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Cycle and Structure

Mark Thoma:

Cyclical Zombies: Stephen Roach argues in this article that the "current medicine being applied to America's economy" is wrong. The real disease is a:

protracted balance-sheet recession that has turned a generation of America’s consumers into zombies – the economic walking dead. Think Japan, and its corporate zombies of the 1990’s. Just as they wrote the script for the first of Japan’s lost decades, their counterparts are now doing the same for the US economy.

This is an argument that has been used before during the current crisis: we are trying to fix a structural problem with medicine that can only deal with cyclical misalignments....

There is no doubt that asset bubbles and excessive optimism during the pre-crisis years are now reflected in weak balance sheets that will take time to fix and will represent a drag on growth. And this clearly is not a mere cyclical issue.

But there is something else that is going on: advanced economies have gone through a deep recession and are still producing below potential. This is not structural, this is cyclical. And finding a solution to the structural problem in the middle of a recession is not easy...

Indeed. Structural problems can be resolved relatively easily during times of near-full employment. They are unlikely to be easily resolved during times of deep depression.

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