Liveblogging World War II: September 23, 1943
Robert Engel: Lehman Was Not Alone--Measuring System Risk in the 2008 Crisis: Noted

Noted to Aid Your Lunchtime Procrastination for September 23, 2013

  1. "Plan actuaries are working in the dark…. Actuaries have similar training and utilize similar tools to make predictions, and they are pretty good at it when they have solid information on the relevant group. In the case of ACA exchanges, there are huge uncertainties about who is going to sign up and what their health history has been:" Joel Ario, Adam Block, and Ian Spatz: Premium Rate Variation In Exchanges Is An Eye Opener
  2. Too long; must read: Jonathan Chait: The Republican Plot to Kill Obamacare
  3. "The FOMC has put increased weight on stabilizing the labor market as, for example, prescribed by Vice Chair Janet Yellen’s 'balanced approach'…. But this… cannot explain why the “dots” are still so low in 2016 because the FOMC expects unemployment and inflation to be close to its longer-run goals at this point. We therefore explore today to what extent the 'optimal control' approach—-discussed by Yellen in a series of speeches in 2012—-might provide an explanation. Our update… points to the first hike in early 2016, even later than the dots": Jan Hatzius et al.: Why the Dots Are so Low: Goldman-Sachs Research
  4. "The Helium Program is currently scheduled to begin shutting down on October 1. This would reduce domestic supply by over 40 percent, forcing scientific and industrial users to adjust to sudden shortages and high prices, and idling an extremely valuable public resource": Joseph Kennedy: Managing the Helium Reserve
  5. "With so little pre-election polling and no exit polls in these three states, we cannot definitively establish how much their electorates were tilted toward evangelicals or any other constituency favorable to Santorum. But even if we assume that there was such a tilt, it alone was not sufficient to explain Santorum’s success": John Sides and Lynn Vavreck: The Republicans almost went insane: Santorum really could have beaten Romney
  6. "[The Corrections] needed negative 4089 C of sexism to return to conditions amenable to reading rather than being the heart of a the giant blue-white star which is poised, even now, to go supernova in the center of the swirling storm of Eta Carinae. Let us never speak of Jonathan Franzen again": Belle Waring: Drink The Haterade: Jonathan Franzen Edition

And:

Plus: Short:

Ann Marie Marciarille: Am I My Patient's Keeper? |

Plus: Long:

John Holbo: Here Comes Everybody: And She’s Karl Kraus!: We are bookish intellectuals here! Why then should we lack for a thread in which people can complain about Jonathan Franzen’s essay? |

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