It Is Worth Noting That From the Perspective of the Poll-Aggregation Community the Question Is Why Nate Silver Pegs Romney's Changes So High...
And We Have David Frum's Romney Endorsement!

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Chris Cillizza has angered Sam Wang and his commenters: you don't want to see Sam Wang angry!

Tim Shields: Hello Dr. Wang. Thank you so much for your site. I'm wondering if you've seen the terrible news that The Washington Post's Chris Cillizza has downgraded Ohio to "tossup". Why? Because "...the absolute necessity for Romney to win the state if he wants to be president — leads us to move it back to the “tossup” category." Oh good Lord. Many of the commenters have already given him the drubbing he most thoroughly deserves…. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/11/01/ohio-moves-back-into-the-toss-up-category-on-fix-electoral-map/

Sam Wang: @BradDeLong, I admit to being a bit stumped as to why Nate's model gives such large uncertainties - honestly, I think his model is a bit too elaborate. It is to the race what SimCity is to a real city. Also, I suspect him of accidentally double-counting some uncertainties. My calculations are fairly transparent. Even if one adds a correlated error (@SteveMarks's question, which I dealt with in 2008 - takes some digging to find while my server is down), the resulting uncertainty is still not that large. The sharper picture comes from poll-based probabilities and stopping there. If you stop to think about it, the uncertainties shouldn't be all that large with so much state-level data available.

Piktor Pik: Sam, do you know why your site is down? Your blog posts are addictive and there's an election or something next week. Please fix your site quick or this election thingy will be over without your wise spoutings.

Sam Wang: I see that Chris Cillizza joins the ranks of those who want to get more readers before Tuesday. Mass media offers perverse incentives: being precise loses readers, and implying a tossup brings people back. Maybe I should write about that...

Sam Wang: Piktor, have you noticed that I am still writing them???

Brad DeLong Sam: You are referring to his moving Ohio to "tossup" because it is a must-win for Romney?…

Jon Valdez: I had the same conclusion about Cillizza. Interesting that nobody on on MSNBC, or CNN, is really comfortable saying Obama is in the lead, and will probably win, but over on Faux, They all have already declared Romney the winner, and picking his cabinet.

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