Evidence on the Success of the Federal Reserve's Adoption of the Evans Rule
Matthew Yglesias writes:
January inflation expectations: The Evans Rule at work.: Here's the latest Cleveland Federal Reserve bank estimates of market inflation expectations…. [S]hort-term inflation expectations are way up. Market participants who are deciding right now what to do with money are pushed at the margin to avoid super-safe low-yield assets and to either make riskier (or less liquid) investments or to "invest" in the acquisition of durable goods. But over longer horizons, there's no shift whatsoever. People don't believe the Fed has lost control of the economy.
The higher short-term targets are consistent with longer-term expectations remaining "anchored" basically where the Fed wants them. Unconventional stimulus seems to work in shaping expectations, and doesn't have a downside in terms of longer-term destabilization.
