Mike Konczal writes:
Checking in on the Unemployment by Duration Numbers, Fall 2011 Edition: One key argument you hear is that unemployment is really just about the long-term unemployed. The market is split into a healthy, normal labor market of people who have only been unemployed a short period of time and a pool of long-term unemployed who are unproductive and disconnected to the point where traditional monetary and fiscal stimulus won’t help them. This is behind much of the “zero marginal product” arguments….
The difficultly of finding a job has increase for all duration groups, more for the short-term unemployed than for the long-term unemployed, and has stayed that way post-Great Recession. The big raw drops in the probability of finding a job occurred to those who have been unemployed for less than 15 weeks…. It is still a weak market across the board, even for those who are recently unemployed….
Like most economic indicators, the economy was in free-fall throughout 2009, recovered a bit in 2010 and has stayed virtually the same in 2011. There’s a long way to go, and extending unemployment insurance is part of the way to get us there.