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December 2013

Reuters' Counterparties: We Have a Better Press Corps Weblogging

Riding down 15th St., on the way to Caribou Coffee after the three hour WCEG launch event, we pass the Washington Post:

Problems with Obamacare test loyalty of Democrats...

the scrolling chyron reads.

  • Not: "...require delay of the ACA's minimum essential benefits insurance mandate".
  • Not: "...reveal that the ACA's insurance reforms were too much too fast to be successfully implemented".
  • Not: "...suggest that nationwide RomneyCare was a riskier move in insurance reform than the alternatives of single-payer, government catastrophic back-up, or a more open system with a public option".
  • Not even: "...lead to confused political maneuvering over whether and how much of the Obamacare insurance mandates will be rolled back or delayed.

But, instead: "...test loyalty of Democrats..."

Continue reading "Reuters' Counterparties: We Have a Better Press Corps Weblogging" »


Things to Read on the Afternoon of November 15, 2013

Things You Must Read:

  1. Gillian Tett: Treasury ownership marks wealth divide: "Who owns America’s... debt?... [F]oreigners... in 2008... breached 50%.... Back in the 1970s... the richest 1% of Americans 'only' held 17% of... federal bonds... in private sector hands... 42 percent in 2013..."
  2. Eduardo Porter: Rethinking the Rise of Inequality: "Workers with a bachelor’s degree still earn almost twice as much as high school graduates.... Still... growing skepticism... has fed into a deeper unease... [and] given new vigor to a critique... that challenges the idea that educational disparities are a main driver of economic inequality..."
  3. Sarah Kliff: Study: Medicaid, private insurance give same access to health care: "The GAO recently took a deep dive... [and] found... Medicaid beneficiaries tend to have nearly as good access to medical care as those on private coverage.... There is a relatively big gap in dental care..."

Things You Should Read:

  1. Mark Thoma: Economist's View: Pushing on a String: US Monetary Policy is Less Powerful During Recessions
  2. Ryan Avent: Blame Germany, for Frankfurt?: "German members of the ECB... led a six-man revolt against Thursday’s move to cut the... lending rate.... Germany does not want to give any ground... doesn't want to write the periphery cheques... doesn't want to backstop their finances... doesn't want to run bigger fiscal deficits... doesn't want to reduce its current-account surplus... doesn't want to accept even a little more inflation. One is tempted to conclude that it doesn't want to be a part of the euro area..."
  3. Olivier Coibion and Yuriy Gorodnichenko: Inflation expectations and the missing disinflation: "Advanced economies have not experienced the disinflation... historically... associated with high unemployment.... Using consumers’ (as opposed to forecasters’) inflation expectations restores the traditional Phillips curve.... Consumers... are more responsive to oil prices.... The increase in oil prices between 2009 and 2012 may in fact have prevented the onset of pernicious deflationary dynamics..."
  4. Matthew Yglesias: Goosing Stocks or Punishing Savers?: "The Hard Money Caucus can't quite decide what the problem... is. Bob Corker... complained that low interest rates and quantitative easing are artificially boosting the stock market and exacerbating inequality.... Pat Toomey... complained that low interest rates and quantitative easing are punishing savers. I don't think either of those is really true. But what I'm sure of is that you can't simultaneously boost the stock market and punish savers..."

Things You Should Be Aware of:

Paul Krugman (2008): Optimal Fiscal Policy in a Liquidity Trap | Arthur Okun: Equality and Efficiency: The Big Tradeoff |Òscar Jordà, Moritz Schularick, and Alan Taylor:* Private and public debt in crises: 1870 to now |

Annalee Newitz: Viral Journalism and the Valley of Ambiguity | Mark Thoma: Explainer: How does the Fed stimulate the economy? | Bruce Bartlett: How America’s Health System Stacks Up Against Other Developed Countries | Brad Plumer: The U.S. labor force is still shrinking. Here’s why |

The Long and Large Shadows Cast by Financial Crises: The Future of the European Periphery in the Mirror of the Asian Pacific Rim 1997-98

Attention Conservation Notice: 2600 words reiterating the points made by Reinhart and Tashiro (and also by others like Raghu Rajan) that the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 appears to have triggered a permanent downward trend break in economic growth on the Asian Pacific Rim.


November 3-5, 2013: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Asia Economic Policy Conference 2013

Brad DeLong: Comment on Carmen M. Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro, "Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation"

Let me second what Alan Taylor said. This, by Carmen Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro, is another high-quality paper. And it shares the four standard high-quality characteristics of Carmen Reinhart papers: ​ 1. It takes data that we have not looked at before or that we have not looked at in this way before. 2. It presents the data in a very interesting and thoughtful manner that makes us think very hard about important questions. 3. It does not focus on either the trend or the cycle exclusively, but looks hard at the interrelationships between them--interrelationships between the cycle and the trend that are traditionally ruled out, or at least not at the forefront of, our back-of-our-envelope first-cut. 4. It does not bow to current theoretical perceptions, but attempts to focus our attention on what the important and interesting features of the economy are.

Continue reading "The Long and Large Shadows Cast by Financial Crises: The Future of the European Periphery in the Mirror of the Asian Pacific Rim 1997-98" »


This Morning's Must-Watch: Larry Summers on the Danger of a Japan-Like Generation of Secular Stagnation Here in the North Atlantic

Miles Kimball sends us to this-morning's must-watch: Larry Summers on the danger that the U.S. and Europe are turning Japanese, i.e., about to repeat Japan's ongoing post-1991 episode of secular stagnation:

:

It is not over until it is over…. We may well need, in the years ahead, to think about how we manage an economy in which the zero nominal interest rate is a chronic and systemic inhibitor of economic activity, holding our economies back, below their potential...


Things to Read on the Evening of November 16, 2013

Must Reads:

  1. Larry Summers on the danger that the U.S. and Europe are turning Japanese, i.e., about to repeat Japan's ongoing post-1991 episode of secular stagnation: "It is not over until it is over…. We may well need, in the years ahead, to think about how we manage an economy in which the zero nominal interest rate is a chronic and systemic inhibitor of economic activity, holding our economies back, below their potential..."
  2. Andreas Mueller, Jesse Rothstein, and Till von Wachter: Unemployment Insurance and Disability Insurance in the Great Recession: "[Do] unemployed individuals who exhaust their Unemployment Insurance (UI) benefits use DI as a form of extended benefits[?] We exploit the haphazard pattern of UI benefit extensions in the Great Recession to identify the effect of UI exhaustion on DI application.... We find no indication that expiration of UI benefits causes DI applications... [and] rule out effects of meaningful magnitude..."
  3. Mike Konczal: Given the Myth of Ownership, is the Idea of Redistribution Coherent?: "Given that all property rights are a creation of the state, is it possible to refer to 'redistribution' without reifying a notion of 'everyday libertarianism'? I believe so. However, Matt Bruenig, over at our neighbors Demos, disagrees, and is slowly picking off liberal wonks on this topic. Given that I’m likely on the kill list, I might as well play offense..."

Should Reads:

  1. Marshall Fitz: Don’t Believe the Boobirds: "Another day, another 'Immigration Reform is Dead' pronouncement. Now that declaration is being coupled with the jaw-dropping claim that both parties share the blame for the putative demise. Neither assertion holds up to scrutiny..."
  2. Joe Gagnon: Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: evidence from the Global Financial Crisis: "There is little difference... with respect to the growth rate of GDP or the inflation rate. However... the change in the unemployment rate and the variability of growth, inflation, and unemployment... outcomes are always better for inflation targeters. The better performance of inflation targeters is even clearer when one controls for other factors that affect economic performance and when one defines the group of hard fixers more appropriately..."
  3. Robert Waldmann: Why does Fiscal Stimulus Work?: "Cochrane’s fantasy has so little connection with reality that it is hard to discuss... like expecting a reasoned critique of 2+2=5.... How does he manage such regular howlers? Well we have the ambiguity of “no spending multiplier”: here this ambiguously means that the... multiplier is 1 (there is no effect on private consumption); there it means that it is 0.... Argu[ing] that the multiplier... is 0... and then [that] a model or data which suggests that it is 1 is... proof that they were right..."
  4. John Quiggin: Wall Street Isn’t Worth It: "Can Wall Street, in its present form, be justified? That is, does the share of income flowing to corporations and professional workers in the financial sector reflect their marginal contribution to the total value of social output?... I argue that society as a whole would be better off if the financial sector were smaller, and received much smaller returns. A political strategy based on cutting the financial sector down to size... is a necessary precondition for a broader attempt to make the distribution of wealth and power more equal..."

Things You Should Be Aware of:

Susan Houseman et al.: Measuring Manufacturing: Problems of Interpretation and Biases in the U.S. Statistics | ThinkUp | Stephen Broadberry: Accounting for the great divergence |

Henry Aaron: Obamacare Policy Jiu-Jitsu | Barry Ritholtz: 2010 Reminder: QE = Currency Debasement and Inflation | James Besson: Technology isn't taking all of our jobs | Annie Lowrey: The Inequality of Climate Change | Jason Sattler: Early Medicaid Success Is A Victory Against Inequality | Lydia DiPillis: The real loser of the recession is rural America |

Things to Read on the Evening of November 17, 2013

Must Reads:

  1. Ezra Klein: One senator’s lonely war against climate change: "Every week, Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse heads to the floor of the Senate, sets up an easel and some poster board and delivers a speech. He works hard on these speeches. They’re deeply researched and beautifully crafted. He delivers them with passion and fervor--to a mostly empty room. His colleagues figure they have better things to do than listen. But 100 years from now, when our grandchildren look back and try to understand what we were doing while the world burned, these speeches may well be some of the most famed rhetoric of the age. The speeches are on climate change. They range in tone from morally outraged to deeply wonky..."
  2. Thoreau: Vocation of the Elites § Unqualified Offerings: "The ideas in Twilight of the Elites.... We have an ostensibly meritocratic elite class, and they are legitimized in part by their test scores and educations. We therefore tell ourselves that the solution to inequality is through the education system.  We’ll just give everybody a shot... if they’re good enough they’ll 'succeed', and this legitimizes everything. When people notice that inequality persists, the schools can be... scapegoats or saviors, playgrounds for pet projects or distractions from bigger problems. Much of what drives me crazy in education (or, for that matter, much of what might drive anybody else crazy in education) follows from those games..."
  3. Daniel Drezner: Why Foreign Affairs Policymakers are More Prejudiced than Economic Policymakers: "Michael Desch and Paul Avey... find that senior foreign affairs policymakers are extremely dubious about the utility of political science scholarship.... They note at the end of their paper that an outstanding question remains: 'why is it that policymakers are relatively tolerant of complex modeling and statistical work in Economics and survey research but not in other areas of political science and international relations?'..."

Should Reads:

  1. John dos Passos (1938): U.S.A.: The 42nd Parallel / 1919 / The Big Money "Wars and panics on the stock exchange, machine gun fire and arson, bankruptcies, war loans, starvation, lice, cholera and typhus: good growing weather for the House of Morgan."
  2. Matthew Yglesias: Katrina vs. Obamacare: Here's the difference: "1,833 people died during Hurricane Katrina..."
  3. John Cassidy: SIX REASONS THE AFFORDABLE CARE ACT ISN’T HURRICANE KATRINA: "In writing about the rollout of the A.C.A., I, too, have used the term 'disaster'.... But Hurricane Katrina? I can easily imagine why Republican politicians are making the comparison.... But does it really stand up? I don’t think so, and here are six reasons why: (1) Obama got out of Air Force One.... (2) Nobody’s been killed.... (3) This time, there is no 'Brownie'.... (4) The war in Iraq is over.... (5) Despite it all, Healthcare.gov appears to be fixable.... (6) The 'disaster' narrative doesn’t yet represent the final cut: Once the Bush Administration had failed the immediate test of responding to Hurricane Katrina, there wasn’t much it could do to change the story. The victims were dead..."

Things You Should Be Aware of:

David Saha: Revisiting the case for rational expectations | Joseph E. Gagnon: Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis |

How the Victorians Wired the World: The TV Show on Youtube | Mark J. Perry: The era of the textbook cartel and $300 textbooks is ending | Neil Irwin: There is only one way to end Europe’s economic woes. Germany needs to buy more stuff |

Monday-Morning Must Read: Paul Krugman on Larry Summers on the Danger of "Secular Stagnation": Monday Focus

Paul Krugman: A Permanent Slump?:

Spend any time around monetary officials and one word you’ll hear a lot is “normalization.” Most though not all such officials accept that now is no time to be tightfisted.... Still, the men in dark suits look forward eagerly to the day when they can go back to their usual job, snatching away the punch bowl whenever the party gets going.... But what if the world we’ve been living in for the past five years is the new normal... depression-like conditions are on track to persist, not for another year or two, but for decades? You might imagine that speculations along these lines are the province of a radical fringe. And they are indeed radical; but fringe, not so much.... The case for... a persistent state in which a depressed economy is the norm, with episodes of full employment few and far between was made forcefully recently... [by] none other than Larry Summers.... And if Mr. Summers is right, everything respectable people have been saying about economic policy is wrong, and will keep being wrong for a long time....

Mr. Summers went on to draw a remarkable moral: We have, he suggested, an economy whose normal condition is one of inadequate demand--of at least mild depression--and which only gets anywhere close to full employment when it is being buoyed by bubbles.

If our economy has a persistent tendency toward depression, we’re going to be living under the looking-glass rules of depression economics--in which virtue is vice and prudence is folly, in which attempts to save more (including attempts to reduce budget deficits) make everyone worse off--for a long time. I know that many people just hate this kind of talk. It offends their sense of rightness.... Economics is supposed to be about making hard choices (at other people’s expense, naturally).... But as Mr. Summers said, the crisis “is not over until it is over”--and economic reality is what it is. And what that reality appears to be right now is one in which depression rules will apply for a very long time.

Continue reading "Monday-Morning Must Read: Paul Krugman on Larry Summers on the Danger of "Secular Stagnation": Monday Focus" »


How Urgent Is the Need for a Higher Inflation Target?

This morning I find myself distracted by reports that Tom Sargent believes that a 2%/year inflation trend is a costly redistribution of wealth from creditors to debtors that it would not be foolish to solve by restoring the gold standard. My reaction is: "WTF?!" I'm 99% certain that this is a misinterpretation...

And I also find myself distracted by the near-viral status of the Larry Summers IMF video. I know that Larry Summers has been thinking about using a [neo-Wicksellian model] to think about fiscal (and monetary, and regulatory) policy in a (near-permanent) low interest-rate environment since before we finished our ["Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy"]. And now his thoughts are developed enough for him to have taken them on the road to the IMF on November 8, 2013, and the talk has gone near-viral in the circles in which I travel (but alas, there is no(t yet) a transcript)...

Here we have Ryan Avent weighing in, advocating a shift in the target inflation rate in the North Atlantic from 2%/year to 5%/year, and complaining that Larry Summers won't go there...

Continue reading "How Urgent Is the Need for a Higher Inflation Target?" »


Things to Read at Lunchtime on November 18, 2013

Must Reads:

  1. Annie Lowrey: Caught in a Revolving Door of Unemployment: "A five-year spell of unemployment has slowly scrubbed away nearly every vestige of Ms. Barrington-Ward’s middle-class life. She is a 53-year-old college graduate who worked steadily for three decades. She is now broke and homeless.... She was laid off from an administrative position at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in 2008; she had earned about $50,000 that year. With the recession spurring employers to dump hundreds of thousands of workers a month and the unemployment rate climbing to the double digits, she found that no matter the number of résumés she sent out... he could not find work. 'I’ve been turned down from McDonald’s because I was told I was too articulate', she says. 'I got denied a job scrubbing toilets because I didn’t speak Spanish and turned away from a laundromat because I was "too pretty". I’ve also been told point-blank to my face, "We don’t hire the unemployed". And the two times I got real interest from a prospective employer, the credit check ended it immediately.' For Ms. Barrington-Ward, joblessness itself has become a trap, an impediment to finding a job. Economists see it the same way, concerned that joblessness lasting more than six months is a major factor preventing people from getting rehired, with potentially grave consequences for tens of millions of Americans..."
  2. Paul Krugman: A Permanent Slump?: "The case for... a persistent state in which a depressed economy is the norm, with episodes of full employment few and far between was made forcefully recently... [by] none other than Larry Summers.... And if Mr. Summers is right, everything respectable people have been saying about economic policy is wrong, and will keep being wrong for a long time.... I know that many people just hate this kind of talk. It offends their sense of rightness.... Economics is supposed to be about making hard choices (at other people’s expense, naturally).... But... economic reality is what it is. And what that reality appears to be right now is one in which depression rules will apply for a very long time..."

Should Reads:

  1. Thoreau: Vocation of the Elites § Unqualified Offerings: "There’s another side to the problems.... I’m glad that some of our elite class passes through top educational institutions. I could think of worse ways to shape them. The real problem is that there are few routes to sit at the table.  By all means, have some Ivy Leaguers there.  But have those Ivy Leaguers in a wider range of endeavors than just the FIRE sector. Have people who came up through organized labor.  Have people who came up through professions and vocations, through entrepreneurial activity outside the FIRE sector, and through numerous other paths. (But keep the journalists out of the elite class. The last thing we want is journalists who like sitting at fancy dinners with their rich buddies. The proper place for a journalist is digging up dirt outside the banquet hall, while the rich are unaware what they’re up to.) This monoculture, this lack of variety in the paths to the top..."
  2. Jonathan Chait: Obama’s Latest Katrina Threatens Doom Once Again: "The Obamacare rollout debacle has officially reached its Katrina Phase.... The Obamacare rollout is merely Obama’s most recent Katrina, following in the wake of... the Gulf Oil spill, the 2009 swine-flu outbreak, the humanitarian disaster in Haiti, the General Motors bailout, Hurricane Sandy, Syria, and the now-forgotten springtime scandals--which, the New York Times reported in an equally portentous news analysis last May, 'have reinforced fears of an overreaching government while calling into question Mr. Obama’s ability to master his own presidency'. If every one of Obama’s Katrinas were an actual Katrina, America as we know it would long since have ceased to exist and we’d be living in a watery post-apocalyptic hellscape..."
  3. Michael Kimmel: America’s angriest white men: Up close with racism, rage and Southern supremacy:|"Many of the younger guys are veterans of the first Gulf War, a war that they came to believe was fought for no moral principles at all, but simply to make America’s oil supply safer and to protect Israel from possible Arab attack. They feel they’ve been used, pawns in a larger political game, serving their country honorably only to be spit out and stepped on when they returned home to slashed veteran benefits, bureaucratic indifference to post-traumatic stress disorder, and general social contempt for having fought in the war in the first place. They believed they were entitled to be hailed as heroes, as had earlier generations of American veterans, not to be scorned as outcasts..."
  4. Charlie Stross: CMAP: "Why do you use Microsoft Word?": "I sometimes fantasize about Markdown taking off everywhere. It's not as if Markdown editors are thin on the ground; it's almost become a de-facto standard on the iPad due to iOS's lack of a rich text library prior to iOS 7. Markdown is expressive enough to write a novel (novels are structurally very simple). It's so lightweight that you can learn the basics in half an hour and print a crib sheet on the side of a coffee mug. There are powerful Markdown editing tools with syntax colourizing and folding and other features... and you can write it using any plain text editor. If we could just get everyone to use it, there are powerful proofing tools out there—it's a plain text based markup language, so the entire panoply of programmer's tools are available. But it ain't gonna happen. Novelists are not only not IT people; they are on average quite old (it's rare to sell a first novel before you turn 30: most working novelists are middle-aged). They are emphatically not early adopters..."
  5. Paul Krugman: What To Do When You're Wrong: "Barry Ritholtz reminds us that we’ve just passed the third anniversary of the debasement-and-inflation letter--the one in which a who’s who of right-wing econopundits warned that quantitative easing would have dire consequences. As Ritholtz notes, they were utterly wrong. Also, rereading the letter now, you have to wonder what kind of economic model they had in mind.... You don’t just want to look at whether people have been wrong; you want to ask how they respond when events don’t go the way they predicted. After all, if you write about current affairs and you’re never wrong, you just aren’t sticking your neck out enough. Stuff happens, and sometimes it’s not the stuff you thought would happen. So what do you do then? Do you claim that you never said what you said? Do you lash out at your critics and play victim? Or do you try to figure out what you got wrong and why, and revise your thinking accordingly?.... So, have any of the signatories to that 2010 letter admitted being wrong and explained why they were wrong? I mean any of them. Not as far as I know. And at that point this becomes more than an intellectual issue. It becomes a test of character."

Things You Should Be Aware of:

J. Bradford DeLong and Lawrence H. Summers (1992): Macroeconomic Policy and Long-Run Growth | **Nick Hanauer and Eric Beinhocker: Capitalism Redefined | Michael Kimmel: America’s angriest white men: Up close with racism, rage and Southern supremacy | Ann Sinaiko et al.: Enrollment in Medicare Advantage Plans in Miami-Dade County: Evidence of Status Quo Bias? | Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Michael Weber: Are Sticky Prices Costly? |

Jay Rosen: Out of the press box and onto the field: I am joining up with the new venture in news that Pierre Omidyar, Glenn Greenwald, Laura Poitras and Jeremy Scahill are creating, along with Liliana Segura, Dan Froomkin, Eric Bates and others who are coming on board to give shape to this thing, which we are calling NewCo until we are ready to release the name | Bryce Covert: Democrats Push For Extending A Lifeline For The Long-Term Unemployed | Daniel McCarthy: Why the Tea Party Can’t Govern | Cosma Shalizi (2010): The Singularity in Our Past Light-Cone |

We Need a Less Ideological Language to Describe Politicians...: Tuesday Focus

Every time I see the extremely smart and capable Bob Reich, I feel guilty.

I was a small part of the Treasury team within the Clinton administration that shut down a lot of ideas he had as Secretary of Labor--ideas to spend a little bit of money and quite possibly significantly improve the job the American economy does at matching workers with skills with jobs that need those skills. We thought that it was a much higher priority to pursue a bipartisan deal--a "grand bargain"--to set the financing of America's social insurance system on a sound long-run basis, and if we could not get such a deal we would do it ourselves

Given that George W. Bush and his Republicans were going to gleefully smash much of our hard budget-balancing work over eight years on the floor in 2001-3--and given that the senior Republican policy barons like Alan Greenspan would only quietly whimper in private about how this was bad policy--it would have been better in retrospect to focus less on long-term fiscal stabilization as the road to equitable growth and to focus more on, well, on equitable growth as the road to equitable growth.

Continue reading "We Need a Less Ideological Language to Describe Politicians...: Tuesday Focus" »


Has Quantitative Easing on a $5 Trillion Global Scale Paid Noticeable Benefits? I Think So...

Richard Dobbs and Susan Lund write:

The [Big] Four central banks... have injected a $4.7 trillion tidal wave of liquidity....The consensus is that these actions have raised GDP by between 1 and 3 percent and prevented a catastrophic failure in the global financial system.... Our contribution to this on-going debate suggests that... the clearest impact from ultra-low interest rates appears to have come from enabling government expenditure, and possibly boosting housing construction. Non-financial companies... have been large beneficiaries of low interest rates, saving $710 billion on their debt service costs between 2007 and 2012. However, companies have not lowered the hurdle rates they use.... Credit [remains] tight for... many small companies in the United States and Europe....

Continue reading "Has Quantitative Easing on a $5 Trillion Global Scale Paid Noticeable Benefits? I Think So..." »


Over the Next Two Years ObamaCare Is Going to Succeed Where Local Politicians in Office Want It to Succeed, and Is Likely to Fail Where Local Politicians in Office Want It to Fail

This means a roughly $60 billion direct federal transfer away from Red States over the next two years, and roughly $200 billion in lower economic activity in Red States--call it a negative of 4%-point-years of GDP, and of 2%-point-years of excess Red State unemployment.

Interesting times...

And last weekend three Democratic governors--all of whom should be mentioned much more often by substance-oriented reporters as future presidential possibilities than the standard senators whom lazy reporters focus on--weighed in:

Continue reading "Over the Next Two Years ObamaCare Is Going to Succeed Where Local Politicians in Office Want It to Succeed, and Is Likely to Fail Where Local Politicians in Office Want It to Fail" »


As the Door Revolves Around Timothy Geithner...

I must say that I don't think Tim Geithner was thinking ahead last February...

New York Magazine: 43 Minutes With Tim Geithner:

Another fiction that has plagued Geithner is the idea that he is a creature of Wall Street, specifically that he worked for Goldman Sachs. He isn’t sure where it came from—probably just confusion with his predecessor, Hank Paulson, who was the former CEO—but “once it hardened, it was very hard to overcome.” Indeed, he has not really overcome it at all. I can write, right here, in all caps, TIM GEITHNER HAS NEVER WORKED ON WALL STREET, and still someone will comment on our website that he is a bankster who should just go back to Goldman Sachs. Geithner says it’s “extremely unlikely” he will take a job in the world of finance, but the idea that he is somehow, secretly, working hand in hand with that community persists, and every once in a while someone pulls out records of his phone calls and meetings with CEOs as evidence. Geithner is not really sure what to say about that. “I’m the secretary of the Treasury.” He laughs. “How am I supposed to run a financial rescue if I don’t take phone calls from people?”...

The right thing to say would have been not "extremely unlikely" but, rather, "not with any of the systemically-important financial institutions, or anything that has substantial regulatory business with the Treasury Department." As it is, the people at New York Magazine and elsewhere who defended him as someone who never had and probably wouldn't work on Wall Street look... rather foolish...

That said, my impression was that Warburg-Pincus was old-line private equity with real alpha.

Continue reading "As the Door Revolves Around Timothy Geithner..." »


MOOCs on the Road to Damascus: What Chance Do We Have to Reinvent Higher Education Better and Cheaper?

How to to take advantage of new educational technologies?

Max Chafkin writes about the problem with MOOCs:

Max Chafkin: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course:

Very few people seem to finish courses when they're not sitting in a lecture hall. Udacity employs state-of-the-art technology and sophisticated pedagogical strategies to keep their users engaged, peppering students with quizzes and gamifying their education.... But... only 7% of students... make it to the end....

Continue reading "MOOCs on the Road to Damascus: What Chance Do We Have to Reinvent Higher Education Better and Cheaper?" »


The Third of the Three Coverage-Expansion Arrows of ObamaCare: Making People Aware of Their Options

ObamaCare always was supposed to launch three arrows in its effort to increase health-insurance coverage:

  1. Getting individuals and small groups better options through the exchange-marketplace (and then making people take advantage of those options whether they want to or not),
  2. Expanding coverage by making more people eligible for Medicaid and by providing subsidies to make exchange-marketplace coverage affordable to those of the working poor and lower middle class who would not qualify for even expanded Medicaid.
  3. Expanding coverage by getting those currently eligible for Medicaid who had not signed up for it to do so.

Ezra Klein writes up a good catch here. Only I did not think that this third arrow was "unexpected"--I thought it was part of the design:

Ezra Klein: Obamacare is having one huge success nobody knows about:

People are, rightly, upset about all that's going wrong.... But something unexpected is going very, very right. The background here is that before the rollout of the Affordable Care Act there were a lot of people eligible for Medicaid who simply didn't know it... with some states as low as 36 percent [of eligible people signing up] and others as high as 81 percent. The publicity around the new health-care law has led a lot of those people to inquire about whether they're eligible for health insurance--and they're finding out that they are.... In the red states... 91,000 people have... learned... that they are already eligible.... Of the 70,000 people who've enrolled in Medicaid in Washington State, 30,000 were eligible before the new law took effect--they just didn't know it...

288 words


Should Public Education Be Free? Or, Perhaps, What Should the Phrase "Free Public Education" Mean?

The thoughtful, estimable, and underpaid Aaron Bady gets one mostly wrong, I think:

Aaron Bady: Public universities should be free:

This should not be a controversial assertion. This should be common sense. But Americans have forgotten what the "public" in "public education" actually means.... Where there once was a public mission to educate the republic's citizens, there is now the goal of satisfying the educational needs of the market, aided by PR departments that brand degrees as commodities and build consumer interest, always with an eye to the bottom line. And while public universities once sought to advance the industry of the state, as a whole, with an eye to the common good, shortfalls in public funding have led to universities treating their research capacity as a source of primary fund-raising, developing new technologies and products for the private sector, explicitly to raise the money they need to operate. Conflicts of interest are now commonplace....

Continue reading "Should Public Education Be Free? Or, Perhaps, What Should the Phrase "Free Public Education" Mean?" »


Things to Read at Dinnertime on November 19, 2013

WCEG: Things to Read at Dinnertime on November 19, 2013##

Must Reads:

  1. Simon Johnson: It’s Fed Versus Moody’s for ‘Most Wrong’ Crown: "Who was more wrong in the run-up to the financial crisis of 2008: the Federal Reserve or Moody’s Investors Service? This isn’t an academic question; both organizations are still hugely relevant to shaping the way we see our financial system and the risks it contains. And both are now apparently underestimating the dangers again. To be fair, the thinking at both places has shifted, but not anywhere close to enough. The reason for this is simple: The incentives that encouraged their misperceptions before 2008 remain in place today..."
  2. Joshua Angrist et al: Semiparametric Estimates of Monetary Policy Effects: String Theory Revisited: "House Committee on Banking and Currency, March 18, 1935: Goldsborough: 'You mean you cannot push a string...' Eccles: 'That is a good way to put it: one cannot push on a strong.... Beyond creating an easy-money situation through reduction of discount rates and through the creation of excess reserves, there is very little if anything the reserve organization can do toward bringing about recovery. I believe that in a condition of great business activity that is developing to a point of credit inflation, monetary action can very effectively curb undue market expansion...'"

Should-Reads:

  1. cingraham: Ideology and party unity in the House, 1857-2011
  2. Wolfgang Munchau: Why Europe needs to try unconventional policy: "Last week’s dreadful data for the eurozone tell us that a long period of low economic growth and excessively low inflation lies ahead.... What should the European Central Bank do now?... If Mario Draghi, the ECB president, wants to make a real difference, he should contemplate quantitative easing.... QE has the advantage that it is legally beyond reproach... a pure monetary policy operation... cannot be mistaken for an illegal monetisation of sovereign debt.... Would QE work? Once you hit the zero limit on interest rates, QE is the most effective policy instrument.... And if you are worried about the impact of QE on financial stability, you might want to consider the impact of a long depression..."
  3. Daniel Altman: Predicting the Economic Future Through Convergence: China: "So economists re-examined the theory of convergence... countries’ living standards could converge in the long term, but only if they had similar economic foundations... deep factors whose importance was easily perceptible yet hard to quantify.... There are still vast differences between China and these wealthier economies that are likely to hold China back.... Two factors... particularly important... are openness to trade and the ease of starting a business (Aghion and Howitt 2009). China has done much to open its markets since Mao’s death, but it still has a long way to go.... When it comes to opening a business, China ranks even further behind..."
  4. Paul Krugman: The New Keynesian Case for Fiscal Policy: "Much of the academic profession decided more than 30 years ago that... what we needed was an equilibrium model of the business cycle. By the time the utter failure of the equilibrium project became apparent, you had a whole generation of economists who knew that Keynesianism of any form was nonsense based on what they had heard somewhere, so they didn’t read any of the stuff... and were flabbergasted to learn that there was in fact an extensive New Keynesian literature.... So some props to John Cochrane for at least trying to catch up. Unfortunately, he’s still working from the baseline assumption that people like me (and Mike Woodford, whom he really should be reading) must be kind of stupid, and so he can’t be bothered to actually figure out how the models work. At least I think that’s what’s happening.... Cochrane’s latest seems to be driven by a confusion between the effect of fiscal expansion on GDP... and... on consumption.... I won’t try to figure out the roots of this failure of reading comprehension.... This isn’t hard--at least it shouldn’t be for anyone with a graduate training in economics. Just try actually reading what New Keynesians write."
  5. Joe Gagnon (2009): Low Interest Rates May Be Here To Stay: "One of the most striking features of today’s economy is that interest rates... are at 50-year lows.... 'Normal' interest rates are likely to be lower than most people expect.... Investment demand has declined in the advanced economies... slower population growth... the winding down of the productivity 'catch-up'... lower marginal tax rates and declining rates of inflation... the governments of many Asian economies have funneled unprecedented amounts of capital into advanced-country financial markets in an effort to hold their currencies down and maintain export-led growth... commodity exporters, especially oil exporters, saved a high fraction of their revenues.... What are the prospects going forward?... We need to craft a regulatory framework that enables our financial system to operate safely in an environment of low interest rates..."
  6. Mark Thoma: How Economists Can Tame Irrational Exuberance: "Is Shiller correct? Should economists drop the assumption of rational expectations, at least in some instances?... The rationality assumption is reasonable in some cases.... For monetary policy, where the Fed goes out of its way to make its policy rule known, and in financial markets where the participants study the markets as part of their jobs and there are considerable amounts of money on the line, perhaps those conditions are approximated. But does anyone understand what policy rule can be used to anticipate fiscal policy actions (who expected Congress to cut spending in a recession?), and does the typical household sufficiently understand how policy shocks affect the economy?"

Things You Should Be Aware of:

Jared Bernstein: Inequality's Roots: Beyond Technology | Max Chafkin: Udacity's Sebastian Thrun, Godfather Of Free Online Education, Changes Course | Joseph E. Gagnon: Stabilizing Properties of Flexible Exchange Rates: Evidence from the Global Financial Crisis | James Surowiecki: Valuing the Free Digital Economy | Paul Krugman: Bubbles, Regulation, and Secular Stagnation | Jay Inslee, Steve Beshear and Dannel P. Malloy: How we got Obamacare to work | Lincoln's Gettysburg Addresses |


Public Administration vs. Political Science

About one evening in three I spent with him as an adult--and after he had had his third Bombay Sapphire martini--my late grandfather Earl H. DeLong would start to rant about how the study of public policy as an academic discipline had gone way downhill over his lifetime as people who saw themselves as studying "public administration" were replaced by people who saw themselves as studying "political science". Oh, there were exceptions--Grandfather Earl had a lot of respect for Aaron Wildavsky and James Q. Wilson--but, he said, rather than building up the mass of case studies and analyses from which one might actually be able to generalize and begin to draw useful and durable lessons about public management, people with chairs in graduate schools of public policy increasingly wanted to build orrerys and explain how their policies would bring about utopia.

As he used to say: "everyone wants to fantasize about Rommel, and nobody wants to be a real quartermaster, even though real quartermasters won a lot more battles than real Rommels have".

But James Q. Wilson was an exception. And Buce has a very nice catch from his Bureaucracy::

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Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for December 30, 2013

Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog

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MOOCs: Hoisted from Comments

Fred M Beshears: The Three Required Tasks of New Berkeley Chancellor Nicholas Dirks:

My take on MOOCs is that they're closer to online textbooks than full courses. However, unlike printed textbooks, online textbooks can be seen as more than just supplements to the traditional course. In particular, online textbooks can perform some functions that have traditionally been provided by the instructor. So, MOOCs could be used as a substitute for commercial textbooks by brick-and-mortar schools; and, if this was as far as it went, you wouldn't see much (or any) resistance from teaching faculty.

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A View of Obamacare from Raleigh, NC: Live from **La Farine** The Roasterie LXIII: December 30, 2013

J. Peder Zane: Obamacare makes takers out of the middle class:

The cost of my Obamacare policy cannot be measured in dollars and cents but in dignity. It is transforming me from a contributing member of society into a welfare recipient; its corrosive system of subsidy incentives discourages me from working harder. My familiarity with the law has only bred contempt. Now that I see what’s in it, I don’t just hope but pray that it is overturned, replaced with reforms that actually improve the health care system.

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Jim Sleeper: David Brooks Explains More Than He Intended: Sunday Reading

Jim Sleeper: David Brooks Explains More Than He Intended:

Some Yale students who took David Brooks' faintly self-serving course on "Humility" last year are buzzing about his New York Times column today, which skewers a certain type of elite college student's ambition to become a "Thought Leader."

"The Thought Leader is sort of a highflying, good-doing yacht-to-yacht concept peddler," Brooks explains, using his best comic-sociology idiom. "Each year, he gets to speak at the Clinton Global Initiative, where successful people gather to express compassion for those not invited. Month after month, he gets to be a discussion facilitator at think tank dinners where guests talk about what it's like to live in poverty while the wait staff glides through the room thinking bitter thoughts."

Brooks quickly turns some bitter thoughts of his own toward recent college grads--like those he taught at Yale last year and in 2002--who are "networking" desperately to make it as writers but will end up like flies trapped in spider webs of assignments that may earn them some real money but leave them "incapable of thinking outside of consultantese."

But then, suddenly, Brooks seems to turn to writing about himself.

The tragedy of middle-aged fame is that the fullest glare of attention comes just when a person is most acutely aware of his own mediocrity. By his late 50s, the Thought Leader is a lion of his industry, but he is bruised by snarky comments from new versions of his formerly jerkish self. Of course, this is when he utters his cries for civility and good manners, which are really just pleas for mercy to spare his tender spots.

What makes the column still more revealing and sad is that, far from serving up an older but wiser man's humility, it recycles what Brooks has been saying quite often since even when he was younger and, one might have hoped, less cynical. Read the chapter on "The Intellectual Life" in his breakout book, Bobos in Paradise. It's all there, from youthful networking to end-of-the road emptiness.

Or consider the following excerpts from his columns of 2004 and 2005, about college-grad anxieties. Amid his endless efforts to ingratiate himself to bright undergraduates, Brooks often discloses a cankered, gnawing, neo-connish resentment as dark and deep as the brilliant humor he wields in order to insinuate it into our perceptions of social life. Now, though, this game seems to be circling disturbingly back to Brooks himself.

Brooks began his career looking worshipfully for something solid to believe in, something he tried to find in William F. Buckley and later thought he saw in George Bush and the WASP prep school and collegiate traditions that had shaped both Buckley and Bush and that Brooks had always envied from somewhere just outside the gates. (He attended the University of Chicago, a truly fine university, but never got over having missed out on joining the WASP elite at Yale whose graces he'd glimpsed at the Grace Church elementary school in Manhattan.)

Far more important to Brooks than George Bush himself was a kind of social and personal strength for which Brooks yearned so ardently that he'd projected it onto a whole class: His very first column for The New York Times -- "Bred for Power," September 13, 2003 -- pondered how the old prep schools had forged the Yale-burnished confidence of two of that year's emerging presidential candidates -- not only Bush but also his most prominent challenger at that point, "Howard Brush Dean III," as Brooks made a point of identifying him.

Far from lampooning Dean's privilege -- as he would John Kerry's a few months later, when Kerry had become the actual Democratic nominee -- Brooks credited Dean as well as Bush with an "amazing faith in their gut instincts" and "impregnable" self-esteem. This he attributed to their rigorous rites of passage in the wealthy, reigning Protestant Establishment of their youth.

They and their cohort had become "tough, loyal to each other, and ready to take command without self-doubt," according to a book on the subject that Brooks quoted. But even more revealingly, Brooks added, Bush and Dean "appear unplagued by the sensation, which destroyed Lyndon Johnson and Richard Nixon, that there is some group in society higher than themselves."

That sensation plagues and obsesses Brooks himself. Never mind that it fits Bush imperfectly and that Brooks claimed that it didn't apply at all to the prep-school and Yale-bred candidate who became Bush's Democratic opponent, John Kerry -- or to Ted Kennedy, whom Brooks called a "Chicken Little" for his opposition to the War in Iraq. The heart of Brooks' insight here lies in his mentioning Nixon and Johnson. That signals his struggles with his own inner Richard Nixon and his gnawing anxieties about class, ethnicity, and assimilation.

"The Protestant Establishment is dead now, and nobody wants it back," Brooks claims disingenuously at the end of that column, adding quickly that at least that establishment "did have a formula for producing leaders. Our culture, which is freer and fairer, does not."

He has left, us and himself, with an important question: What can we do if we lack an establishment that's at least cohesive enough to resent, as Nixon resented it?

The problem is that Brooks has been stuck trying to answer that question for almost as long as he has been writing. "I went around looking for well-bred WASPs who would defend WASPdom," he told the Atlantic in 2000, "but they've internalized their own oppression and they don't. I mean, you could make a case that the world of John McCloy and Dean Acheson was a better world than we have now. I half considered making that case. But as a Jewish kid from New York it's not really my place to defend the people who would keep people like me out."

"Not really?" Shortly before 9/11 and barely a year after saying that it wasn't his place to defend the old WASP establishment, Brooks, an editor at the conservative Weekly Standard, wrote "The Organization Kid," a long article for the Atlantic about Princeton that mourned the loss of the old Ivy establishment's character-building ways, foreshadowing his maiden Times column about Bush and Dean.

The article was a sensation in the Ivy colleges, and soon after 9/11, barely a year after praising the old establishment in it, Brooks, an editor at the conservative Weekly Standard, was invited to teach a course at Yale by Donald Kagan, John Gaddis, Charles Hill, and other conservatives who were working to restore Yale's old conduits to that very establishment and to toughen Yale students up for the Iraq War.

Yale offered the perfect place and occasion for Brooks to urge whatever remained of the old establishment to renew itself in its war-making glory under its own legatee, President George W. Bush, Yale Class of 1968. Kagan, Gaddis, and Hill were passionately committed to Bush's grand strategies; Brooks, in a column for the weekly Yale student paper The Herald of Nov. 8 2002, urged Yale students to support the impending war. He admonished campus critics of the war as follows:

...idealism seems in short supply these days, even at Yale. I've been amazed at how many people think we can retreat into the gated community of our affluent campuses and not take action to defeat tyranny abroad. There seems to be a pervasive micromania afoot: We have to think small because grand visions never work, and if we try to champion democracy in Iraq we will only screw it up. This micromania tips over into cynicism, so you hear pseudo-sophisticates say the interest in Iraqi regime change is all about oil -- a concept so detached from the realities of the world petroleum markets that it doesn't bear a minute's scrutiny.

"I don't expect that most people at Yale are going to support the efforts of President George W. Bush, DC '68, to change the Iraqi regime," Brooks concluded. "All I ask is that if there is a war, you rethink your position. Then the principled position will be: Now that we're here, let's do it right. Because at that point the people who truly want to champion democracy in Iraq, rather than just kill Saddam, will need all the help they can get."

So effective were Brooks, Kagan, Gaddis, Hill and their ilk in discrediting and defeating critics of the war like Howard Dean and John Kerry that they helped to stampede Americans into destroying Iraqi hopes and American interests in the Middle East in the grandest strategic foreign-policy blunder in our history. (Here's how it ended, for Iraqis, and for Kagan, Gaddis, and Hill.

During the 2004 presidential campaign, Brooks lampooned, hilariously, the hordes of liberal Thought Leaders who rushed to John Kerry's side like Athenian warriors lusting to make something triumphant out of what Brooks called the "melted marshmallow" at the candidate's core. His delight back then in filleting bi-coastal liberals leaves me wondering now what thoughts the "wait staff" must have as it glides through dinners at the Heritage Foundation and American Enterprise Institute, where people don't bother to talk about what it's like to live in poverty.

Brooks wonders about that, too, now, of course. During the 2008 campaign, he saw that American conservatives were doomed, if not indeed dangerous, because they couldn't reconcile their sincere yearning for ordered, even sacred republican liberty with their knee-jerk obeisance to every whim and riptide of the casino-like financing, consumer marketing juggernaut that's dissolving republican virtues and even sovereignty before their very eyes.

They couldn't keep blaming all this on liberals, feckless and hypocritical though liberal elites can certainly be. Brooks had begun his career by working for William F. Buckley, Jr., who wrote that conservatives "should stand athwart history, yelling 'Stop!'" But even Buckley realized toward the end of his life what most voters, too, had seen: Too much of what conservatives claim to want to stop is coming from themselves for them to displace the blame onto people like Kerry, whom Brooks now finds himself covering as Secretary of State, a man trained, after all, by that good old WASP establishment, not the flip-flopper with only sculpted marshmallow at his core whom Brooks gave us in 2004.

Brooks' fine-spun, Ivy-obsessed ressentiment (here's a quick explanation of that term) emerged again in 2005 his "Life Lessons From Watergate," a column prompted by the news that a long-time Washington bureaucrat, Mark Felt, had been the real "Deep Throat" in Watergate.

What should have prompted fresh reckonings with the American republic's triumph over Nixonian perversity at that time and of the public's continuing need for official truth-telling and reportorial vigilance prompted instead a snarky account by Brooks of what he thinks we should all resent about Ivy elitists who'd brought Nixon down in the Watergate scandal.

"The most interesting part of this Deep Throat business," Brooks began -- the dismissiveness of that phrase "Deep Throat business" already signaling that he'll dodge the profound importance of Watergate -- "is [the Washington Post reporter and recent Yale graduate] Bob Woodward's description... of the state he was in when he met Mark Felt. He had graduated from Yale,... but he had no idea what he wanted to do with his life."

Brooks tells us that Woodward was gripped by "starting-gate frenzy," which he characterized as the fate of all elite college grads, who must scramble disingenuously and sometimes brutally to ingratiate themselves with the right people, especially the more privileged of their classmates and alumni, to blunt the shock of their being "spit out into the vast, anarchic world of adulthood, surrounded by a teeming horde of scrambling peers."

Sound familiar? Today's column merely reprises this, for the umpteenth time. In 2005, Brooks continued,

Their elders tell them to take their time and explore, advice that is of absolutely no comfort. Failure seems but a step away. Loneliness hovers. They often feel stunted and restless (I haven't moved up in six months!), so they adopt a conversational mode -- ironic, self-deprecatory, post-pubescent fatalism -- that masks their anxiety. .... In college they were discussing Dostoyevsky; now they are trapped in copy-machine serfdom...

They find that people who used to be just friends are now competitors in the frantic scramble... Entering the world of the Higher Shamelessness, they begin networking like mad, cultivating the fine art of false modesty and calculated friendships,... weighing who will be crucial members of their cohort, engaging in the dangerous game of lateral kissing up, hunting for the spouse who will look handsomely supportive during some future confirmation hearing....

Here Brooks is close to his knowing resignation of today, describing the qualities his hero Edmund Burke would have dreaded in a protégé. In 2005, as in 2013, he tells young readers that there's no escape:

This is now a normal stage of life. And if Bob Woodward could get through something like it, perhaps they will, too. For that is the purpose of Watergate in today's culture. It isn't about Nixon and the cover-up anymore. It's ... about the two young men who found exciting and challenging jobs, who slew the dragon, who became rich and famous by doing good.... Woodward was nervous once, like you.

But Woodward is not a man whom admires. The column is deeply cynical, in a fine-spun way, even with its faux-upbeat, ironical ending. And the message being telegraphed to us from Brooks' inner Nixon is that since Woodward wasn't really as bold and high-souled in exposing the Watergate scandal as you have thought, we might as well forget about Nixon's faiblesses.

The same day that this Watergate column ran, Brooks' Times Washington bureau colleague Elisabeth Bumiller, like Woodward a Yale graduate, wrote an eerily similar put-down of Woodward masquerading as "News Analysis." Bumiller called Woodward's account of his first meetings with Felt "a parable about how the city really works. Aficionados ferreted it out instantly in the first paragraphs of Bob Woodward's tale...."

Almost as if she were determined to echo Brooks, Bumiller wrote that "Mr. Woodward, anxious and confused about his future, nonetheless displayed the kind of terrier instincts that would later serve him so well." Thus she joined Brooks in casting Woodward as a reporter who comforts the comfortable by following them around and transcribing their thoughts.

Bumiller's Woodward story ran under the apparently irreverent headline, "If They Gave Nobels for Networking...," and it told readers this:

"If I hadn't taken a course with Paul Wolfowitz decades ago, I probably wouldn't be in Washington," said I. Lewis Libby, Vice President Dick Cheney's chief of staff, who in 1973 was a student in Mr. Wolfowitz's political science class at Yale.

Admittedly, Wolfowitz, Libby, and Cheney weren't models for too many Yale undergraduates by 2005. But Woodward recruits Yale undergraduates as his research assistants every year. So why shouldn't young, would-be Thought Leaders at Yale have the benefit of Bumiller's and Brooks' competitive inside coaching, as well? Every morning, a stack of free New York Times editions appears in the vestibules of Yale's twelve residential-college dining halls, where students can read columns like these over breakfast.

They're eating out of Brooks' hand. He's writing to them about themselves, with a presumptive intimacy few columnists can muster, because he's writing about something that's arrested in him, for reasons I'll explain on another occasion. Lion of punditry though Brooks has certainly become, part of him is still too much with the kids who are reading his columns and lining up to take his courses.

Today's column announces, more honestly than the one about Woodward and perhaps even more honestly than Brooks intends, that those who set out to follow him will likely end up not as Platonic guardians of the American republic in the best Yale tradition but as what he, himself, remains: a fatalistic, "lateral-kissing up," consultanese-spouting pitch-man for our casino-financing, consumer-groping juggernaut.

Perhaps Brooks' forthcoming book will succeed where even his most brilliant successes as a Thought Leader have failed. Perhaps his new book will summon from the old colleges whose traditions still obsess him a new generation of Burkean, civic-republican leaders, more noble than "Thought Leaders" for whom "the fullest glare of attention comes just when a person is most acutely aware of his own mediocrity" and "is gravely concerned about the way everything is going to hell."


Eleanor Roosevelt Liveblogs World War II: December 29, 1943

MY DAY by Eleanor Roosevelt, December 29, 1943:

NEW YORK, Tuesday—Here I am in New York City again. I have already kept three appointments, though our train was somewhat late in arriving. Several people will be in to see me a little later in the afternoon. Last, but not least, I promised to take my two oldest grandchildren with their mother to see "Winged Victory" tonight. This will be a great thrill for them, for I doubt if they have seen many theatre performances. Certainly not the type of performance which I am given to understand this one is. Mr. Moss Hart, the author, has urged me to see this Air Force show ever since it opened, so I am glad we can go tonight.

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Saturday Must-Read: Edward Snowden Interview: The “Indoor Cat” and “Warheads on Foreheads”

Anne Laurie: Snowden Interview: The “Indoor Cat” & “Warheads on Foreheads”:

The Washington Post‘s Barton Gellman gifts us with a year-end Snowden wrap-up:

Six months after the first revelations appeared in The Washington Post and Britain’s Guardian newspaper, Snowden agreed to reflect at length on the roots and repercussions of his choice. He was relaxed and animated over two days of nearly unbroken conversation, fueled by burgers, pasta, ice cream and Russian pastry.

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Liveblogging World War II: December 28, 1943

Cliff Wendell: The Raid on Vicenza, Italy, December 28, 1943:

In this letter I will try to tell you about my experiences of that day and hope this will assist you in your account of the raid in your book.

As you probably remember, the weather was rather bad on that day and most of southern Italy was covered by a heavy layer of clouds. There was some question at briefing whether or not we'd take-off because of the bad weather, so we waited at the planes for the final word that the mission was on. I was flying #65 "RED WING'', the ship we flew overseas. This was to be my 25th combat mission and the rest of the crew had about the same number except Jack O'hara, the right waist gunner, who was flying his 50th that day and expected to complete his tour of duty. He was not a regular member of my crew, but was substituting for one of my men who was sick.

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Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for December 27, 2013

Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for December 27, 2013##

  1. Emily Oster s graph of the year Why is the U S falling behind in life expectancy Wonkblog: Emily Oster’s graph of the year: Why is the U.S. falling behind in life expectancy?: Emily Oster: "Amidst all the focus on health insurance, I think it’s crucial not to lose focus on the fact that--insurance or not--the United States is lagging behind in health status. This chart--from a broader report--demonstrates not only how low our life expectancy is relative to other developed countries, but also how far we have fallen even in the last 30 years. Why are we not realizing the same gains that countries with comparable incomes are?"

  2. Menzie Chinn: British Economic Triumphalism in Perspective: "Prime Minister Osborne has lauded the recent UK growth numbers as validation for the policy of austerity (recently relaxed, although he doesn't mention that). Paul Krugman refers to the the Three Stooges in explaining the deficiencies of this logic. And Richard Portes (head of CEPR) states: 'The current policies have been disastrous.... My view is pretty much the view I had a little over three years ago when I said the austerity program would be a disaster. And it has been. It has been responsible for the painfully slow recovery.' So who is right? Well, I think it useful to compare the US and the UK. The former embarked upon a policy of fiscal stimulus, and then retrenchment, but nothing compared to the retrenchment implemented in the latter. And in the US, per capita GDP growth was much more rapid than in the UK."

  3. George Zornick: The dark money in climate change: "Robert J. Brulle... [finds] that climate-denial money has largely been driven underground to dark-money sources. About 75 percent... untraceable, primarily via conservative foundations and shadowy tax-exempt groups that obscure their funding sources.... ExxonMobil and Koch Industries... have withdrawn their publicly traceable funding in recent years, and that withdrawal tracked closely with an increase in untraceable funding. You don’t have to be a genius to figure out what’s happening there. So why is industry money going underground?... Environmentalists have been able to achieve in the past decade or so is making climate denialism (1) seem increasingly kooky and unfounded, and (2) seem like the efforts of an industry that is protecting itself rather than one that wants an honest debate about the science.... The rush by ExxonMobil and other industry funders to obscure their funding of climate denialism could be a confirmation of those vulnerabilities.... If you force transparency into the system, corporate giving could at least moderate. The trends in climate denial funding suggest again that’s probably the case."

  4. Don Taylor: More on catastrophic plans: "In May 2012 I blogged that the ACA was going to allow quite high deductibles, even as Republicans criticized it for ending the practice, and I have generally felt that default catastrophic options hold the best chance for a future reform deal between the two political sides. Now we’ve come full circle and Republicans are criticizing high deductibles... lining up against narrow networks... cost control measures.... I will assume that at some point Republicans will realize they are running out of their own ideas that Democrats actually tried... so at some point [it] has to get back to the policy (right?)..."

  5. Donald Taylor (2012): Title VIII of Ryan’s Patients’ Choice Act: "I have written lots about what I consider to be the hypocrisy of Rep. Paul Ryan for criticizing the IPAB given what is proposed in title VIII of the Patients’ Choice Act (two expert boards) that he introduced along with co-sponors Devin Nunes in the House and Sens. Burr and Coburn on May 20, 2009. This post outlines the argument, and looks closely at selected portions of the text, this one elaborates on the topic given a repeal-of-IPAB-hearing held during the Summer of 2011, and this one follows up by discussing a response from Rep. Ryan’s spokesperson to my criticisms. Keep in mind that I praised the board contained in the Republican bill in this July 24 2009 newspaper column, and said that such a board based loosely on the base closing commission could represent a bipartisan way ahead to address costs! (silly me)..."

  6. Matthew Yglesias: Bing: How long will it last.: "Steve Ballmer's run as Microsoft CEO hasn't been great for Microsoft's shareholders, but it's been a boon to the world since his determination to pour money into an Online Services division that competes with Google on several fronts has given Mountain View a dose of competition. But Ballmer's been more-or-less fired, and Microsoft's board is supposed to appoint a new CEO next year. Will Ballmer's successor share his determination to go head to head with the king of search? If you were given the job, would you? I wouldn't. Online Services has been a huge financial disaster for Microsoft. But if it goes away, then suddenly Google becomes a real monopolist."

  7. Laura Meckler: Republicans Shy Away From Their Own Health Plan: "Some Republicans are now worried that a GOP proposal to begin taxing health-care benefits offered through employers... would cause market disruptions far more severe and expose the party to its own political peril. The proposed tax change was proposed by President George W. Bush in 2007 and by Sen. John McCain as presidential nominee in 2008. A similar GOP plan in the House has 117 co-sponsors.... 'There's an acknowledgment that massive overturning of the employer-sponsored system is something people just aren't ready for', said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a leading Republican economist and chief policy adviser to Mr. McCain's campaign..."

  8. Kenneth Thomas: Watch this Link: Will Heritage Scrub Its Obamacare History?: "Heritage is an organization that I've already lost most respect for, it being famous both for proposing Obamacare's main components and denying that it is responsible for the individual mandate.... My modest contribution was to note that the January 1989 research report Taranto found in the Heritage archives was actually noted on its cover, "Revised Edition." This pushes the original research back into 1988 at least and clearly refutes Stuart Butler's claim that the individual mandate was a response to Hillarycare. In fact, it was a response to the considerable political groundswell for single payer in the 1980s. The question is how far the deterioration of the Heritage research mandate will go.... [If] A National Health System for America, Revised Edition, can no longer be downloaded, we will know another big step in the hyper-politicization of Heritage has taken place. Should it happen, and you need a copy, email me and I will send you a copy of the pdf document on a 'fair use" basis'..."

  9. Avik Roy: The Tortuous History of Conservatives and the Individual Mandate: "Some conservatives... began endorsing an individual mandate.... In 1989, Stuart Butler of the Heritage Foundation proposed a plan he called Assuring Affordable Health Care for All Americans.” Stuart’s plan included a provision to 'mandate all households to obtain adequate insurance*.... As far as I have been able to find, Stuart’s 1989 brief is the first published proposal of an individual mandate in the context of private-sector-managed health systems.... 1990s conservatives weren’t concerned with the constitutional implications of allowing Congress to force people to buy a private product. 'I don’t remember that being raised at all', Mark Pauly told Ezra Klein last year.... Last October, prompted by a Wall Street Journal piece by James Taranto, I recounted how the Heritage Foundation was once the leading conservative advocate of the individual mandate..... Stuart has published an op-ed in USA Today, in which he describes as a 'myth' the idea that Heritage invented the mandate.... Stuart says that Heritage’s version of the individual mandate contained 'three critical features' that distinguish it from Obamacare’s mandate: (1) it required... catastrophic coverage.... (2) it was primarily financed 'through the carrot of a generous health credit or voucher…rather than by a stick'; (3) Heritage’s mandate 'was actually the loss of certain tax breaks… not a legal requirement'.... It’s worth pointing out that: (1) Heritage proposed the individual mandate in 1989, well before Bill and Hillary Clinton were on anyone’s political radar screen; (2) Obamacare and Romneycare both finance individual insurance purchases through generous vouJohn Cochrane's Third-Order Derpchers (via the exchanges); (3) Obamacare’s mandate is 'enforced', weakly, by withholding tax refunds..."

  10. Dan Drezner: The Year of Living Hegemonically: "As 2013 draws to a close, it is not hard to find epitaphs for American hegemony. Perhaps the most recent and most articulate was Walter Russell Mead's claim that the 'Central Powers'--China, Iran, and Russia--were acting like an "Axis of Weevils," burrowing in and hollowing out the U.S.-created order.... What he's saying matches what many Americans and non-Americans believe... more people think the United States is less powerful.... Meanwhile, America's rivals have had an industrious 2013.... Here's the thing, though: at the same time that commentators were bemoaning U.S. decline, the world was looking up.... 'Every day in every way, the world grows richer, safer and smarter'.... Those fearful of disorder have made two fundamental errors in judgment. First, they assume that China, Iran, and others want to rewrite the global rules of the game. Not so.... The bigger error, however, has come from analysts confusing a U.S. reluctance to use military force in the Middle East with a decline in American power and influence..."

Continue reading "Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for December 27, 2013" »


Yet More Right-Wing Grifters Gotta Grift: The View from La Farine LXII: December 27, 2013

Ann Coulter red-state@news.redstate.com: Thanks To Real "Fairness" You Can Save Your Retirement, Make Lots of Money, and Watch a Liberal's Head Explode--All at the Same Time:

Dear Fellow Red-Blooded American,

If you want to warm a liberal's heart, tell them you, as a conservative, support one of their most sacred doctrines--"fairness."

Then explain to them what fairness is not...

Fairness is NOT "redistributing" someone else's success...

Fairness is NOT changing the rules for those who are getting close to retirement...

And fairness is NOT doling out money to those who won't work.

No matter how they sugar-coat it, taking wealth from one who has earned it, to give it to another who hasn't, is not fair... it is stealing. (Oh, and speaking of wealth, keep reading and I'll introduce you to someone who can help you increase yours...)

What Real Fairness IS

Contrary to liberal mythology, fairness--REAL fairness--is succeeding through your own hard work and abilities under the same rules that apply to all. And that, as you know, is at the heart of a free-market economy.

Let me tell you about Dr. Mark Skousen, someone who understands these free-market principles perhaps better than anyone. He is one of the most influential free-market economists today.

Continue reading "Yet More Right-Wing Grifters Gotta Grift: The View from La Farine LXII: December 27, 2013" »


Liveblogging World War II: December 27, 1943

Elza‐Bair Guchinova: Deportation of the Kalmyks (1943–1956): Stigmatized Ethnicity:

On December 27, 1943, M. I. Kalinin signed Decree No. 115/144 of the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet of the USSR entitled “On the liquidation of the Kalmyk ASSR and the formation of the Astrakhan oblast within the composition of the USSR.” The decree formulates the basis of the punishment:

In the period of occupation of the territory of the Kalmyk ASSR by German-Fascist invaders, many Kalmyks betrayed their Motherland, joined military detachments organized by the Germans for fighting against the Red Army, handed over to the Germans honest Soviet citizens, seized and handed over to the Germans livestock evacuated from collective farms in the Rostov oblast and the Ukraine, and, after the expulsion of the invaders by the Red Army, organized bands and actively opposed organs of Soviet power in the restoration of the economy destroyed by the Germans, perpetrated bandit raids on collective farms and terrorized the surrounding population.

Continue reading "Liveblogging World War II: December 27, 1943" »


Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for December 26, 2013

  1. Angus Deaton: US inequality and the Pareto Criterion: "There is much to be said for equality of opportunity, and for not penalizing people for the success that comes from their own hard work. Yet... the United States is in fact not particularly good at actually delivering equal opportunities.... Look at the correlation between earnings of fathers and sons.... In the United States, the correlation is 0.5, which is the highest of the OECD countries and is exceeded only by those of China and a handful of countries where there appears to be the least equality of opportunity. Even if we believe that equality of opportunity is what we want, and don't care about inequality of outcomes, the two tend to go together, which suggests that inequality itself is a barrier to equal opportunity."

  2. Bob Forester: Daily Kos: I signed up for health insurance, told my GOP Congressman about it, and made the local news: "My healthcare saga began in 2002.... No longer did I have a group plan selected by an employer. I had to shop for my own coverage. At first it was easy.... But each year the dreaded renewal letter arrived, and the premiums increased by leaps and bounds.... But the big shock was yet to come... renewal letter... $756 instead of $463--a staggering 63% increase.... I applied for a very-high-deductible plan that would keep my monthly payment in the $400 range. Given that I was still insured, the insurance folks got a copy of the blood test, which they proceeded to search line by line.... Out of two pages of data, there was a single thyroid reading was outside of “normal” range (side note: there’s nothing wrong with my thyroid; it was simply their excuse to make me pay that outrageous premium). They’d found their so-called preexisting condition, and denied me access to the new plan with the lower premium. With the help of my doctor, who wrote a letter on my behalf, I appealed.... 'It wasn’t a government bureaucrat that came between me and my doctor; it was an insurance-company bureaucrat.'..."

  3. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee: The Second Machine Age: "Now comes the second machine age. Computers and one digital advances are doing for mental power... what the steam engine and its descendants did for muscle power... to blow past previous limitations.... Whether or not the new machine age bends the curve as dramatically as Watt's steam engine, it is a very big deal indeed..."

  4. Dread Pirate Mistermix: Preview of Coming Attractions: "Vermont and Massachusetts are getting ready to sue CGI Federal, the contractor that bungled their healthcare sites as well as healthcare.gov: 'Massachusetts officials are reviewing legal options against CGI Group.... So far, the state has paid $11 million of its $69 million contract with CGI. It will not pay a penny more until a functioning website has been delivered, said Jason Lefferts, spokesman for the Commonwealth Health Connector, the state’s insurance marketplace. “CGI has consistently underperformed, which is frustrating and a serious concern,” Lefferts said. “We are holding the vendor accountable for its underperformance and will continue to apply nonstop pressure to work to fix defects and improve performance.” Massachusetts has reverted to using an alternative software system and paper notifications for residents seeking new insurance.... In Vermont, state officials recently alerted CGI that the state is withholding payment of $5.1 million as compensation for the company’s failure to meet key deadlines. The state is also disputing more than $1 million in charges billed by CGI because of incomplete work that left its insurance website so far behind schedule that Vermonters could not buy coverage online, as promised under Obama’s health care law, until early December, two months after it opened."

  5. Buce: Underbelly: Reading: Me and the President: "Anyway, whatever the source, I'm startled at how little overlap between the two of us.  The main point of convergence would be Ezra Klein (inc.), who I, no mean snarker in my own right, think is a lot better than Salon's snarky dismissal.  The only other overlap is Josh Barro, whom Salon dismisses as the 'fantasy' of the 'Reasonable Republican'. I don't think that is why I read him; I would say rather that he is genuinely funny and often original--not st all like so many others on the Obama list whose main political identity appears to be 'soporific'.... I suppose if I had a current fave, it would be Bruce Bartlett, who uses his Facebook page as a convenient link to all his good stuff.  His taste in music leaves me cold.... But he is still the single most clear-headed analyst of tax policy anywhere--and since it all comes down to tax, what more do we need?..."

  6. Daron Acemoglu et al.: Democracy, Redistribution and Inequality: "In this paper we revisit the relationship between democracy, redistribution and inequality. We first explain the theoretical reasons why democracy is expected to increase redistribution and reduce inequality, and why this expectation may fail to be realized when democracy is captured by the richer segments of the population; when it caters to the preferences of the middle class; or when it opens up disequalizing opportunities to segments of the population previously excluded from such activities, thus exacerbating inequality among a large part of the population. We then survey the existing empirical literature, which is both voluminous and full of contradictory results. We provide new and systematic reduced-form evidence on the dynamic impact of democracy on various outcomes. Our findings indicate that there is a significant and robust effect of democracy on tax revenues as a fraction of GDP, but no robust impact on inequality. We also find that democracy is associated with an increase in secondary schooling and a more rapid structural transformation. Finally, we provide some evidence suggesting that inequality tends to increase after democratization when the economy has already undergone significant structural transformation, when land inequality is high, and when the gap between the middle class and the poor is small. All of these are broadly consistent with a view that is different from the traditional median voter model of democratic redistribution: democracy does not lead to a uniform decline in post-tax inequality, but can result in changes in fiscal redistribution and economic structure that have ambiguous effects on inequality."

  7. Jim Hinch: Where Are the People?: "The Crystal Cathedral in Orange County, California, is one of America’s largest and most celebrated ecclesiastical buildings. At 60,000 square feet and designed by architect Philip Johnson, it was until recently the sanctuary of Robert H. Schuller, once one of the country’s most prominent and influential Christian ministers. In September 1980, when he dedicated the cathedral... Schuller was at the height of his influence, preaching to a congregation of thousands in Orange County and reaching millions more worldwide via the Hour of Power, a weekly televised ministry program.... But 2013 marked the end of an era. In June, Schuller’s evangelical Christian ministry, founded almost 60 years ago amid the suburbs of postwar Southern California, conducted its last worship service.... Hounded by creditors (including some of those Hollywood-grade costume and livestock suppliers), the ministry had declared bankruptcy three years earlier and last year sold the cathedral for $58 million to Orange County’s Catholic diocese.... Just 10 years ago, evangelical Christianity appeared to be America’s dominant religious movement.... Evangelicalism is not only in gradual decline but today stands poised at the edge of a demographic and cultural cliff.... Young people’s most common complaint... is that churches are too focused on sexual issues and preoccupied with their own institutional development—in other words... 'Christianity no longer looks like Jesus'.

And:

Fafblog (2004): Richard Posner on the Moon | Gene Healy: Obama's 'I welcome the debate' on NSA spying is the real 'Lie of the Year' | Christopher Lee Reads “The Nightmare Before Christmas” | The Bleecker Bistro | K'naan: Censoring Myself For Success | Joe Weisenthal: People Shopped Online Like Crazy Over The Holidays | Sherry Glied | NYU Wagner | Richard Epstein (November 18, 2013): Obamacare’s Death Spiral | Sean Brodrick (2009): Gold, Guns and Spam | What If Post | Jared Bernstein: Guideposts on the Road Back to Factville, 2013 Edition | Economic Policy Institute: The 13 Most Important Charts of 2013 |


Things to Read on the Evening of December 26, 2013

Must-Reads:

  1. Angus Deaton: US inequality and the Pareto Criterion: "There is much to be said for equality of opportunity, and for not penalizing people for the success that comes from their own hard work. Yet... the United States is in fact not particularly good at actually delivering equal opportunities.... Look at the correlation between earnings of fathers and sons.... In the United States, the correlation is 0.5, which is the highest of the OECD countries and is exceeded only by those of China and a handful of countries where there appears to be the least equality of opportunity. Even if we believe that equality of opportunity is what we want, and don't care about inequality of outcomes, the two tend to go together, which suggests that inequality itself is a barrier to equal opportunity."

  2. Bob Forester: Daily Kos: I signed up for health insurance, told my GOP Congressman about it, and made the local news: "My healthcare saga began in 2002.... No longer did I have a group plan selected by an employer. I had to shop for my own coverage. At first it was easy.... But each year the dreaded renewal letter arrived, and the premiums increased by leaps and bounds.... But the big shock was yet to come... renewal letter... $756 instead of $463--a staggering 63% increase.... I applied for a very-high-deductible plan that would keep my monthly payment in the $400 range. Given that I was still insured, the insurance folks got a copy of the blood test, which they proceeded to search line by line.... Out of two pages of data, there was a single thyroid reading was outside of “normal” range (side note: there’s nothing wrong with my thyroid; it was simply their excuse to make me pay that outrageous premium). They’d found their so-called preexisting condition, and denied me access to the new plan with the lower premium. With the help of my doctor, who wrote a letter on my behalf, I appealed.... 'It wasn’t a government bureaucrat that came between me and my doctor; it was an insurance-company bureaucrat.'..."

  3. Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee: The Second Machine Age: "Now comes the second machine age. Computers and one digital advances are doing for mental power... what the steam engine and its descendants did for muscle power... to blow past previous limitations.... Whether or not the new machine age bends the curve as dramatically as Watt's steam engine, it is a very big deal indeed..."

Continue reading "Things to Read on the Evening of December 26, 2013" »


Morning Must-Read: Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee: The Second Machine Age

Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee: The Second Machine Age:

Now comes the second machine age. Computers and one digital advances are doing for mental power... what the steam engine and its descendants did for muscle power... to blow past previous limitations.... Whether or not the new machine age bends the curve as dramatically as Watt's steam engine, it is a very big deal indeed...


Morning Must-Read: Bob Forester: I signed up for health insurance, told my GOP Congressman about it...

Bob Forester: Daily Kos: I signed up for health insurance, told my GOP Congressman about it, and made the local news:

My healthcare saga began in 2002.... No longer did I have a group plan selected by an employer. I had to shop for my own coverage. At first it was easy.... But each year the dreaded renewal letter arrived, and the premiums increased by leaps and bounds.... But the big shock was yet to come... renewal letter... $756 instead of $463--a staggering 63% increase.... I applied for a very-high-deductible plan that would keep my monthly payment in the $400 range. Given that I was still insured, the insurance folks got a copy of the blood test, which they proceeded to search line by line.... Out of two pages of data, there was a single thyroid reading was outside of “normal” range (side note: there’s nothing wrong with my thyroid; it was simply their excuse to make me pay that outrageous premium). They’d found their so-called preexisting condition, and denied me access to the new plan with the lower premium. With the help of my doctor, who wrote a letter on my behalf, I appealed.... "It wasn’t a government bureaucrat that came between me and my doctor; it was an insurance-company bureaucrat...."

Continue reading "Morning Must-Read: Bob Forester: I signed up for health insurance, told my GOP Congressman about it..." »


Thursday Idiocy: Dan Savage Reads Sarah Palin so We Don't Have to...

Dan Savage: Good Grief and Great Tits:

Page 5: Here I learn something I didn't know and, if I were Sarah Palin, something I wouldn't want anyone to know. But Sarah hustles this fact to the front of the book because she sure as hell wants us to know it: Sarah surprised Todd with a "nice, needed, powerful gun" for Christmas in 2012. It was a "small act of civil disobedience," Palin writes, prompted by "the anti-gun chatter coming from Washington."

What was inspiring that anti-gun chatter in Washington in December of 2012? Oh, right: Twenty children and six teachers were shot dead in their classrooms by a deranged asshole with a "powerful gun." And before the grieving mothers and fathers of Newtown, Connecticut, could put their dead children in the ground, Sarah Palin ran out gun shopping. Buying Todd a gun in the wake of the massacre at Sandy Hook Elementary was "fun," Palin writes—and, again, an act of "civil disobedience." Because gun nuts are a persecuted minority.

This paragraph about gun shopping in December of 2012—one first grader at Sandy Hook was shot 11 times—ends with Palin bragging about her tits. I'm not kidding.

Okay, I have to put the book down. I'm five pages into Good Tidings and Great Joy and... Jesus F---ing Christ... I have got to put down this toxic little shitstain of a book. I'm going to go wash my eyes out with hydrogen peroxide. Be right back...

Continue reading "Thursday Idiocy: Dan Savage Reads Sarah Palin so We Don't Have to..." »


Liveblogging World War II: December 25, 1943

Stone & Stone: War Diary for 25 December 1943:

Arctic Ocean: Kriegsmarine battlecruiser Scharnhorst and escorting destroyers sortie to attack Allied convoy JW 55B

Russian Front: Soviet 1st Ukrainian Front continues to hammer German 4th Panzer Army

France: RAF 2nd Tactical Air Force Rodeo operation. German blockade runner Osorno damaged by wreckage and run aground

Continue reading "Liveblogging World War II: December 25, 1943" »


Bob Forester: I signed up for health insurance, told my GOP Congressman about it, and made the local news: The View from the Roasterie **La Farine** LXI: December 24, 2013

Bob Forester: Daily Kos: I signed up for health insurance, told my GOP Congressman about it, and made the local news:

My healthcare saga began in 2002.... No longer did I have a group plan selected by an employer. I had to shop for my own coverage. At first it was easy.... But each year the dreaded renewal letter arrived, and the premiums increased by leaps and bounds.... But the big shock was yet to come... renewal letter... $756 instead of $463--a staggering 63% increase.... I applied for a very-high-deductible plan that would keep my monthly payment in the $400 range. Given that I was still insured, the insurance folks got a copy of the blood test, which they proceeded to search line by line.... Out of two pages of data, there was a single thyroid reading was outside of “normal” range (side note: there’s nothing wrong with my thyroid; it was simply their excuse to make me pay that outrageous premium). They’d found their so-called preexisting condition, and denied me access to the new plan with the lower premium. With the help of my doctor, who wrote a letter on my behalf, I appealed.... "It wasn’t a government bureaucrat that came between me and my doctor; it was an insurance-company bureaucrat...."

Continue reading "Bob Forester: I signed up for health insurance, told my GOP Congressman about it, and made the local news: The View from the Roasterie **La Farine** LXI: December 24, 2013" »


Franklin Delano Roosevelt Liveblogs World War II: December 24, 1943

Franklin Delano Roosevelt: Fireside Chat 27: On the Tehran and Cairo Conferences (December 24, 1943):

My Friends--

I have recently (just) returned from extensive journeying in the region of the Mediterranean and as far as the borders of Russia. I have conferred with the leaders of Britain and Russia and China on military matters of the present --especially on plans for stepping-up our successful attack on our enemies as quickly as possible and from many different points of the compass.

Continue reading "Franklin Delano Roosevelt Liveblogs World War II: December 24, 1943" »


The Confident Man vs. Jean-Paul Sartre...

Implied Spaces Singularity Walter Jon Williams 9781597801515 Amazon com Books

Reread Walter Jon Williams's Implied Spaces on the plane yesterday. I had forgotten how good it was...

Now I find myself looking for someone who has written an essay about the Zelazny hero--the Competent Man whose problem is existential despair, and whose hero's journey is his reconnection with people, thus purpose.

The point is not saving the universe (though that happens too. The point is becoming who he is, or perhaps or rather who he once was.

But I cannot find such essay anywhere in the usual places.

Has anybody written it?


Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for December 23, 2013

Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog

Continue reading "Noted for Your Evening Procrastination for December 23, 2013" »


Liveblogging World War II: December 23, 1943

Galeazzo Ciano: The Ciano Diaries 1939-1943:

I should have liked to fix the responsibility both of men and governments with a greater wealth of detail, but unfortunately this was impossible, even though there might come to my mind, in these last hours, so many details that I should like to make known to those who tomorrow will analyze and interpret events.

Continue reading "Liveblogging World War II: December 23, 1943" »


Things to Read on the Evening of December 23, 2013

Must-Reads:

  1. Mike Konczal: It’s still too early for Congress to stop worrying about unemployment: "This is the month that unemployment officially fell off the agenda in Washington, D.C.... There are three major levers that policymakers can use to push for full employment... additional deficits... monetary stimulus... fix the broken housing market to allow for quicker deleveraging and to prevent destabilizing foreclosures. But policymakers are now easing up on all three levers... “taper”... emergency unemployment insurance is unlikely to be extended in 2014. But there are other, less-noticed ways.... One example: There's the looming expiration of the Mortgage Forgiveness Debt Relief Act.... Is this pullback justified? Some economists have suggested that broad-based unemployment is no longer the nation’s biggest problem.... But I find this story incomplete, and too narrow. For one: The economy isn’t just terrible for people who have been out of work for a long time. It’s still terrible even for people with jobs. Quit rates, for instance, are still much lower than they were on the eve of the Great Recession. The rate at which people are voluntarily quitting their jobs has only recovered approximately half of its value. It dropped a point from 2.2 percent, and it stands at only roughly 1.7 percent. Wage growth is also still anemic..."

  2. Paul Krugman: Bits and Barbarism: "This is a tale of three money pits... of monetary regress... the strange determination of many people to turn the clock back.... The first money pit is an actual pit--the Porgera open-pit gold mine in Papua New Guinea.... The mine has a terrible reputation.... But gold prices... are still three times what they were a decade ago, so dig they must. The second money pit is a lot stranger: the Bitcoin mine in Reykjanesbaer, Iceland. Bitcoin is a digital currency that has value because... well, it’s hard to say exactly why, but for the time being at least people are willing to buy it because they believe other people will be willing to buy it.... The third money pit is hypothetical. Back in 1936 the economist John Maynard Keynes argued that increased government spending was needed to restore full employment. But then, as now, there was strong political resistance to any such proposal. So Keynes whimsically suggested an alternative: have the government bury bottles full of cash in disused coal mines, and let the private sector spend its own money to dig the cash back up. It would be better, he agreed, to have the government build roads, ports and other useful things--but even perfectly useless spending would give the economy a much-needed boost. Clever stuff--but Keynes wasn’t finished. He went on to point out that the real-life activity of gold mining was a lot like his thought experiment..."

Continue reading "Things to Read on the Evening of December 23, 2013" »


Monday Noah Smith Smackdown: The First Vice of a Wannabe Academic Weblogging

Paul Krugman reminds me of Noah Smith in July 2012:

Noah Smith: Noahpinion: Inflation predictions are hard, especially about inflation:

Back in 2009 [John] Cochrane predicted inflation, it hasn't happened yet, and DeLong made fun of Cochrane for that fact. Cochrane... [responds] The inflation prediction was (and is) a statement about risks, not a time-specific forecast.... This is a very fair retort. Predictions are not necessarily forecasts...

Naughty, naughty Noah!

Continue reading "Monday Noah Smith Smackdown: The First Vice of a Wannabe Academic Weblogging" »


Could the New York Times Editorial Page Please Stop?!