Noted for May 1, 2013
- Ryan Avent:** The euro crisis: Europe bleeds out: "IT IS a car crash of a data release…. The overall rate, at 12.1%? In the spring of 2010 unemployment rates in America and the euro zone were effectively the same at about 10%. There is now a gap of 4.5 percentage points. Total unemployment? In the first three years of the downturn America did far worse than the euro area, adding some 7.5m workers to the unemployment rolls to Europe's 4.7m. Since then total unemployment in the euro area has risen by another 3.2m while America reduced the ranks of the jobless by 3.5m. The euro area now has some 19.2m unemployed workers…. Greek joblessness topped 27% in January (the most recent month for which data there are available), while Spanish employment has risen to 26.7%…. And did you know that Dutch unemployment rose by 1.4 percentage points over the past year? German unemployment, of course, has held steady at 5.4% since last summer. It is the youth figures that are most remarkable, however: 59.1% of those under 25 are unemployed in Greece, 55.9% in Spain, 38.4% in Italy, 38.3% in Portugal, 26.5% in France—3.6m youths in all. There is blame to go around for this, but one has to reserve special criticism for the European Central Bank. The Federal Reserve's main policy rate has been effectively zero since late 2008; the ECB's has never fallen below the current 0.75% level. The Fed has undertaken major asset-purchase programmes in an effort to raise growth expectations, lower interest rates, and improve lending conditions; the ECB deployed a special lending programme to banks last year in order to prevent a systemic collapse, but its balance sheet has since been shrinking as those loans are repaid. The Fed has reacted to weakening inflation and inflation expectations and has linked policy changes to labour market indicators. The ECB has presided over a wrenching disinflation that has brought inflation well below target, and which is both a consequence of recession and itself an implement of macroeconomic pain. Europe's governments have behaved badly, but American fiscal policy has hardly been better…. [A]t the moment, the ECB is behaving as though the main economic failure in the 1930s was the world's pathetic inability to grit its teeth and endure the costs of tight money."
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