- Rand Ghayad: Decomposition of Shifts of the Beveridge Curve: "The apparent outward shift of the Beveridge curve—the empirical relationship between job openings and unemployment—has received much attention among economists and policymakers in the recent years with many analyses pointing to extended unemployment benefits as a reason behind the shift. However, other explanations have also been proposed for this shift, including worsening structural unemployment. If the increased availability of unemployment insurance (UI) benefits to the long-term unemployed is responsible for the shift in the Beveridge curve, then allowing these benefits to expire should move many of the long-term unemployed back to work (or out of the labor force). Evidence from decomposing the job openings and unemployment relationship using data on unemployed persons by reason of unemployment shows that a significant portion of the outward shift in the Beveridge curve is concentrated among new entrants and unemployed re-entrants—those generally not eligible to collect regular or extended benefits. The decomposition reveals that at most half of the shift in the aggregate Beveridge curve is attributable to the disincentive effects of unemployment benefit programs."
Ruy Teixera and Alan Abramowitz: The “GOP Can Win With White Votes Alone” Strategy Is Doomed: "￼What starts out looking like a mysterious epidemic of 'missing' white voters becomes mostly a reflection of the simple fact that 2012 was a low turnout election…. [Trende] adds back in all the missing white voters to the 2012 electorate while leaving out all the missing minority voters. That is where he gets his claim that '[i]f these white voters had decided to vote, the racial breakdown of the electorate would have been 73.6 percent white, 12.5 percent black, 9.5 percent Hispanic and 2.4 percent Asian — almost identical to the 2008 numbers'. This really can’t be done. If you’re going to add one type of missing voter back in you should add them all back in; you can’t--or shouldn’t--assume a higher turnout election that would somehow only affect whites. And what happens if you play with the net up and add all the 'missing' voters back in?"
Greg Sargent: For the Hispanic media, it’s all about John Boehner: "'Like it or not, the Hispanic media perceives that approving or rejecting immigration reform is in the hands of John Boehner. When you listen to local radio stations and even national media, most of us are concentrated on John Boehner. We don’t even have a problem pronouncing his name.' That’s from Jorge Ramos, the widely influential anchor for Univision who has been described as the 'Walter Cronkite of Hispanic media', in an interview with me today. Ramos left little doubt that Boehner and fellow House Republicans will get absolutely crucified by the Hispanic media if Republicans fail to support comprehensive reform."
Richard Murnane and Frank Levy: Dancing with Robots: "We close with three guidelines…. First, it is important to begin closing the large income-based gaps in cognitive and socio-emotional skills that are present when children enter kindergarten as five-year olds…. Second, it is important to recognize the potential value of the Common Core State Standards (CCSS) in English language arts and mathematics. These parsimonious standards give greater weight to today’s foundational skills than the weight given by most state standards. Adoption of the CCSS by 45 states acknowledges the reality that proficiency in mathematics and English language arts should mean the same thing in Mississippi and in Maine…. Finally, while all American teenagers need to master foundational skills, different students will need different secondary school experiences to accomplish this objective. For some, academic curricula explicitly focused on preparation for post-secondary education will work best. For others, learning is better done through career and technical education (CTE) that provides more explicit links between foundational skills and groups of occupations…. A variety of well-designed secondary school options will be needed if America is to return to the position it held in the late 1960s as the member of the OECD with the highest high school graduation rate."
Gavin Kennedy: Adam Smith's Lost Legacy: Brad Delong versus Jeff Weintraub: "Coming from a family with strong links through his widowed mother, Smith narrowed his opening example to a daily experience exceedingly common to many of his readers (and to his young teenage students – for much of these chapters in WN came verbatim from his Lectures in Jurisprudence, 1762-3, and were lifted into his WN). Dogs abounded in their households. He was not writing an exhaustive treatise. They would instantly recognise his point and focus on the bargaining, which is wholly a human exchange behaviour, that arose out of earlier (and still practised) behaviours, such as reciprocity, alongside modern bargaining behaviours, using the conditional proposition, identified by Smith in WN (I.ii.9-10): “Give me that which I want, and you shall have this which you want”: “If-Then”, which is experienced in global and street markets today…. It was not an exhaustive account of the possibilities of co-operation that drove Smith’s account; it was a legitimate teaching point that starkly reveals the importance of exchange behaviour through bargaining, a wholly human behaviour."
Josh Marshall: Double Down On Whites as a Republican Road to Victory? Good Luck with That | Nate Silver: Senate Control in 2014 Increasingly Looks Like a Tossup | FearlessMedia.org | Robert Parry: The Marriage of Libertarians and Racists | Paul Ryan (2011): Echezeaux | Board of Directors & Board of Governors | Roosevelt Institute | Berkeley Resource Center for Online Education | Dot Physics | Jonathan Chait: Conservatives Hate All Legislation Now | Alan Jacobs: Do As the Technologists Say, Not As They Do | Zack Beauchamp: Why Libertarians Will Never Shake Their Neo-Confederate Ties | Edward Luce: Simpson and Bowles are wrong on US debt |