"Reconstructing Macroeconomics" Exchange: Mervyn King, Ben Bernanke, Olivier Blanchard, Axel Weber, Larry Summers
Angry Bear: Thursday Underrated Economics Weblog

Noted for April 4, 2013

  • John Scalzi: Iain M. Banks: "News today is that Iain Banks, who has written some of the best science fiction of the last quarter century, has terminal cancer and likely has less than a year to live…. I am something of a latecomer to his work — the first thing of his I read was his 2004 novel The Algebraist, which I enjoyed immensely. For all that, I am a fan of his work and of the universes he creates, and particularly of The Culture, which I think is one of the great imaginative achievements in science fiction. I have loved visiting it whenever Banks has opened a door to it. I am sad to hear the news that his remaining time on the planet is short. From his letter, however, I strongly suspect that his remaining time will also be of high quality, doing what he enjoys with the people he loves. And that, at least, is a good thing…. I want to thank him for being a wonderful writer and storyteller. I will continue to visit and wonder at his universes, and will be glad he left me ways to get to them. He is, and will remain, in my thoughts."

Robert Waldmann: contra Ed Kilgore | Ashok Rao: Why Local Factors Matter for Global Inequality | KitchenAid Pasta Roller Attachment for Stand Mixers | Matthew Yglesias: NRSC on Mary Landrieu: Perpetuating a vicious cycle of ObamaCare obstruction | Corey Robin (2004): Endgame: Conservatives after the Cold War | Noah Smith (2011): Noahpinion: In which Steven Landsburg utterly flips out |

  • Noah Smith: >Superior Mayan engineering: "[T]he 'average' Mexican is 2/3 richer than a decade ago. But is that the median, or the mean? Aren't all those gains being pocketed by the rich? Well, as it turns out, no…. It's not hard to see what's driving the growth: Mexico's exports have more than doubled since 2003. Most of those exports go to the U.S., but Mexico is diversifying…. Nor are those exports things like fruit and oil and minerals; Mexico is a booming manufacturer of cars, electronics, aircraft, and appliances…. For a long time, Mexico and other Latin American countries - and countries elsewhere in the Global South, like India - couldn't pull off the trick of getting rich. They tried import-substituting industrial policy… didn't work. They tried free trade and deregulation… didn't work. Some experimented with forms of quasi-socialism… didn't work…. South Korea followed a blueprint outlined by America, Germany, and Japan. That blueprint is called, for lack of a better term, 'manufacturing-export capitalism'… it's basically what Mexico is doing right now… policies designed to get a country to export as much manufacturing output as possible…. Real national wealth does not come from theft. It comes from reorganizing society into a more productive form. As South Korea did. As Japan did before that. As Mexico is hopefully doing right now. The nations of the Global South were late to the industrialization party, but I think they are finally here. Don't believe false narratives. If you think the apocalypse is coming, chances are you're just going to get laughed at by a Mayan engineer on a plane."

  • Eurointelligence: "The multiplier debate is settled as recession defies forecasts. The forecasts for the eurozone economy have been so consistently wrong that one wonders why international organisations are still publishing this garbage. The latest economic data out yesterday confirm that the eurozone economy remains stuck in a very deep and very long recession, with unemployment now at 12% - and now turn-around in sight. They confirm that the size of the fiscal multipliers is indeed very high when monetary policy has hit the zero-bound."

  • Event: Currency Wars: Economic Realities, Institutional Responses, and the G-20 Agenda:
    Video streaming by Ustream

  • Alan J. Auerbach and Yuriy Gorodnichenko: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy: "A key issue in current research and policy is the size of fiscal multipliers when the economy is in recession. Using a variety of methods and data sources, we provide three insights. First, using regime-switching models, we estimate effects of tax and spending policies that can vary over the business cycle; we find large differences in the size of fiscal multipliers in recessions and expansions with fiscal policy being considerably more effective in recessions than in expansions. Second, we estimate multipliers for more disaggregate spending variables which behave differently in relation to aggregate fiscal policy shocks, with military spending having the largest multiplier. Third, we show that controlling for predictable components of fiscal shocks tends to increase the size of the multipliers."

On April 3, 2013: