Antonio Fatas and Ilian Mihov: Recoveries: The missing third phase of the business cycle: Noted for August 18, 2013
Antonio Fatas and Ilian Mihov: Recoveries: The missing third phase of the business cycle:
Business cycles are clearly richer phenomena than a set of dates that define the turning points of an economy. But if we are going to use those dates as a reference to characterise the recession and expansion phase of a cycle, we believe that there is the need to analyse separately the earlier years of the expansion. This is when the economy regains what was lost during the recession. If recoveries where simply a mirror image of the recession phase, understanding the recession might give us enough information about the full consequences of a crisis. But our analysis of US cycles indicates that this is not the case and that the pattern of recession/recovery has changed over time with recent longer recoveries relative to the length of recessions.
