Dan Drezner: "Your humble blogger was innocently surfing the web yesterday when someone linked to Niall Ferguson's latest Newsweek column. Now even though I've warned everyone -- repeatedly -- not to go to there, I made the mistake of clicking"
Paul Krugman: Who Ordered This?

No Daily Wang Today...

Sam Wang's Princeton Electoral Consortium website http://election.princeton.edu is still hosed...

I was wrong: there is a Daily Wang today. They got something back up:

‎election princeton edu

They give 19-1 odds against Romney if you are ignorant of background fundamentals, 99-1 odds against Romney if you make reasonable prior assumptions about background fundamentals and are Bayesian.

Me? I think Sam is doing something like using the Gaussian copula here--the odds are odds within the model, and the model is not the world. I'm with Nate, who still gives Romney a 1 in 5 chance.

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