Kevin O'Rourke: The Irish Economy: Thailand without the baht:
“Thailand without the baht” is a useful way of thinking about the Irish economy’s boom, bust, and subsequent flat-lining…. The subsequent [post 1997-1998 crisis] rebound showed that these [East Asian] economies were still capable of delivering long run growth once their short-run macro problems had been resolved. Seen from the inside the Irish growth model seems pretty rickety, but respectable if unexciting growth rates of the sort you see in countries close to the technological frontier should be attainable in the future once our own short-run macro problems, and those of the Eurozone as a whole, have been resolved. Unfortunately this doesn’t seem to be on the horizon right now, which is why the “default and devalue” scenario has to be an option…. The problem with the “short run” is that it can continue for an awfully long time unless corrective action is taken.