Previous month:
May 2014
Next month:
July 2014

June 2014

Afternoon Must-Read: Yifan Cao and Adam Shapiro: Will Inflation Remain Low?

Federal Reserve Bank San Francisco Will Inflation Remain Low

Yifan Cao and Adam Shapiro:Will Inflation Remain Low?: "The well-known Phillips curve suggests that future inflation depends...

...on current and past inflation and a measure of economic slack or resource utilization. Using the unemployment gap to measure slack, a simple Phillips curve currently predicts that inflation will remain quite low through 2015. Two variations of the model, which impose a higher anchor for inflation expectations or focus only on a short-term unemployment gap, still predict that inflation will remain low, albeit higher than implied by the basic model.


Afternoon Must-Read: Unlearning Economics: Capital in Pikettys Capital

Unlearning Economics: Capital in Pikettys Capital: "Although Piketty relates his framework back to the neoclassical production function...

...it plays only a supporting role (he refers to Cobb-Douglas somewhat disparagingly as a 'simple story'), and his conception of 'capital', as defined above, is far more general than a literal interpretation of the production function might suggest.... Rognlie's argument takes the estimates of the elasticity as central.... Piketty only references elasticity estimates for support, and actually stakes most of his claim that diminishing returns will not become a problem on historical observation: 'On the basis of historical data, one can estimate an elasticity between 1.3 and 1.6. But not only is this estimate uncertain and imprecise. More than that, there is no reason why the technologies of the future should exhibit the same elasticity as those of the past. The only thing that appears to be relatively well established is that the tendency for the capital/income ratio β to rise.... To be sure, it is likely that the return on capital, r, will decrease as β increases. But on the basis of historical experience, the most likely outcome is that the volume effect will outweigh the price effect, which means that the accumulation effect will outweigh the decrease in the return on capital.' This is not to say that Rognlie's arguments are not worth considering, and he makes some good points... that the returns to new, IT-based technologies are not especially high... that, absent housing housing bubbles, capital's share of income has declined in many countries over the past few decades..."


Afternoon Must-Read: Ryan Avent: Monetary Policy: Dead Economies Blow No Bubbles

Ryan Avent: Monetary policy: Dead economies blow no bubbles: "The stopped clock that is the Bank for International Settlements...

...is showing the same face.... In 2011... the BIS argued that global growth needed to slow in order to reduce inflationary pressure. In 2012 it warned that central banks shouldn't do any more to boost growth lest they create financial instability and discourage structural reform.... In its latest annual report, it argues that what the world needs now is higher interest rates. One of these days the BIS may just turn out to be right. Not this year.... Low rates are not doing much to help the real economy, BIS says, but are contributing to another worrying credit boom.... Because it knows the result it wants (higher interest rates) it misreads the particular risks of the moment.... It was until very recently taken for granted that loose money meant policy that allows for excessively fast demand growth.... Rich economies currently suffer from none of those ailments. One could conclude then that policy is not too loose. Instead, the BIS, which is pretty sure that it is, finds a different measure of policy looseness with which to justify its call for higher rates: the financial cycle.... Raising rates now would almost certainly be counterproductive.... As markets priced in a perpetual slump (and lower inflation or deflation) long-term interest rates would edge even lower. Weak demand would also reduce the growth boost to structural forms, making them a harder sell, and would lead to still more deterioration in public balance sheets...


Morning Must-Read; Ralph Nader: October 20, 2000

Ralph Nader: October 20, 2000: "The only difference between Al Gore and George W. Bush...

...is the velocity with which their knees hit the floor when corporations knock.... George W. Bush we can dismiss with a summary comment: nothing more than a corporation disguised as a human being. There's no end to [Gore's] betrayal.... All I can see is this Pinocchio nose coming.... He exudes a lack of credibility.... If it were a choice between a provocateur and an 'anesthetizer', I'd rather have a provocateur. It would mobilize us...


Monday DeLong Smackdown Watch: Cosma Shalizi Has Serious Doubts About My Claim That We at Berkeley "Broadly, Manage to Accomplish This"

NewImageNo sooner do I manage to get my act together to deal with the shortage of high-quality DeLong Smackdowns by starting a close reading of David Graeber's Debt but Cosma Shalizi manages to show up with a high-quality DeLong smackdown. So the reading of the first text page of Graeber's chapter 11--which is, I think, thorough in chapter 11, if not chapter 7--and the first five historical errors he commits must wait until next week.

The eminent Cosma Shalizi writes:

Continue reading "Monday DeLong Smackdown Watch: Cosma Shalizi Has Serious Doubts About My Claim That We at Berkeley "Broadly, Manage to Accomplish This"" »


Monday DeLong Smackdown Watch: Cosma Shalizi Has Serious Doubts About How Well We in Berkeley Economics Are Doing at Our Broad Educational Mission...

Cosma Shalizi Has Serious Doubts About How Well We in Berkeley Economics Are Doing at Our Broad Educational Mission...: The eminent Cosma Shalizi writes:

Cosma Shalizi: "Respectfully, I just looked over the requirements for the Berkeley econ. major https://www.econ.berkeley.edu/undergrad/current/major-requirements, and it seems like it's entirely possible to get through it with nothing but the core econ courses, finance and econometrics. Of course the mere course titles don't give a lot of insight into their content--maybe UGBA 180 "Real Estate and Urban Land Economics" incorporates all the history and moral philosophy one could hope for (no sarcasm intended!)--there'd certainly be scope for it. But how well do you know what your students are actually being taught? How well do you know what they are learning?...

Touché...


Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for June 30, 2014

Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog

Plus:

And:

Continue reading "Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for June 30, 2014" »


Morning Must Read: James Surowiecki: Why Are the Super-Rich So Angry?

James Surowiecki: Why Are the Super-Rich So Angry?: "The past few years have been very good to Stephen Schwarzman...

...the chairman and C.E.O. of... Blackstone.... Schwarzman is now worth more than ten billion dollars. You wouldn’t think he’d have much to complain about. But, to hear him tell it, he’s beset by a meddlesome, tax-happy government and a whiny, envious populace. He recently grumbled that the U.S. middle class has taken to 'blaming wealthy people' for its problems. Previously, he has said that it might be good to raise income taxes on the poor so they had 'skin in the game', and that proposals to repeal the carried-interest tax loophole—from which he personally benefits—were akin to the German invasion of Poland....

That’s not how it’s always been. A century ago, industrial magnates played a central role in the Progressive movement, working with unions, supporting workmen’s compensation laws and laws against child labor, and often pushing for more government regulation... to co-opt public pressure.... Still, they materially improved the lives of ordinary workers.... If today’s corporate kvetchers are more concerned with the state of their egos than with the state of the nation, it’s in part because their own fortunes aren’t tied to those of the nation the way they once were.... Today, by contrast, corporate chieftains have little to fear, other than mildly higher taxes and the complaints of people who have read Thomas Piketty. Moguls complain about their feelings because that’s all anyone can really threaten.


James Surowiecki: Why Are the Super-Rich So Angry?

NewImageJames Surowiecki: Why Are the Super-Rich So Angry?: "The past few years have been very good to Stephen Schwarzman, the chairman and C.E.O. of... Blackstone.... Schwarzman is now worth more than ten billion dollars. You wouldn’t think he’d have much to complain about. But, to hear him tell it, he’s beset by a meddlesome, tax-happy government and a whiny, envious populace. He recently grumbled that the U.S. middle class has taken to 'blaming wealthy people' for its problems. Previously, he has said that it might be good to raise income taxes on the poor so they had 'skin in the game', and that proposals to repeal the carried-interest tax loophole—from which he personally benefits—were akin to the German invasion of Poland...

Schwarzman isn’t alone. In the past year, the venture capitalist Tom Perkins and Kenneth Langone, the co-founder of Home Depot, both compared populist attacks on the wealthy to the Nazis’ attacks on the Jews. All three eventually apologized, but the basic sentiment is surprisingly common. Although the Obama years have been boom times for America’s super-rich—recent work by the economists Emmanuel Saez and Thomas Piketty showed that ninety-five per cent of income gains in the first three years of the recovery went to the top one per cent—a lot of them believe that they’re a persecuted minority. As Mark Mizruchi, a sociologist at the University of Michigan and the author of a book called “The Fracturing of the American Corporate Elite,” told me, “These guys think, We’re the job creators, we keep the markets running, and yet the public doesn’t like us. How can that be?” Business leaders were upset at the criticism that followed the financial crisis and, for many of them, it’s an article of faith that people succeed or fail because that’s what they deserve. Schwarzman recently said that Americans “always like to blame somebody other than themselves for a failure.” If you believe that net worth is a reflection of merit, then any attempt to curb inequality looks unfair.

That’s not how it’s always been. A century ago, industrial magnates played a central role in the Progressive movement, working with unions, supporting workmen’s compensation laws and laws against child labor, and often pushing for more government regulation. This wasn’t altruism; as a classic analysis by the historian James Weinstein showed, the reforms were intended to co-opt public pressure and avert more radical measures. Still, they materially improved the lives of ordinary workers. And they sprang from a pragmatic belief that the robustness of capitalism as a whole depended on wide distribution of the fruits of the system.

Similar attitudes prevailed in the postwar era, as Mizruchi has documented. Corporate leaders formed an organization called the Committee for Economic Development, which played a central role in the forging of postwar consensus politics, accepting strong unions, bigger government, and the rise of the welfare state. “At the very top, corporate leaders were much more moderate and pragmatic, and, because that’s where national politics were, they were very influential,” Mizruchi said. Corporations supported policies that might have been costly in the short term in order to strengthen the system as a whole. The C.E.D. called for tax increases to pay for the Korean War and it supported some of L.B.J.’s Great Society. As Mizruchi put it, “They believed that in order to maintain their privileges, they had to insure that ordinary Americans were having their needs met.”

FROM THE ISSUEBUY AS A PRINTE-MAIL THIS That all changed beginning in the seventies, when the business community, wrestling with shrinking profits and tougher foreign competition, lurched to the right. Today, there are no centrist business organizations with any real political clout, and the only business lobbies that matter in Washington are those pushing an agenda of lower taxes and less regulation. Corporate profits and C.E.O. salaries have in recent years reached record levels, but there’s no sign of a return to the corporate statesmanship of the past (the occasional outlier like Warren Buffett notwithstanding). And that’s one big reason that it’s become impossible for Washington to get things done, even on issues of bipartisan interest.

If today’s corporate kvetchers are more concerned with the state of their egos than with the state of the nation, it’s in part because their own fortunes aren’t tied to those of the nation the way they once were. In the postwar years, American companies depended largely on American consumers. Globalization has changed that—foreign sales account for almost half the revenue of the S&P 500—as has the rise of financial services (where the most important clients are the wealthy and other corporations). The well-being of the American middle class just doesn’t matter as much to companies’ bottom lines. And there’s another change. Early in the past century, there was a true socialist movement in the United States, and in the postwar years the Soviet Union seemed to offer the possibility of a meaningful alternative to capitalism. Small wonder that the tycoons of those days were so eager to channel populist agitation into reform. Today, by contrast, corporate chieftains have little to fear, other than mildly higher taxes and the complaints of people who have read Thomas Piketty. Moguls complain about their feelings because that’s all anyone can really threaten.


What's Going On: Monday Focus for June 30, 2014

Attention Conservation:

  • 1/4 I find myself frustrated with usually-reliable Gerald Seib. Our political disruption problems today are driven by 3 factors: the
  • 2/4 Reagan-Thatcher bet on inequality in 1990, the Gingrich bet on obstructionism in 1993 (and doubling-down on it in 2009), and the Obama
  • 3/4 bet in late 2009 that the macroeconomic dog would go to sleep and should be let to lie as a strong recovery took hold. Our political
  • 4/4 disruption problems not driven by "globalization, alienation, populism". That framing doesn't tell us what needs to be and can be done.

Continue reading "What's Going On: Monday Focus for June 30, 2014" »


Charlie Jane Anders: Brad DeLong, Carol Queen and Farhad Manjoo at Writers With Drinks!: Live from La Farine CCVII: June 30, 2014

The make out room Google SearchCharlie Jane Anders: Brad DeLong, Carol Queen and Farhad Manjoo at Writers With Drinks!:

We bring you "An Evening of Oversharing About Money"!

When: Saturday, July 12, from 7:30 PM to 9:30 PM, doors open 6:30 PM
Who: J. Bradford DeLong, Carol Queen, Farhad Manjoo, Frances Lefkowitz and Charlie Jane Anders
How much: $5 to $20, all proceeds benefit the Center for Sex and Culture.
Where: The Make Out Room, 3225 22nd. St., San Francisco

Continue reading "Charlie Jane Anders: Brad DeLong, Carol Queen and Farhad Manjoo at Writers With Drinks!: Live from La Farine CCVII: June 30, 2014" »


Liveblogging World War II: June 30, 1944: The Aldwych V-1 Blast

NewImageThe Aldwych V-1 blast: June 30, 1944 | The Secret Fire:

The V-1 tore across southern England at over 350 miles per hour, faster than almost anything the British could put in the air against it, skipping past the barrage balloons’ steel cables that were intended to tear off its wings, outpacing all the efforts of the anti-aircraft gunners to traverse their guns fast enough to blow it out of the sky.

On Aldwych, at the eastern end of the Strand, dozens of people queuing outside the Post Office on the ground floor of Bush House looked skywards. Girls on their lunch break at the Air Ministry at Adastral House opposite, sunbathing on the roof, hurriedly covered up.

Continue reading "Liveblogging World War II: June 30, 1944: The Aldwych V-1 Blast" »


Afternoon Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Stagflation and Macroeconomics

Paul Krugman: Stagflation and Macroeconomics: "Simon [Wren-Lewis]... dismisses the stagflation of the 1970s...

...on the grounds that IS-LM macroeconomics quickly adapted to the new information.... (Compare this with new classical macro, which failed decisively in the 1980s, but never adjusted at all.) Nonetheless... stagflation did indeed play a role.... Stagflation had in effect been predicted by Friedman and Phelps... by taking a step in the direction of microfoundations.... What this did was to give immense prestige to the notion that you could use the assumption of rationality to make better predictions than you could using historical experience alone.... In the 80s, as I said, this was proved wrong, and the whole enterprise should have been reconsidered. But by then you already had a self-perpetuating clique that cared very little about evidence.... New classicals shrugged off the 80s, just as they are shrugging off the Great Recession...


Morning Must-Read: Lee Sandlin: Book Review: 'Robert A. Heinlein' by William H. Patterson Jr.

Lee Sandlin: Book Review: 'Robert A. Heinlein' by William H. Patterson Jr.: "Heinlein was the best sci-fi writer of all time and then mysteriously he became the worst:...

...Conviction... an intensely persuasive optimism... a radiantly hopeful vision of human prospects.... The novels for adults that followed were just as emotionally compelling.... 'Starship Troopers'... hurls the reader into its midst with such imaginative force that its rationale seems not only inevitable but somehow desirable. Many readers have been deeply moved... others have felt that they're being bullied by a brilliant piece of fascist propaganda... the most bitterly divisive book in the history of sci-fi.... 'The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress' is a visionary epic of a lunar colony breaking free... and establishing an anarchist-libertarian utopia.... 'Stranger in a Strange Land'. Heinlein... was both amused and appalled when the hippies took it up, enchanted by his luxuriantly sybaritic portrait of a Martian free-love commune....
 
The novels he wrote in the 1970s and 1980s wholly lack his old persuasiveness. Nothing in them is real, nothing is at stake and nobody takes anything seriously... adolescent ribaldry and reams of metafictional banter, for which Heinlein has approximately zero gift.... The overall effect is so low-energy and stupefying that it's hard to believe it isn't somehow deliberate—as though Heinlein is out to... make sure no reader is inspired to take any action whatever...


Morning Must-Read: Joe Stiglitz: The Myth of America’s Golden Age

Joe Stiglitz: The Myth of America’s Golden Age: "I hadn’t realized when I was growing up in Gary, Indiana...

...that I was living in the golden era.... Smokestacks poured poisons into the air. Periodic layoffs left many families living hand to mouth. Even as a kid, it seemed clear to me that the free market as we knew it was hardly a formula for sustaining a prosperous, happy and healthy society.... The standard economic texts... seemed to be unrelated to the reality I had witnessed growing up in Gary. They said that unemployment shouldn’t exist and that the market led to the best of all possible worlds.... I focused a lot of my work on why markets fail, and I devoted much of my Ph.D. thesis at MIT to understanding the causes of inequality.... Most disturbing is the realization that the American dream—the notion that we are living in the land of opportunity—is a myth.... During the period from World War II to 1980... the fortunes of the wealthy and the middle class rose together. But the evidence of the last third of a century suggests this period was an aberration.... a time of war-induced solidarity when the government kept the playing field level, and the GI Bill of Rights and subsequent civil rights advances meant that there was something to the American dream....
 
Geithner’s attempts to justify what the administration did only reinforce my belief that the system is rigged. If those who are in charge of making the critical decisions are so 'cognitively captured' by the 1 percent, by the bankers, that they see that the only alternative is to give those who caused the crisis hundreds of billions of dollars while leaving workers and homeowners in the lurch, the system is unfair.... Inequality commands a high price: a weaker economy, marked by lower growth and more instability. It is not very complicated. None of this is the outcome of inexorable economic forces, either; it’s the result of policies and politics—what we did and didn’t do...


Morning Must-Read: Annie Lowrey: What’s the Matter With Eastern Kentucky?

Annie Lowrey: What’s the Matter With Eastern Kentucky?: "Clay County... median household income there is barely above the poverty line...

...at $22,296, and is just over half the nationwide median.... The disability rate is... 11.7 percent. (Nationwide, that figure is 1.3 percent.) Life expectancy is six years shorter than average.... It’s coal country... in name only... just 54 people [are] employed in coal mining in Clay County, a precipitous drop from its coal-production peak in 1980. That year, about 2.5 million tons of coal were taken out of the ground in Clay; this year... 38,000.... What has happened in the smudge of the country between New Orleans and Pittsburgh--the Deep South and Appalachia--is in many ways as remarkable as what has happened in affluent cities...


Morning Must-Read: Nick Hanauer: The Pitchforks Are Coming… For Us Plutocrats

Nick Hanauer: The Pitchforks Are Coming… For Us Plutocrats: "The most ironic thing about rising inequality...

...is how completely unnecessary and self-defeating it is. If we do something about it, if we adjust our policies in the way that, say, Franklin D. Roosevelt did during the Great Depression—so that we help the 99 percent and preempt the revolutionaries and crazies, the ones with the pitchforks—that will be the best thing possible for us rich folks, too. It’s not just that we’ll escape with our lives; it’s that we’ll most certainly get even richer...


Morning Must-Read: Jacob Rose et al.: Will Disclosure of Friendship Ties Between Directors and CEOs Yield Perverse Effects?

Jacob Rose et al.: Will Disclosure of Friendship Ties Between Directors and CEOs Yield Perverse Effects?: "We conduct an experiment...

...involving 56 active and experienced corporate directors... and a second experiment with MBA students.... Friendship ties caused directors to be more willing to approve reductions to research and development (R&D) expenses... to meet the CEO’s minimum bonus target more often than when the directors and CEO were not friends. However, disclosing friendship ties resulted in even greater reductions in R&D expenses and higher CEO bonuses.... Friendship ties between the CEO and board members can impair the directors’ independence and objectivity, and... disclosure of the relationships can worsen this effect.


Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for June 29, 2014

Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog

Plus:

And:

Continue reading "Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for June 29, 2014" »


Liveblogging World War II: June 29, 1944: Eleanor Roosevelt

NewImageMY DAY by Eleanor Roosevelt, June 29, 1944:

NEW YORK, Wednesday—Yesterday afternoon, a fine woman named Mrs. Rusk joined Mrs. Morgenthau and myself in a broadcast which had as its objective the awakening of interest among women to do their full part in the War Bond Drive and in war work. Mrs. Rusk confided to me that the boy in the service for whom she was buying bonds out of her weekly earnings is her only child, now overseas. It must be terrible to know that the dearest person you have in the world is fighting in Normandy, and not to be able to get any word from him for weeks on end.

Continue reading "Liveblogging World War II: June 29, 1944: Eleanor Roosevelt" »


Adam Smith on How to Make the Working Class Happier and More Productive: Pay Them More

NewImageAdam Smith: Smith: Wealth of Nations, Book I, Chapter 8: "The liberal reward of labour...

...as it encourages the propagation, so it increases the industry of the common people.... A plentiful subsistence increases the bodily strength of the labourer, and the comfortable hope of bettering his condition, and of ending his days perhaps in ease and plenty, animates him to exert that strength to the utmost. Where wages are high, accordingly, we shall always find the workmen more active, diligent, and expeditious, than where they are low; in England, for example, than in Scotland; in the neighbourhood of great towns, than in remote country places. Some workmen, indeed, when they can earn in four days what will maintain them through the week, will be idle the other three. This, however, is by no means the case with the greater part.

Continue reading "Adam Smith on How to Make the Working Class Happier and More Productive: Pay Them More" »


Afternoon Must-Read: Paul Krugman: The Fall of Macroeconomics

Paul Krugman: Stagflation and the Fall of Macroeconomics: "Anti-Keynesian views...

...indeed real business cycle theory asserting that inadequate demand can never be a problem, retains a firm grip on much of the profession.... More broadly, the fundamental shift in intellectual criteria that Simon [Wren-Lewis] has written about several times--from 'does the model fit the facts?' to 'does it have rigorous foundations in [intertemporal] maximization?'--remains very much in force. You might have expected both the 2008 crisis and the years of poor performance that followed--years in which new classical types made massively wrong predictions, while people who remembered IS-LM did much better--would have changed this a lot. But remember that new classical macro fundamentally elevated microfoundations above empirical success; so orthodoxy largely brushed aside empirical failure.... In the long run, new classical macro may erode in the face of its uselessness. But in the long run — well, you know...


Alfred Marshall on Nineteenth-Century English Economics and Economists

NewImageAlfred Marshall (1885): Cambridge Inaugural Lecture: The Present Position of Economics "It is commonly said that those who set the tone of economic thought...

...in England in the earlier part of the century were theorists who neglected the study of fact, and that this was specially an English fault. Such a charge seems to be baseless. Most of them were practical man with a wide and direct personal knowledge of business affairs. They wrote economic histories that are in their way at least equal to anything that has been done since. They brought about the collection of statistics by public and private agencies and that admirable series of parliamentary inquiries, which have been a model for all other countries, and have inspired the modern German historic school with many of their best thoughts.

Continue reading "Alfred Marshall on Nineteenth-Century English Economics and Economists" »


Liveblogging World War I: June 28, 1914: The Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary

NewImageAssassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria - Wikipedia:

On 28 June 1914, Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, heir presumptive to the Austro-Hungarian throne, and his wife, Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg, were shot dead in Sarajevo, by Gavrilo Princip, one of a group of six assassins (five Serbs and one Bosnian Muslim), coordinated by Danilo Ilić. The political objective of the assassination was to break off Austria-Hungary's south-Slav provinces so they could be combined into a Greater Serbia or a Yugoslavia. The assassins' motives were consistent with the movement that later became known as Young Bosnia. Serbian military officers stood behind the attack. The assassination led directly to the First World War when Austria-Hungary subsequently issued an ultimatum against Serbia, which was partially rejected. Austria-Hungary then declared war, marking the outbreak of the war.

Continue reading "Liveblogging World War I: June 28, 1914: The Assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria-Hungary" »


The Four Big Valid Issues People Have with Thomas Piketty's Grand Argument: Over at Equitable Growth: Friday Focus for June 27, 2014

NewImageOver at Equitable Growth: I think there are four big valid issues with Thomas Piketty's grand argument:

  1. As the W/Ynet ratio rises the net rate of profit is likely to fall, and so it is highly unreasonable to imagine that the net savings rate out of income snet will not fall rapidly and substantially and so greatly attenuate any rise in W/Ynet. Thus substantially rising W/Y is not a problem that we should expect to see.

  2. Should the W/Ynet ratio rise substantially, the net rate of profit is likely to fall, and so the share of income earned from wealth will rise only slightly--and may not rise at all. This is not a problem: this is wealthholders providing workers with lots of capital services at a cut-rate price. Thus rising W/Y is likely to rather than lowers working-class incomes and is unlikely to worsen the income distribution, and so the prospect is not a problem.

  3. Even should the W/Ynet ratio rise substantially and even should the net rate of profit not fall, wealth is unlikely to become or remain highly concentrated. A high W/Y and a high r x W/Y is a big problem only if wealth becomes and remains highly concentrated, and that we are unlikely to see.

  4. Even should the W/Ynet ratio rise substantially and even should the net rate of profit not fall and even should wealth become and remain highly concentrated, plutocrats are highly likely to get into status games of spend-my-money-to-change-the-world, and so we are unlikely not have a world in which heirs and heiresses exercise undo influence over our priorities. Even should the distribution of wealth and of income become markedly more unequal, it is unlikely to distort society's choices and lead to a grossly unequal distribution of utility. READ MOAR:

Continue reading "The Four Big Valid Issues People Have with Thomas Piketty's Grand Argument: Over at Equitable Growth: Friday Focus for June 27, 2014" »


Afternoon Must-Read: Brink Lindsey: Why Living on the Dole is Bad for You

Brink Lindsey: Why Living on the Dole is Bad for You: "I worry that a U[niversal ]B[asic ]I[ncome] would further encourage mass idleness...

...a serious and worsening social blight among the less educated and less skilled, I favor instead social policies that promote engagement in the work force... through wage subsidies for low-skill work. Flanigan says this makes me a paternalist.... I don’t think the paternalism charge really gets us anywhere.... The purpose of both a UBI and wage subsidies is to help people.... In one sense, then, both policies are paternalistic.... Viewed from another angle, though, neither policy is properly considered paternalistic. Paternalism, after all, is about reducing people’s choices for their own good. But either a UBI or wage subsidies would expand the choices.... The great virtue of a UBI is its directness and simplicity... more helpful to the disadvantaged than the patchwork of frequently intrusive, infantilizing, bureaucratic, and wasteful means-tested programs.... If I could wave a magic wand and replace the policy status quo with a UBI, I would do so. That said, my reading of the available evidence convinces me that a social policy that channels benefits through work and thereby encourages paid employment has important advantages...


Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for June 27, 2014

Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog

Plus:

And:

Continue reading "Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for June 27, 2014" »


Morning Must-Read: Joseph Kane and Robert Puentes: The Enormous Wage Potential of Infrastructure Jobs

Joseph Kane and Robert Puentes: The Enormous Wage Potential of Infrastructure Jobs: "Cutting across multiple industries and geographies...

...infrastructure jobs offer needed stability. Since these jobs also typically require less formal education and pay competitive wages across a variety of occupations, they give workers from all backgrounds a chance to make a decent living in today’s unforgiving economy... pay 30 percent more to lower income workers—wage earners at the 10th and 25th percentile—relative to all jobs nationally.... Infrastructure occupations not only employ thousands of workers with a high school diploma or less, but they also frequently offer higher wages compared to many other jobs, particularly those involved in sales, maintenance, production, and other support activities. For example, paving equipment operators, recyclable material collectors, and industrial truck operators are among the largest infrastructure occupations that fall into this category, paying significantly more to workers without an advanced degree who might otherwise be employed as assemblers, counter attendants or cashiers. Plumbers, bus drivers and electrical power-line installers illustrate these patterns as well.... On-the-job training, in particular, is essential for these workers, many of who undertake apprenticeships and certifications to operate our infrastructure systems for decades...


Morning Must-Read: Jeanne Lafortune, José Tessada, and Ethan Lewis: People and Machines A Look at The Evolving Relationship Between Capital and Skill In Manufacturing 1850-1940

Owen Zidar sends us to Jeanne Lafortune, José Tessada, and Ethan Lewis: People and Machines A Look at The Evolving Relationship Between Capital and Skill In Manufacturing 1850-1940 Using Immigration Shocks: "[Did the] Second Industrial Revolution...

...change the way inputs were used in the manufacturing sector[?]... We estimate the impact of immigration-induced changes in skill mix in local areas in the United States between 1860 and 1940 on input ratios within manufacturing.... Production functions were strongly altered over the period under study: capital began our period as a q-substitute for high skill workers and a strong complement of low-skill workers. This changed around the turn of the twentieth century when capital became a complement of skilled workers and decreased its complementary with low-skilled workers.... Within-industry changes in production technique were the dominant manner in which areas adapted to immigration driven skill shocks.... We nevertheless fail to find significant impact of changes in skill mix on wages...

: <>


Liveblogging World War II: June 27, 1944: Cherbourg

NewImageRichard Atkinson: The Guns at Last Light:

In radio messages decrypted by Ultra, the [Cherbourg] garrison commanding general, a heel-clicker named Karl-Wilhelm von Schlieben, advised Rommel that his 21,000 defenders were burdened with two thousand wounded suffering from “bunker paralysis” and “greatly worn out.” Although Cherbourg still had a two-month supply of food, including five thousand cows that had been rustled into the city, a scheme to ferry eighty tons of ammunition aboard four U-boats fell apart.

Continue reading "Liveblogging World War II: June 27, 1944: Cherbourg" »


Morning Must-Read: Ross Douthat Squares the Circle on Climate Change

John Quiggin: Douthat squares the circle on climate change: "Matt Yglesias... 'For smart, up-and-coming conservatives...

...to mention climate change, they would have to... sound like rubes by siding with the conspiracy theorists, or... alienate the rubes by acknowledging the basic facts and the coming up with some other reason to favor inaction? The optimal choice is not to choose.' I made much the same point a year ago in response to Ramesh Ponnuru’s plaintive observation that 'To be a good reformer [in liberal eyes] a conservative has to agree that the vast bulk of conservatives are insane'.... Ross Douthat tries to respond to Yglesias. He ends up both confirming the point regarding climate change and illustrating the true nature of reform conservatism.

Since Douthat can’t refute Yglesias’ point about the craziness of the Republican base, he doesn’t try. Rather, he dismisses the point as 'silly' and moves straight to his own apologia for lining up with the crazies.... Supposedly, a relatively modest slowdown in economic growth means that it is now imperative to do nothing about climate change. The best way to understand Douthat’s piece is by reverse engineering his argument as a constrained minimization problem The objective is to minimize the craziness he needs to embrace, subject to the constraint that he must end up in line with the denialist conspiracy theorists who dominate the base. The best approach is to combine the most inflated estimates of the cost of mitigation, with the rosiest projections of the implications of doing nothing.... The Republican party is a coalition of crazies, racists and plutocrats. But there is a political requirement to talk about policy in a way that is not obviously crazy, racist or pro-rich. The task of conservative intellectuals is to square this circle...


Afternoon Must-Read: Greg Ip: The Inflation Panic

Greg Ip: The inflation panic: The spontaneous combustion theory of inflation: "I find the panic over inflation perplexing...

...Factual. Yes, core CPI inflation has rebounded to 2% from 1.6% in February.... What should we infer from this? Nothing.... Theoretical. If you have a forecast of higher inflation, it helps to have a theory of the inflation determination process.... Many critics think the prolonged period of low real rates and the large size of the Fed's balance sheet are in and of themselves inflationary, but this is divorced from any consideration for why real rates are negative and the Fed's balance sheet so large in the first place. Charlie Evans, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, calls this 'the spontaneous combustion theory of inflation... Households and businesses simply wake up one day and expect higher inflation is coming without any further improvement in economic fundamentals'.... Strategic.... Hoover Institution... scholars were deeply concerned.... Many cited the 1970s.... What these analyses ignore is the asymmetry of risks.... The Fed... knows how to get inflation back down.... By contrast, recent history shows how few effective tools central banks have for reversing inflation that falls too far...


Do Not Sell Short-Selling Short!: Over at Equitable Growth: Thursday Focus for June 26, 2014

Graph S P 500© FRED St Louis FedOver at Equitable Growth: In relatively short order after John Paulson and company figured out how to sell mortgage finance short--howto collect the money from selling MBS to addled investors without having to first finance the construction of five-bedroom houses with swimming pools in the desert between Los Angeles and Albuquerque--the housing bubble reached its peak.

It seems at least plausible that if Paulson and company had been in business in 2004 the bad bets of MBS buyers would have gone into the pockets of short sellers rather than being wasted financing the construction of houses people really do not want to live it. And it seems at least plausible that if the supply of MBS had not been limited by housing construction, the price peaks would have been lower, the losses when MBS prices returned to fundamentals would have been less, and that even with all of the portfolio and risk-management dysfunction in the too-big-to-fail money-center banks and all the regulatory dysfunction at the Federal Reserve the bubble collapse would not have taken down our too-big-to-fail money-center banks, and we would not be in our current mess. READ MOAR

Continue reading "Do Not Sell Short-Selling Short!: Over at Equitable Growth: Thursday Focus for June 26, 2014" »


Slower Growth in Red States That Did Not Expand Medicaid: Live from the Roasterie CCV: June 26, 2014

15 W 61st Terrace Google MapsWhether it is highway money, Defense Department money, agricultural subsidy money, or whatever, the governments of the states have long been eager and enthusiastic to do whatever they can to attract their share and more of what the federal government is offering to spend. Even where it is worthless for our general welfare--as much of Defense Department spending programs have been worthless for our general welfare--states have actively and aggressively competed for federal dollars.

Except for Medicaid money.

Continue reading "Slower Growth in Red States That Did Not Expand Medicaid: Live from the Roasterie CCV: June 26, 2014" »


Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for June 26, 2014

Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog

Plus:

And:

Continue reading "Noted for Your Morning Procrastination for June 26, 2014" »


Liveblogging World War II: June 26, 1944: Normandy

Contemporary Pathe Newsreel footage of the early days in Normandy that was now being shown in British cinemas:

World War II Today: Operation Epsom:

On 26th June Montgomery launched Operation Epsom, a major attack aimed at the town of Caen, the major obstacle to British expansion in the east of the Normandy battlefield. The attack was led by the 44th (Lowland) Infantry Brigade and the 46th (Highland) Infantry Brigade of the 15th (Scottish) Infantry Division with a number of famous regiments taking part including the Royal Scots, the Royal Scots Fusiliers, the Cameronians, the Seaforth Highlanders and the Gordon Highlanders.

Continue reading "Liveblogging World War II: June 26, 1944: Normandy" »


Thursday Idiocy: Chris McDaniel Says He Is a Victim of a Civil Conspiracy to Violate the LAW!

Chris McDaniel manages, in Ed Kilgore's words,to turn the GOP into "a debating society over the propriety of accepting minority votes..."

We haven’t conceded and we’re not going to concede right now. We’re going to investigate.... 35,000 Democrats crossed over.... Many... did vote in the Democratic primary just three weeks ago which makes it illegal. We... have a... law... that says you cannot participate in a primary unless you intend to support that candidate. And we know good and well that these 35,000 democrats have no intention to do that. They’ll be voting for Travis Childers in November. We know that. They know that. And so that makes their actions illegal.

So we’re going to be fighting this.

Continue reading "Thursday Idiocy: Chris McDaniel Says He Is a Victim of a Civil Conspiracy to Violate the LAW!" »


Afternoon Must-Read: Ryan Cooper: Hear That, Janet Yellen? The Economy Is Screaming for Help

Ryan Cooper: Hear that, Janet Yellen? The economy is screaming for help: "If we accept the increasingly plausible view that without this stimulus...

...the economy would immediately crash, this suggests that even for hawks who are deeply uncomfortable with unconventional stimulus, the quickest way to get the Fed to stop doing it is to stimulate so aggressively that interest rates can be gotten off the zero lower bound. As Ryan Avent argued two years ago:

One wants to scream, try overshooting for once. Try overshooting for once! Try it! Try pushing inflation up above 2 percent for a while and see if you can't generate enough growth to soak up some slack in the economy, thereby greatly reducing the risk that any little headwind that comes along knocks the economy back below stall speed. Try it! There is no way that a year of 3 percent inflation is bad enough to justify this pitiful hiccuping recovery. Try overshooting! [The Economist]

If the actual explanation for the Fed's behavior is a monomaniacal concern for inflation above all things, then we're basically screwed. But if hawkish Fed elites are actually prolonging their own agony, they might be convinced to change their mind. The worst quarter of GDP in five years is an opportune time to do it...


What Was 'Classical' Macroeconomics, Really? Can We Crowdsource an Answer?: Over at Equitable Growth: Wednesday Focus for June 25, 2014

SuperStockOver at Equitable Growth: I am on the hop from event to event right now, so I do not have time to give the keen-witted Greg a full and comprehensive answer to his question--nevertheless, the question does deserve a full, comprehensive, yet short answer. So may we crowdsource this?

On Wed, Jun 25, 2014 at 8:58 AM, Greg Ip wrote:

... 2) Separate but related, I am trying to describe the origins of stabilization policy. Keynes created a world in which such policy was needed; I assume it displaced a classical view of the business cycle which contained no role for government intervention. Can you point me to an article, by you or anyone else, that describes the classical view of the business cycle - and how Keynes displaced it?


2) You know, that is a remarkably hard question. There are really, three different 'classical' theories of the business cycle: READ MOAR

Continue reading "What Was 'Classical' Macroeconomics, Really? Can We Crowdsource an Answer?: Over at Equitable Growth: Wednesday Focus for June 25, 2014" »


Morning Must-Read: Matthew Yglesias: Health Care Spending vs Prices

The eminent Matthew Yglesias sends us to Jason Furman:

Health care spending vs prices Vox

and comments:

Matthew Yglesias: Health care: spending vs prices: "The prices paid for health care services and the quantity of health care services received...

...are different things. Outside the health care sector, we take it for granted that people getting more stuff is one thing (rising living standards) while rising prices for stuff is another (inflation).... This is super important. The only caveat is that in the health care sector there's a third wrinkle. More doctors visits is a lot better than pricier doctors visits, but what we really want out of the health care system is good health outcomes.


Morning Must-Read: Fabian Pfeffer, Sheldon Danziger, and Rovert Schoeni: >Wealth Levels, Wealth Inequality, and the Great Recession

Web stanford edu group scspi media working papers pfeffer danziger schoeni wealth levels pdfThe highly respected Bruce Bartlett sends us to a brand-new cracking o the recent PSID from Fabian Pfeffer, Sheldon Danziger, and Rovert Schoeni: Wealth Levels, Wealth Inequality, and the Great Recession: "By 2013, in spite of the Great Recession...

...wealth at the 90th and 95th percentiles were higher than in 2003... net worth at the median was about $32,000 lower.... The median of net wealth not held in real estate... declined by only $6,900 between 2007 and 2013... compared to a decline in median total net worth of about $42,500.... Through at least 2013 there are very few signs of significant recovery from the losses in wealth experienced by American families during the Great Recession...


Morning Must Read: Amartya Sen 32 Years Ago Had the Last Word on "Just Deserts" Theories of Distribution

The brilliant and very thoughtful Amartya Sen (1982): Just Deserts: "The personal production view is difficult to sustain in cases of interdependent production...

...i.e., in almost all the usual cases.... A common method of attribution is according to 'marginal product'.... This method of accounting is internally consistent only under some special assumptions, and the actual earning rates of resource owners will equal the corresponding marginal products only under some further special assumptions. But even when all these assumptions have been made... marginal product accounting, when consistent, is useful for deciding how to use additional resources... ut it does not “show” which resource has “produced” how much.... The alleged fact is, thus, a fiction, and while it might appear to be a convenient fiction, it is more convenient for some than for others....

The personal production view... confounds the marginal impact with total contribution, glosses over the issues of relative prices, and equates “being more productive” with “owning more productive resources”... is richer in powerful rhetoric than in substance.... An Indian barber or circus performer may not be producing any less than a British barber or circus performer--just the opposite if I am any judge--but will certainly earn a great deal less.... The smaller earnings... need not, in fact, reflect only failure of what [P.T.] Bauer calls [the Indians'] “aptitudes and motivations for economic achievement...


Hoisted from the Internet Archives: The Last Word on the "Just Deserts" Theory of Distribution

Advice from Marley s GhostI remember that I found this, by Amartya Sen, totally convincing when I first read it 32 years ago. And I still find it totally convincing today:

Amartya Sen: Just Deserts: "This book... a collection of [P.T.] Bauer’s essays...

...gives an excellent account of his main theses on development policy and international relations. It also presents his approach to economic equality and inequality in general, and places his discussions of development against the background of some of the broadest issues of political economy.... I shall argue that Bauer’s approach—in spite of its power and appeal—is fundamentally flawed, and that his analysis cannot bear the weight of the conclusions that he rests on it.

Continue reading "Hoisted from the Internet Archives: The Last Word on the "Just Deserts" Theory of Distribution" »


Electricity!: Live from La Farine CCIV: June 25, 2014

Twitter kjhealy The British fear electricityTwitter / kjhealy: @dsquareddigest @EpicureanDeal ...:

The British fear electricity, and guard against it using giant red switches and a plug the size of the USS Missouri. http:://pic.twitter.com/EFWpOEF1Ra

Paweł Morski ‏@Pawelmorski: @kjhealy @delong if our kettles took an hour to boil, I wouldn't mention other people's electricity.

Ryan Avent ‏@ryanavent: @Pawelmorski @kjhealy @delong And yet the electric dryers here can run for 12 hours straight without managing to dry anything...

Paweł Morski ‏@Pawelmorski: @ryanavent @kjhealy @delong buy a washing line like normal people

Continue reading "Electricity!: Live from La Farine CCIV: June 25, 2014" »


Liveblogging World War I: June 25, 2014: Edwardian Promenade

Evangeline Holland: Society: Edwardian Promenade: "The London Season remained in full swing...

...Like now, society had just attended Ascot Week, the “most fashionable race-meeting in the world,” as The Sketch duly noted in its weekly issue.... The cover of this issue featured a cheeky illustration about The Midnight Cocktail made special for the Midnight Ball held at the Savoy on June 25 to benefit the National Institute for the Blind: 1/3 French Vermouth, 1/3 Italian Vermouth, 1/3 Gin, add a few drops of Orange juice and one spot of Absinthe.

Here are some strange fashions on display at the races!

Continue reading "Liveblogging World War I: June 25, 2014: Edwardian Promenade" »


Noted for Your Nighttime Procrastination for June 24, 2014

Over at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog

Plus:

And:

Continue reading "Noted for Your Nighttime Procrastination for June 24, 2014" »