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There Is a Huge Amount of Mean Reversion in Nate Silver's Model Right Now...

Election Forecasts  FiveThirtyEight Blog  NYTimes com

Election Forecasts  FiveThirtyEight Blog  NYTimes com 1

A week ago both his forecast and his now-cast predicted that Obama would win 314 electoral votes: now the now-cast is up to 319, and the forecast is down to 302.

Considering that Silver's forecast F is roughly F = λ(polls) + (1-λ)(fundamentals), either λ must be really small or truly extraordinary things have happened to Silver's fundamentals in the past week…

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