Jeff Frankel: Monetary Alchemy, Fiscal Science
Liveblogging World War II: January 27, 1943

Noted for January 27, 2013

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  • Nir Jaimovich and Henry Siu: The Trend is the Cycle: Job Polarization and Jobless Recoveries: "Polarization -- the loss of middle-skill jobs that concentrate on routine tasks -- happens in spurts and essentially only during recessions. Because these jobs don't return once recessions are over, the rebound in the labor market is slow, and the result is a sluggish or 'jobless' recovery…. 'The high- and low-skill occupations to which employment is polarizing either do not experience contractions, or if they do, rebound soon after the turning point in aggregate output.'… Fully 92 percent of the loss of these jobs occurs within 12 months of NBER-dated recessions…. This phenomenon is not accounted for simply by the cyclical behavior and secular decline of manufacturing in the United States. Similarly, it is not merely a result of the employment experience of workers with low educational attainment."

  • Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz: The Most Egalitarian of All Professions: Pharmacy and the Evolution of a Family-Friendly Occupation: "The transformation of the pharmacy profession over the past half century, from one dominated by independent pharmacies to an industry overwhelmingly controlled by national pharmacy chains and hospitals, has made the occupation more family-friendly and female-friendly, with higher earnings and a lower gender earnings gap than other fields. In the mid-1960s, only 8 percent of licensed pharmacists were female, and the industry was dominated by self-employed male pharmacists. About 40 percent of all pharmacists were self-employed, owning and working at independent pharmacies, and 70 percent of all pharmacists worked at independent pharmacies…. To measure how much the pharmacy profession has changed over the years, the authors use data from a number of sources…. The overall self-employment rate for pharmacists declined from 40 percent in the mid-1960s to less than 5 percent in 2010. Meanwhile, the demand for pharmacists has increased and the percentage of pharmacists working part-time has soared."

  • Britain faces triple-dip recession: "Britain’s economy contracted by a worse-than-expected 0.3 percent in the last three months of 2012, raising the possibility that it might fall back into recession for the third time since the global financial crisis. The Office for National Statistics said Friday that there was no growth in the nation’s big services industry while output of production industries fell by 1.8 percent, including a 1.5 percent drop in manufacturing."

  • Serena Ryder: For You

  • David Beckworth: Macro and Other Market Musings: Why We Need More Private Safe Assets: Risk Premiums, the Triffin Dilemma, and Cyclical Changes

  • Paul Krugman: Tim Geithner Is Wrong: "I was struck by what he says about the fiscal outlook: 'TG: There’s something strange about the debate today. The magnitude of additional deficit reduction – revenue increases or spending cuts – that you need to lock in in order to achieve fiscal sustainability is pretty modest.'… Where Geithner goes wrong is in suggesting that since what should be done over the next decade is fairly modest, we ought to be able to get bipartisan agreement. I don’t know if he really believes this or just feels that it’s what he has to say, but nobody who has actually been paying attention can take this seriously."