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Why Won't Paul Ryan Change His Mind?

Menzie Chinn

Econbrowser: High Inflation at the Gates?: The Federal Reserve needs to raise interest rates to stave off inflation, says Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis. "I'm worried they're not going to pre-empt inflation," the House Budget Committee Chairman tells CNBC…. "I'm worried they're going to see it too late and we're going to have a problem."

That's a quote from February 2011….

Note that three month headline inflation is negative, while m/m is zero. Three month core rates are slightly higher, although there is some dispersion.

While current inflation is moderate, one could argue -- as Representative Ryan has -- that future inflation is the concern. Survey based measures indicate little movement.

But marking his beliefs to market is simply not on Paul Ryan's agenda…

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