Dan Kervick: Three Pillars of Democratic Empowerment: Noted
Noted to Aid Your Morning Procrastination for September 28, 2013

Joe Barsugli on ENSO and Climate Change: Noted

Joe Barsugli: The answer [to your question about the apparent increase in ENSO oscillations] is in the SPM:

Natural variations of the amplitude and spatial pattern of ENSO are large and thus confidence in any specific projected change in ENSO and related regional phenomena for the 21st century remains low. {5.4, 14.4}

Read it: http://www.climatechange2013.org/ Or rather wait until the Technical summary that will come out soon (a 100-page summary of the 2000 page full report).

So yes, it is more complicated than a simple thermodynamic analogy, and no we can't say that the recent apparent trend in La Nina is anything but apparent. On top of that there is no consensus on the way that ENSO might trend in the future. This is a difficult problem. The SPM does note that the hydrologic impacts of the La Nina/El Nino variability are likely to increase because of increased water vapor in the atmosphere.

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