Ezra Klein: Ron Brownstein Thinks Rick Perry May Be About to Turn Texas Blue...
Ezra Klein and Evan Soltas:
Wonkbook: The terrible deal for states rejecting Medicaid: Curious why some hardcore conservative governors, including Jan Brewer of Arizona and Rick Scott of Florida, are fighting with their legislators to accept Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion?… The 14 states that have said they will opt out of the new Medicaid funds… will… get $8.4 billion less in federal funding, have to spend an extra $1 billion in uncompensated care, and end up with about 3.6 million fewer insured residents…. States rejecting the expansion will spend much more, get much, much less, and leave millions of their residents uninsured. That’s a lot of self-inflicted pain to make a political point….
The Affordable Care Act will implemented in states that reject Medicaid…. The campaign to tell people making between 133 and 400 percent of poverty that they can get some help buying insurance will catch quite a few people making less… those people will be told that they would get health insurance entirely for free but for an act of their governor and/or state legislature…. Federal law already says Americans making less than 133 percent of poverty are entitled to Medicaid coverage. All that needs to happen is for recalcitrant state governors and legislators to get out of the way. The publicity the benefit will get, the value it has to the target population, and the clear political path to getting that benefit all present an extraordinary organizing opportunity.
In Texas, for instance, 38 percent of the Hispanic population is uninsured. Will having that security so near, and then learning that it’s been blocked by their government, activate that voting bloc in the way Prop 187 did in California? It’s a possibility…. Ron Brownstein….
In 1994, California Republican Gov. Pete Wilson mobilized his base by promoting Proposition 187, a ballot initiative to deny services to illegal immigrants. He won reelection that year—and then lost the war as Hispanics stampeded from the GOP and helped turn the state lastingly Democratic. Texas Republicans wouldn’t be threatened as quickly, but they may someday judge their impending decision on expanding Medicaid as a similar turning point.
