James Carville and Stan Greenberg: Engaging confidently on health care reform: Noted for August 14, 2013
James Carville and Stan Greenberg: Engaging confidently on health care reform:
Key findings:
Don’t repeal it, fix it – and don’t put insurance companies back in charge. Republicans are out of touch on repealing health care reform, apparently their top priority in Washington. That is true in the Republican battleground seats and more so in the Democratic. Virtually all polls say majority of voters are against repeal – and Democrats should hit the Republicans on this. The main reason? They don’t want to put the insurance companies back in control of your health care.
Voters do not want the insurance companies calling the shots on women’s health: they do not want to hand the reins back to insurance companies who can discriminate against women and those with pre-existing conditions. The new law makes health care more affordable for the middle class and can be improved to help small business – and voters respond.
Seniors now split on whom to trust on health care reform: take your hands off of Medicare. Seniors broke for Republicans in 2010 – 38 to 59 percent according to exit polls – when Republicans tried to make health care front and center. Now, seniors are divided between Republicans and Democrats on healthcare. That could be a fundamental break going into this election, which is very likely related to proposed Medicare cuts and the Ryan budget.
Republicans have strong attacks. To be sure, given voters’ uncertainty and confusion about the law, Republican attacks against Democrats in the health care debate are strong and get a serious hearing. In this survey, the idea of the IRS collecting penalties and fines associated with the law raise serious doubts for nearly two-thirds of voters. Worries about new taxes and higher deficits also raise significant doubts.
But Democratic attacks are equally strong. Democrats have strong complementary attacks on Republicans for putting insurance companies back in charge, enabling them to refuse coverage on pre-existing conditions and discriminate against women.
Tough health care attacks from both sides leave trust on health care reform where it started. In short, health care is no game-changer and Democrats do best when they engage on confident ground. After the attacks in this survey, Democrats come out with a slight edge (44 to 40 percent) in the most competitive Republican seats. And in the Democratic seats, voters cement their preference for the Democrats’ approach to health care reform, 46 to 39 percent.
