James Hamilton: Why isn't inflation lower?: Noted
James Hamilton: Econbrowser: Why isn't inflation lower?:
Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2013)... suggest that the best explanation is a divergence of different measures of the "expected inflation" that serves as a shift factor for the Phillips Curve. Using either the last-year's average adjustment used in the above figures, or looking at expectations of inflation implied by the yields on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, one always finds recent inflation to have been higher than predicted by the historical Phillips Curve. But Coibion and Gorodnichenko note that these measures of expected inflation have recently diverged from the answers given by those households who are sampled in the University of Michigan's survey of consumers. Those respondents have been consistently saying that they expect a higher inflation rate than the value implied by TIPS or professional inflation forecasters.... If one uses the Michigan survey expected inflation numbers, the recent observations seem to track the historical expectations-adjusted Phillips Curve pretty well.
