career opportunity for a part-time City Council job,” Erickson said Wednesday afternoon. He sent a resignation letter to Mayor Robert Reichert and Council President Miriam Paris, copied to senior city staff, Wednesday morning….

In January, Erickson was hired to host a radio show on 95.5 WSB-FM…. He also just bought a new house slightly closer to Atlanta and will move this weekend, he said. The new address given in his resignation letter is a five-bedroom, four-bath house just north of Bass Road and Interstate 75. Erickson’s resignation letter includes some of the same rhetoric usual in his columns for The Telegraph and online writings.

I am also glad to have been put in a position to fight back against the all too frequent bullying and inappropriate and misplaced screams of racism that occur on Council,” he wrote. “The behavior of some has too often resembled that of third world kleptocrats and I have relished the opportunity to point out and combat the behavior.

Even if Erickson could legally stay on the council, he’s too busy as a radio host, website editor and family man to do the job, his letter states….

He hasn’t actually attended a full City Council meeting since Jan. 4.

He missed three subsequent ones, and he wasn’t there for 13 of the 27 council meetings in 2010 -- nearly twice as many absences as any other council member. Council has held two work sessions in 2011, and Erickson missed them both. He attended… only three… out of 19... in 2010.

He hasn’t attended an Ordinances & Resolutions Committee meeting, of which he’s a member, in nearly five months. His last appearance there was Oct. 4, and there have been nine meetings since then….

Erickson also is a member of the Community Resources and Development Committee but hasn’t been to any of its four meetings held since Dec. 7. And he was only at nine of the committee’s 20 meetings in all of 2010.

The Public Properties Committee, which Erickson chairs, hasn’t met at all this year. He attended its last meeting, Dec. 14, but missed two of the 16 prior meetings in 2010.

Erickson, whose Red State.com blog regularly rails against government spending, has continued to draw his City Council paycheck every two weeks, according to Human Resources Director Ben Hubbard...

Nazis advancing on Moscow capture Borodino, site of Napoleon's Pyrrhic victory over Kutuzov's Russian army in 1812

Adam Serwer:

Conservative Pundit Says "Get A Job Hippies!": The phrase "work three jobs" appears frequently in stories about economic malaise. It generally refers to people whom are underemployed and working many labor-intensive, low-benefit, low-paying jobs in order to pay their bills and get by. Of course, part of the reason it comes up so much is that the economy is so bad that there really are a large number of people working multiple jobs to pay their bills and still struggling….

Conservatives, seeking to dampen the message of the "We are the 99 Percent" message put forth by the Occupy Wall Street protesters, started a tumblr of their own titled "We are the 53 percent"... refers to the percentage of Americans who pay federal income taxes, the implication being that those Americans who don't make enough money to pay income taxes are scofflaws living lives of lavish comfort. People who don't pay federal income taxes nevertheless pay other kinds of taxes, state taxes, payroll taxes, and the like, but why get bogged down in the details when you're trying to portray half the country as a bunch of shiftless freeloaders?

Conservative blogger Erick Erickson, in the tumblr's first post interprets the "work three jobs" thing somewhat differently…. Erickson's three jobs? I emailed him to ask but he didn't respond. Based on his various online biographies, however, he's managing editor of a blog, he hosts a radio show, and he's a CNN contributor. He's the hardest working man in America

Ezra Klein:

What Washington should have done to create jobs: Housing is a clearer case of the administration failing to get anything near the boundaries of the possible. No one I spoke to inside the administration is happy with how its housing policies turned out. In this area, the two clear missed opportunities were the administration’s failure to move quickly in appointing a friendlier regulator to lead Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — it didn’t nominate anyone until November 2010, by which time emboldened Republicans were filibustering Obama’s nominees — and to push legislation allowing bankruptcy judges to reduce mortgage principal. Together, the two moves could have led to more refinancing for underwater homeowners and more recourse for bankrupt homeowners.

The game changer, however, would have been massive debt forgiveness. This could have been done through a federal program to purchase troubled mortgages and give homeowners better rates, as John McCain proposed late in the 2008 campaign, or by nationalizing the banks and taking the bad debts off their books, or some other option….

[W]e could have taken a page out of the German playbook and launched a program to pay employers who cut hours rather than fired workers. In the second case, the government could have provided more help to state and local governments, which have lost more than 500,000 jobs, and tried direct-employment schemes like Christina Romer’s idea to hire 100,000 teacher’s aides….

A more aggressive Federal Reserve could have used everything from jawboning the market to purchasing larger quantities of housing and corporate bonds to ending interest payments for banks that are simply socking away the money.

Would any or all of these policies have turned the unrecovery into a real recovery? They certainly could have helped. The good news, of course, is that they could help now, too. The problem isn’t that we are out of policy ammunition. It’s that Republicans in Congress don’t want to pull the trigger.

It is not Republicans in Congress that kept and are keeping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from offering to refinance every mortgage in the country at the Treasury rate--if the homeowners give them warrants for non-conforming mortgages.

It is not Republicans in Congress that kept and are keeping the Treasury and the Federal Reserve from establishing facilities to greatly ease the cost of borrowing to finance infrastructure and operations by states that have credible debt amortization plans in place.

It is not Republicans in Congress that kept and are keeping the Federal Reserve from charging for reserve balances or engaging in more quantitative easing or targeting the nominal GDP growth path.

LOL:

ezraklein Ezra Klein: Hey, look! Behavioral economist @R_Thaler is on Twitter! 23 minutes ago in reply to ↑

@alanbeattie Alan Beattie: @ezraklein But why has @R_Thaler joined twitter? There must be some heuristic that explains his decision.

"'No matter what romantics may think, traders do not go on quests. What you ask ... is impossible, mere Beyonders seeking to subvert a Power.'

"Yet that was a risk you signed for. But Ravna didn't say it aloud. Perhaps Greenstalk did: her fronds rustled, and Blueshell scrinched even more. Greenstalk was silent for a second, then she did something funny with her axles, bumping free of the stickem. Her wheels spun on nothing as she floated through a slow arc, till she was upside down, her fronds reaching down to brush Blueshell's. They rattled back and forth for almost five minutes.

"Blueshell slowly untwisted, the fronds relaxing and patting back at his mate.

"Finally he said. 'Very well.... One quest. But mark you! Never another.'"

--Vernor Vinge: A Fire Upon the Deep

My favorite moment in all science fiction: a potted plant on a skateboard decides to be very brave.

Vernor Vinge's Children of the Sky is published today...

Robert Samuelson:

The legacy of Steve Jobs: I do not own an iPad, an iPhone, an iPod or a Mac. I abandoned my typewriter only recently. In short, I have not enlisted in the digital revolution….

By history’s measure, [Steve] Jobs’s achievements are tiny. Transforming the music industry is not the same as transforming society. There are many technological advances that had a far larger impact on society: antibiotics, air travel, air conditioning and television. By contrast, many of Apple’s products are gadgets, as commentators have noted. Their ultimate social impact may be less than Facebook’s….

[Jobs's]modest legacy will fade with time. A century from now, historians and ordinary Americans will still remember Edison and Ford. Jobs will be a footnote, if that.

You know, a bunch of times over the past decade people have told me that they were surprised when talking to Robert Samuelson about how little he had read, and how much he did not know.

I think now we understand why...

Steve Benen watches the train wreck and twitters:

Thomas Friedman seems to have no idea how much Obama already agrees with him http://bit.ly/nXXzxr It leads to odd columns.

• http://www.digitopoly.org/2011/10/06/jobs-a-vision-of-american-entrepreneurship/ Tim Bresnehan on Steve Jobs

• http://blogs.reuters.com/felix-salmon/2011/10/10/chart-of-the-day-median-income-edition/ Felix Salmon: "Chart of the Day: Median Income Edition" #recommended

• http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jared-bernstein/the-selfimposed-limits-of_b_1003687.html Jared Bernstein: "The Self-Imposed Limits of Reaction to a Crisis" #recommended

• The American Spectator Has Declined from the Days When They Used to Attack Albert Einstein http://bit.ly/ql8OP2

• RT @drgrist: In fact, it was GOP amendment blocking imaginary EPA dust regs that finally pushed Reid over the edge on his parliamentary ...

• http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/10/10/downgrading-triple-b-recovery-to-triple-c-crisis/ Joachim Fels: "Downgrading Triple-B Recovery to Triple-C Crisis" #recommended

• http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2011/10/economic-crisis Ryan Avent: "This time was different, and could have been more different still" #recommended

• Felix Salmon: Median Income Trends http://bit.ly/pG3dnU

• RT @xpostfactoid1: Touching faith, @davidfrum ! GOP leaders "are expressing opinions they have never acted on in office & won’t act on i ...

• RT @stevebenen: Thomas Friedman seems to have no idea how much Obama already agrees with him http://bit.ly/nXXzxr It leads to odd columns

• RT @michaelianblack: Wall Street up 330 points today! I am no longer sympathetic to the protestors.

• RT @danielpunkass: Netflix to announce $1 Million prize for the team that develops an algorithm for efficiently running the company.

• RT @attackerman: I wish DC Metro was a person so I could murder it in an unspeakable way.

• RT @klhoughton: .@delong For the record, Oklahoma Joe's has lost competition at last two Kauffman Institute blogger fora. (It was close ...

• RT @mattyglesias: Oklahoma Joe's BBQ in Kansas City is, indeed, the best: http://ygl.as/oK200v

• RT @Panglossnotes: Wonder whether Marty Lederman will ever again write for Balkinization given this: Restraints on Executive Power http: ...

• RT @SamsGoodMeats: I wish more political pundits would take on this critical issue RT @mattyglesias: Oklahoma Joe's BBQ in KC = the best ...

• What Are Erick Erickson's Three Jobs? http://bit.ly/mVZyc1

Astroturf is a wonderful thing...

Suzy Khimm points us to redstate.org leader and right-wing establishment figure @ewerickson declares he is "one of the 53%": part of this generation's "silent majority" who are upset at #occupywallstreet and its attacks on the top 1%:

What Erick says:

I work three jobs.

I have a house I can't sell.

My family insurance costs are outrageous.

But I don't blame Wall Street.

Suck it up you whiners.

I am the 53% subsidizing you so you can hang out on Wall Street and complain.

Erick should blame not Wall Street but the health-insurance industry for the fact that his family insurance costs are outrageous--but at least come 2014 the Obama-Romney Affordable Care Act will give him the bargaining power that those of us who work for large organizations have in the health insurance marketplace and lower his insurance costs to more reasonable levels.

Erick should blame Wall Street for the fact that he can't sell his house: had Wall Street not broken mortgage finance, and had the breaking of mortgage finance not led to the general credit crunch that launched our Lesser Depression, then Erick would be able to sell his house.

And it is not clear to me what Erick's three jobs are: his internet biographies mention (i) right-wing internet community organizer, (ii) CNN commentator, and (iii) radio host. Are these his "three jobs"? Most of us would say that those are three aspects of one occupation--not three jobs. People who work three jobs are people who teach elementary school in the morning and early afternoon, take a shift at the car wash around dinnertime, and work a pre-dawn shift at a 24-hour 7-11. That does not sound like Erick, Son of Erick to me.

At least one non-Mormon says that it is very nearby--just across the Missouri River in fact: Oklahoma Joe's BBQ In Kansas City [KS].

Me? I thought that the text of Genesis pinned down the location of the Garden of Eden to somewhere in the Middle East:

And the LORD God planted a garden eastward in Eden; and there he put the man whom he had formed. And out of the ground made the LORD God to grow every tree that is pleasant to the sight, and good for food; the tree of life also in the midst of the garden, and the tree of knowledge of good and evil. And a river went out of Eden to water the garden; and from thence it was parted, and became into four heads. The name of the first is Pison: that is it which compasseth the whole land of Havilah, where there is gold; And the gold of that land is good: there is bdellium and the onyx stone. And the name of the second river is Gihon: the same is it that compasseth the whole land of Ethiopia. And the name of the third river is Hiddekel: that is it which goeth toward the east of Assyria. And the fourth river is Euphrates…

We know what the Euphrates is. The "Hiddekel" river is the Tigris. It makes for a rather large Garden indeed that includes the Anatolian headwaters of both, but it is rather far from Missouri...

Felix Salmon writes:

Chart of the day, median income edition | Felix Salmon: Every month, the Current Population Survey goes out to a nationally representative sample of more than 50,000 interviewed households and their members. And in one of the questions, those households… are asked how much money they made, in total, over the past 12 months…. [I]t’s possible to put together an apples-to-apples comparison of what has happened to household income every month.

And when you do that, the results are very scary…. More striking still is the huge erosion in [real] incomes over the course of the supposed “recovery” — the most recent two years, since the Great Recession ended…. In dollar terms, median household income is now $49,909, down $3,609 — or 6.7% — in the two years since the recession ended. It was as high as $55,309 in December 2007, when the recession began….

[I]n the absence of any good reason to discount the reliability of these numbers, it’s definitely worth taking them seriously, and asking why incomes have eroded so quickly and dramatically over the past two years…

..

My guess is that the "last twelve month's income" reports are a combination of (a) actual income and (b) consumer confidence. Anybody with spare time on their hands today want to check?

Thoreau on Marty Lederman and David Barron: "[S]ome of the people who wanted restraints on executive power when there was a Red boot stomping on a human face will serve as death panelists when there’s a Blue boot stomping on a human face."

It’s sports bar all the way down:

Martin Lederman, 2007:

In that respect, what’s been really quite radical are the president’s and the vice president’s views that in numerous cases, statutes duly enacted by the Congress are not necessarily binding on the president to the extent that they impinge on his discretion about how to best fight the enemy.

David Barron, 2008:

The Bush Administration has claimed the constitutional power to defy a number of extant statutory restrictions on executive war powers that would otherwise cabin the Commander in Chief’s discretion.

Now:

It was principally drafted by David Barron and Martin Lederman, who were both lawyers in the Office of Legal Counsel at the time, and was signed by Mr. Barron. The office may have given oral approval for an attack on Mr. Awlaki before completing its detailed memorandum. Several news reports before June 2010 quoted anonymous counterterrorism officials as saying that Mr. Awlaki had been placed on a kill-or-capture list around the time of the attempted bombing of a Detroit-bound airliner on Dec. 25, 2009. Mr. Awlaki was accused of helping to recruit the attacker for that operation.

The Teabaggers were right:  We really do have a death panel.  Just not the sort of death panel that they were rallying against.  And some of the people who wanted restraints on executive power when there was a Red boot stomping on a human face will serve as death panelists when there’s a Blue boot stomping on a human face.  Just as the Teabaggers were silent for 8 years.

… and replaced a team where at least some key senior players knew what they were doing with one in which nobody in the inner circle did.

Duncan Black watches:

Eschaton: Horrors: You know what would be business-friendly? Getting us out of recession and increasing demand for their products.

Mr. Daley has reason to be mad. He thought he was returning to Washington after a decade’s absence to soothe business leaders and strike confidence-building deals with Republicans.

Maybe there really is some ritual involving Jamie Dimon, aromatherapy, tax cuts, and the ritual sacrifice of 100 impoverished virgins, that will make the confidence fairy appear.

Or, you know, not.

John Harwood:

In Washington, a Season of Political In-Fighting: The top Senate Democrat, Harry Reid of Nevada, considers the White House chief of staff, William M. Daley, to be ham-handed. Democratic leaders complain that Team Obama’s zeal for secrets creates more problems than it solves. For instance, Senate Democrats believe inadequate consultation led the White House to botch the unveiling of “pay-fors” for Mr. Obama’s jobs package. Instead of reducing oil industry tax breaks and deductions for affluent taxpayers, which produced Democratic defections, they wanted the White House to adopt the “millionaire’s surtax” that the Senate is now substituting….

Within Mr. Obama’s circle, recriminations include complaints that Mr. Daley and the White House political strategist David Plouffe invested too much faith for too long in their ability to strike a debt-ceiling “grand bargain” with the House speaker, John A. Boehner. Some Obama advisers look back at the springtime standoff over government spending as a missed opportunity to confront Republicans, risking a government shutdown then that might have averted debt-ceiling paralysis later.

Mr. Daley has reason to be mad. He thought he was returning to Washington after a decade’s absence to soothe business leaders and strike confidence-building deals with Republicans.

So does Mr. Obama, who does not hide his frustration over the turn toward full-throated combat he now considers unavoidable. Nor do his aides hide theirs, over news accounts that they believe don’t adequately fault Republicans.

That’s what 9.1 percent unemployment, 39 percent presidential approval (in Gallup’s weekend tracking) and 11 percent approval of Congress (in a CBS News poll last week) will do…

And Jared Bernstein makes the case for "at least we did the best we could" in 2009-2010:

Jared Bernstein:

The Self-Imposed Limits of Reaction to a Crisis | Jared Bernstein | On the Economy: Ezra Klein has… written a cautionary tale.  We should read this piece not just to look backwards about what we got wrong, but to figure out how to fix the process going forwards….

[T]here’s a design flaw that causes our government to underreact to crises like the Great Recession.  In fact, there are a number of such flaws, some of which, like basic checks of concentrated power, serve us well in normal times.  But the flaw on which I focus below—the deep misunderstanding and irrational fear of budget deficits—is something that we can and should change…. When an equity (as opposed to a debt) bubble pops, markets move quickly to mark down the asset inflation born of speculation.  A share of stock in some worthless fad that was worth $1,000 on Monday can be worth $1 by Friday. Debt bubbles don’t work that way.  Debt-based assets don’t get “marked-to-market” in the same way as stocks.  De-nile ain’t just a river, and banks who hold such assets can engage in “extend and pretend” in a way they can’t when an equity bubble pops.  This is especially the case in a housing bubble….

Is the Federal Government Capable of Reacting As Needed?

In the current context, the answer to the above question is clearly no…. Here’s how Ezra puts it…

These crises have a sort of immune system. It is never possible for the political system to do enough to stop them at the outset, as it is never quite clear how bad they are. Even if it were, the system is ill-equipped to take action at that scale. The actors comfort themselves with the thought that if they need to do more, they can do it later. And, for now, the fact that this is the largest rescue package anyone has ever seen has to be worth something. Perversely, the very size of the package is part of its problem. With something extraordinary that is nevertheless not enough, the economy deteriorates, and the government sees its solutions discredited and its political standing weakened by the worsening economic storm. That keeps it from doing more….

[T]he fact that we failed to recognize the depth of the recession was not at the heart of the problem.  Other trusted voices—Klein mentions Krugman and Stiglitz (I’d add Dean Baker and Larry Mishel)—were warning that things were going to be worse than our forecast, and we heard them…. Our mistake was failing to follow up on the initial success…. What kept us from doing more?  In fact, we did do more, but again, not enough.  We extended unemployment benefits, the first time homebuyers credit, the Hire Act, the payroll tax holiday, a small business lending bill, and more. Yet, we’re still stuck, and at this point even the tiniest policy lift is terribly heavy….

I do know that talking about green shoots didn’t help (I remember some critic at the time suggesting that we must be smoking green shoots). But I actually think the “green shoots” mistake is an important hint.  One reason to go there is because if you believe things are truly getting better—if you really think that soon the private sector can pick up the growth baton—then you can pivot away from spending toward deficit reduction.  And the internal desire to do that is always strong in the White House—at times like this, too strong…

I'm sorry, but no. Even if you think in 2009 that there will be a "V"-shaped recovery, you take steps in 2009 so that you can do the needed policy in 2010 if the "V"-shaped recovery does not materialized. You:

• Make sure the chair of the Federal Reserve does not regard the avoidance of absolute deflation as a reason to sit on his hands.
• Make sure the Fed chair is backed up by governors who understand the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.
• Prepare to do quantitative easing via the Treasury by using TARP authority money as mezzanine financing.
• Prepare to do infrastructure investment via the Treasury by using TARP authority money as mezzanine financing.
• Prepare to intervene in the housing market on a very large scale by getting Fannie and Freddie in shape to do so.
• Pass a budget resolution early in 2010 so that you can do expansionary policy via Reconciliation later on if you need to.

Those are six things you do in 2009 (and at the start of 2010) to prepare for an "L"-shaped recovery. Obama did zero of them.

"It has been frequently remarked that it seems to have been reserved to the people of this country, by their conduct and example, to decide the important question, whether societies of men are really capable or not of establishing good government from reflection and choice, or whether they are forever destined to depend for their political constitutions on accident and force."

--Alexander Hamilton, James Madison, and John Jay: The Federalist Papers

Ta-Nehisi Coates watches the dirigible explode:

This Is Why We Can't Have Nice Things...: An amateurish conservative media on display:

A conservative journalist has admitted to infiltrating the group of protesters who clashed with security at the Smithsonian's National Air and Space Museum on Saturday -- and he openly claims to have instigated the events that prompted the museum to close.

Patrick Howley, an assistant editor at the American Spectator, says that he joined the group under the pretense that he was a demonstrator. "As far as anyone knew I was part of this cause -- a cause that I had infiltrated the day before in order to mock and undermine in the pages of The American Spectator," Howley wrote. (The language in the story has since been changed without explanation.)

The story has since been taken down…. You may think it would be totally hilarious to disrupt a pinko commie rally. But you can't really do it and expect to be taken seriously.

Patrick Howley in The American Spectator:

WASHINGTON -- The fastest-running protesters charged up the steps of Washington's National Air and Space Museum Saturday afternoon to infiltrate the building and hang banners on the "shameful" exhibits promoting American imperialism. As the white-uniformed security guards hurried to physically block the entrances, only a select few -- myself, for journalistic purposes, included -- kept charging forward….

After sneaking past the guard at the first entrance, I found myself trapped in a small entranceway outside the second interior door behind a muscle-bound left-wing fanatic and a 300-pound guard. The fanatic shoved the guard and the guard shoved back, hard, sending this comrade -- and, by domino effect, me -- sprawling against the wall. After squeezing myself out from under him, I sprinted toward the door. Then I got hit….

But as far as anyone knew I was part of this cause -- a cause that I had infiltrated the day before in order to mock and undermine in the pages of The American Spectator -- and I wasn't giving up before I had my story. Under a cloud of pepper spray I forced myself into the doors and sprinted blindly across the floor of the Air and Space Museum, drawing the attention of hundreds of stunned khaki-clad tourists (some of whom began snapping off disposable-camera portraits of me). I strained to glance behind me at the dozens of protesters I was sure were backing me up, and then I got hit again, this time with a cold realization: I was the only one who had made it through the doors….

So I was surprised to find myself a fugitive Saturday afternoon, stumbling around aircraft displays with just enough vision to keep tabs on my uniformed pursuers. "The museum is now closed!" screamed one of the guards as alarms sounded. "Everyone make your way to the exits immediately!" Using my jacket to cover my face -- which I could feel swelling to Elephant Man proportions -- I ducked through the confused tourists and raced out the exit. "Hey, you!" shouted a female guard reaching for my arm. "Get back here!" But I was already down the steps and out of sight….

From estimates within the protest, only ten people were pepper-sprayed, and as far as I could tell I was the only one who got inside the museum.

In the absence of ideological uniformity, these protesters have no political power. Their only chance, as I saw it, was to push the envelope and go bold. But, if today's demonstration was any indicator, they don't have what it takes to even do that.

As I scrambled away from the scene of my crime, a police officer outside the museum gates pointed at my eyes, puffed out his chest, and shouted: "Yeah, that's right. That's right." He was proud that I had been pepper-sprayed, and, oddly, so was I. I deserved to get a face full of high-grade pepper, and the guards who sprayed me acted with more courage than I saw from any of the protesters. If you're looking for something to commend these days in America, start with those guards.

I have learned immense amounts from both of them.

And Sargent's night-school course in Littauer M-16 is neck-and-neck with Blanchard's advanced macro for the best single course I have ever taken.

Field Marshall Walther von Reichenau:

Subject: Conduct of Troops in Eastern Territories.

Regarding the conduct of troops towards the bolshevistic system, vague ideas are still prevalent in many cases. The most essential aim of war against the Jewish-bolshevistic system is a complete destruction of their means of power and the elimination of Asiatic influence from the European culture. In this connection the troops are facing tasks which exceed the one-sided routine of soldiering. The soldier in the Eastern territories is not merely a fighter according to the rules of the art of war but also a bearer of ruthless national ideology and the avenger of bestialities which have been inflicted upon German and racially related nations.

Therefore the soldier must have full understanding for the necessity of a severe but just revenge on subhuman Jewry. The Army has to aim at another purpose, i.e. the annihilation of revolts in hinterland, which, as experience proves, have always been caused by Jews.

The combating of the enemy behind the front line is still not being taken seriously enough. Treacherous, cruel partisans and degenerate women are still being made prisoners-of-war and guerilla fighters dressed partly in uniform or plain clothes and vagabonds are still being treated as proper soldiers, and sent to prisoner-of-war camps. In fact, captured Russian officers talk even mockingly about Soviet agents moving openly about the roads and very often eating at German field kitchens. Such an attitude of the troops can only be explained by complete thoughtlessness, so it is now high time for the commanders to clarify the meaning of the pressing struggle.

The feeding of the natives and of prisoners-of-war who are not working for the Armed forces from Army kitchens is an equally misunderstood humanitarian act as is the giving of cigarettes and bread. Things which the people at home can spare under great sacrifices and things which are being bought by the command to the front under great difficulties, should not be given to the enemy by the soldier even if they originate from booty. It is an important part of our supply.

When retreating the Soviets have often set buildings on fire. The troops should be interested in extinguishing of fires only as far as it is necessary to secure sufficient numbers of billets. Otherwise the disappearance of symbols of the former bolshevistic rule even in the form of buildings is part of the struggle of destruction. Neither historic nor artistic considerations are of any importance in the Eastern territories. The command issues the necessary directives for the securing of raw material and plants, essential for war economy. The complete disarming of the civilian population in the rear of the fighting troops is imperative considering the long vulnerable lines of communications. Where possible, captured weapons and ammunition should be stored and guarded. Should this be impossible because of the situation of the battle, the weapons and ammunition will be rendered useless. If isolated partisans are found using firearms in the rear of the army drastic measures are to be taken. These measures will be extended to that part of the male population who were in a position to hinder or report the attacks. The indifference of numerous apparently anti-Soviet elements which originates from a "wait and see" attitude, must give way to a clear decision for active collaboration. If not, no one can complain about being judged and treated a member of the Soviet system.

The fear of German counter-measures must be stronger than threats of the wandering bolshevistic remnants. Regardless of all future political considerations the soldier has to fulfill two tasks:

1. Complete annihilation of the false Bolshevist doctrine of the Soviet State and its armed forces.

2. The pitiless extermination of foreign treachery and cruelty and thus the protection of the lives of military personnel in Russia.

This is the only way to fulfill our historic task to liberate the German people once and for all from the Asiatic-Jewish danger.

Commander-in-Chief

von Reichenau

Field Marshal

• W3C Blog: "Steve Jobs and the actually usable computer"

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• No, Fear of Taxes and Regulation Are Not Our Big Problem. Fear of Loe Demand Is http://bit.ly/ntiP3j

• RT @alanbeattie: Dept of Told You So (apart from being 2 years early and not foreseeing Obama's rise or Berlusconi's resilience).

For inexplicable reasons, it continues to print Martin Peretz:

Marty Peretz, October 9, 2011:

I have a grudge against Kristof. Last year about this time he wrote a column attacking me for what he deemed racist words about Muslims. I apologized for one stupid, really stupid and perhaps also prejudiced remark about them. I’ve woken up nights thinking about this fault—yes, even sin—against conscience. But I am not so sure that my main point that Muslim societies and Arab societies tolerate mass violence with greater equanimity is wrong. Just think of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, Syria, Sudan, even Egypt. And Libya where the rebels are said to have triumphed over the tragic-comic personalist killer-fascism of Qaddafi. But in that liberated Libya there is an epidemic of revenge. Anyway, Kristof wrote and a mob of thugs, following him, so to speak, tried to chase me across Harvard Yard, shouting, “Peretz is a racist pig.” Big triumph for Kristof and his sensitive sensibility…

Marty Peretz, September 4, 2010:

Frankly, Muslim life is cheap, most notably to Muslims. And among those Muslims led by the Imam Rauf there is hardly one who has raised a fuss about the routine and random bloodshed that defines their brotherhood. So, yes, I wonder whether I need honor these people and pretend that they are worthy of the privileges of the First Amendment which I have in my gut the sense that they will abuse...

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

Marty Peretz, September 4, 2010:

Frankly, Muslim life is cheap, most notably to Muslims. And among those Muslims led by the Imam Rauf there is hardly one who has raised a fuss about the routine and random bloodshed that defines their brotherhood. So, yes, I wonder whether I need honor these people and pretend that they are worthy of the privileges of the First Amendment which I have in my gut the sense that they will abuse...

Michael Walzer,September 25, 2010:

I wonder if you have undertaken a survey of everything that every present member of the Social Studies faculty has said in postings, in footnotes, in lectures to make sure that nothing they have said is offensive or hurtful or embarrassing. If you are not doing that, well you had better start doing that because you will find a lot of things that you do not like.

Vannevar Bush meets with President Roosevelt. Asks for permission to proceed with what would become the Manhattan Project.

From EPI:

"Indeed, the construction of a global telegraph network was widely expected, by Briggs and Maverick among others, to result in world peace: "It is impossible that old prejudices and hostilities should longer exist, while such an instrument has been created for the exchange of thought between all the nations of the earth.""

October 09, 2011 at 12:29 | Permalink | Comments (0)

• RT @Ihnatko: I never realized that the text in the TextEdit icon is the "Crazy Ones" speech. (Thanks, @toddwichmann) http://pic.twitter.com/DpSaKn2V

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• RT @ezraklein: "Everything follows from missing the call on Reinhart-Rogoff," says Peter Orszag. http://wapo.st/pmALYW #longread

• RT @drgrist: Hey @NYTimes: would it have killed you to acknowledge the bloggers & activists who first broke this story? http://is.gd/RfVg8U

• @ggreenwald I was called an "Iron Butterfly Drum Circle Keynesian"...

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Ezra Klein on Obama administration economic policy: Could this time have been different?

Note that even though there was no silver bullet, a lot more little- and medium-sized things could have been done--and some could still be done--that together would make a real difference.