If Karen Tumulty did her homework, she would know that a plot electoral vote-popular vote decision is not a 50% probability but a 10% probability, and she would know that neither William Galston nor Mark Mackinnon is a reliable authority on this issue--or, indeed, on much of anything.
But she doesn't. So she doesn't:
Romney, Obama could split popular and electoral college vote, polls suggest: So here’s a prospect worth contemplating: What if Romney carries the popular vote, but Obama regains the presidency by winning 270 votes or more in the electoral college?
“I think it’s a 50/50 possibility — or more,” said Mark McKinnon, who was a political strategist for President George W. Bush.
“If the election were held tomorrow, it wouldn’t just be a possibility, it would be actual,” added William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, who also served as a policy adviser to President Bill Clinton.
This is beyond embarrassing for her. Why oh why can't she do her homework?