Liveblogging World War II: December 29, 1942
Liveblogging World War II: December 30, 1942

Robert Murphy's Bet That Inflation Was Just Around the Corner Has Gone Absolutely Horribly Wrong

FRED Graph  St Louis Fed 1

Terrifying to see:

Robert Murphy: October 2011: Update on My Inflation Bets: I know that a while ago I made two inflation bets… [with] David R. Henderson… [the] terms:

At any point between now and January 2013, if there is a year/year increase in seasonally adjusted CPI that is at least 10%, then [Henderson pays Murphy] at that time $500.

If we get to January 2013, and there has not been any 12-month stretch in which the above happened, then [Murphy pays Henderson] $500 at that time….

I made the above bets in December 2009. Things are obviously not progressing on the timetable I had thought…. If it weren’t for the crisis in Europe (which is pushing people to flock into dollars), I would still be fine [as of October 2011[!!!!]] with [the bet with Henderson], but it may turn into a nail biter…

The most terrifying thing of all is that being completely, comprehensively, unmistakably, fundamentally, fatally, totally wrong has not led Robert Murphy to rethink or modify any of his analytical positions or ideological beliefs by even one iota.

I mean, one would expect an announcement on his weblog like: "I have been totally wrong, about everything. I am closing down this weblog for five years to avoid misleading readers while I intellectually retool. You will find me sitting at the feet of Paul Krguman, chanting 'om mani padme hum' until I achieve enlightenment."

Not gonna happen...