Noted for December 21, 2012
Worth Reading:
Noam Scheiber: "what Obama failed to understand is that… he was never negotiating with Boehner. He was always negotiating with the majority of the House GOP…. Making concessions to them didn’t make a deal more likely. It just undermined his own position…. [That's] why going over the cliff always looked more or less inevitable…"
Everything You Need To Know About the Economy in 2012, in 34 Charts
Paul Krugman: On Not Seeing the Forest for the Equations: "I think [Noah] Smith is missing the point here. Alchemists and chemists used similar equipment…. That didn't make them the same endeavor. New Keynesians and real business cycle theorists both… use similar equations to represent consumer and producer behavior…. [T]his doesn't make them the same endeavor…. [W]hen the financial crisis struck… to a man freshwater economists not only argued against fiscal stimulus--which is a defensible position--but insisted that there was no possible way to justify stimulus, that such ideas had been refuted and that 'nobody' believed in them anymore. The only way to understand these claims is to realize that the freshwater types simply didn't accept the legitimacy of what the New Keynesians were doing--in fact, didn't even bother to read any of it…. [Y]es, the equations in one of Mike Woodford';s papers look a lot like the equations coming out of Chicago or Minneapolis. And a few years ago it was possible to delude oneself into believing that this represented a true convergence of thought. But recent events have proved that it just wasn't true."
Kevin Outterson: NEJM Health Law Roundup | The Incidental Economist: "States that forgo Medicaid expansion will lose billions… that would have flowed through insurance plans to hospitals, doctors and other providers…. I predict significant political pressure for governors to not take the Red State Option…. [S]tates will lose billions of DSH funding over the next decade. Loss of some DSH was a tolerable bargain when hospitals were promised near-universal enrollment…. John Graves crunches the numbers and quantifies how much the Red State Option will hurt DSH…"
Robert Waldmann: Brad DeLong: I Think Noah Smith Gets One Wrong: State-of-Macroeconomics Weblogging: "I'm going to be very pedantic. do the techniques of modern macro lead Williamson to include that low interest rates must lead to deflation? Yes indeed they do, because one of those techniques is assuming a steady state and another is linearizing around it.The core assumptions of taste and technology do not imply a steady state (let alone a unique steady state). But assuming one is, like assuming rational expectations, standard practice."
Jonathan Chait explains whyMcArdle Wins Worst Newtown Reaction Award
Paul Krugman: [P]olitical events occur, as it were, twice--the first time as near-tragedy, the second time as farce: In 2011, President Obama very nearly did immense damage to both the social safety net and the future of his party by offering a disastrous budget deal…. This time around, Obama holds a much stronger position, yet for a couple of days there he seemed once again to be negotiating with himself…. [I]t was an offer, not a deal — and there was good reason to fear that Obama, having arguably already given away too much, was getting ready to give away substantially more. Rabid ferrets to the rescue! It's still not clear what Boehner thought he was doing In floating his 'Plan B'…. But he's definitely disabused the Obama people of any notion that they're finally having a serious, good-faith negotiation…. Some alleged experts still think we'll have a deal before we go over the cliff. Maybe they know their business, but I don't see it. And the capitulation we all feared seems a lot less likely than it did two days ago. Thanks, ferrets!"
Noam Scheiber: Why Obama Must Go Over The Cliff To Save His Second Term
Neil Buchanan: How Many Times Will Speaker Boehner Save President Obama From Himself?: The Budget Negotiations Show That the President Is Still a Center-Right Politician Elected by Center-Left Voters
Lisa Pollack: Decoding that Basel securitisation proposal, one annoying acronym at a time
Introducing Typingpool, My Software for Easy Audio Transcription | Ryan Tate
Twittering:
Sorry--idea that Obama offered 400K & CPI change bc he knew Boehner wld reject it is nuts. At some pt, will be a deal. That's now O's posiiotn
— Noam Scheiber (@noamscheiber) December 20, 2012
Brian Beutler @brianbeutler: Exclusive internal whip count suggests Plan B will pass with 330 electoral votes.
billmon @billmon1: Plan B on life support, no brain functions (never had). How long do we wait for surgical team to kibbitz before we call time of death?
Cardiff Garcia @CardiffGarcia: Economy bad; savers: "Interest rates low and I can't make money!" Economy good; savers: "Inflation is eroding my wealth!"
Derek Thompson @DKThomp Most That's-Not-a-Graph-But-We'll-Take-It-Anyway Graph: @felixsalmon's high-frequency trading GIF
Josh Barro @jbarroL The 50 worst columns of 2012. Charlotte Allen on Palin for POTUS & Tom Friedman on Duncan for State didn't make the cut
Zack Beauchamp @zackbeauchamp: George Will is extremely concerned that the wrong people might be voting. It's just a coincidence that many are black.
Matt O'Brien @ObsoleteDogma: Click RT @Neil_Irwin: There is no fiscal crisis. And macroeconomics is not a morality play. http://wapo.st/V8OsIP
Joseph Weisenthal @TheStalwart: Interesting RT @PIMCO: Les Miserables: How many years will we put up with minus 1% real 10-year rates? Please sir can you spare some gruel?
George Will: Do You Know Who Else Had High Voter Participation? Hitler! http://bit.ly/USpdIy
J. Bradford DeLong @delong: @pkedrosky My iPhone4s gets so hot it scorches my flesh as it flash-consumes its battery power!
Andrew Kaczynski @BuzzFeedAndrew: The first two sentences in this Charlotte Allen piece contain five factual errors. http://pic.twitter.com/47bNuIrE
OMB Watch @OMBWatch: Pres Obama's #ifscalcliff proposal includes 90% of cuts in #SimpsonBowles for 60% of new revenues... GOP still said no http://bit.ly/URIIAX
