Evening Must-Read: Paul Krugman: Circles of Influence
Morning Must-Read: 2014 Real GDP Growth Forecast Rises from 1.7% to 2.2%

Over at Equitable Growth: Well, a Nice to See Consensus on Fiscal Stimulus...

Over at Equitable Growth: Poll Results | IGM Forum:

IGM Economic Experts Panel IGM Forum

The odd person out is Alberto Alesina. READ MOAR

The interesting thing is that two years earlier, Alberto Alesina agreed that "because of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the U.S. unemployment rate was lower at the end of 2010 than it would have been without the stimulus bill."

I do wonder what pieces of evidence could possibly have made him more pessimistic about the effects of the ARRA on unemployment over the past 30 months. What do people think?

Back in February 2012, it was Caroline Hoxby who strongly disagreed with the statement that the ARRA had reduced the unemployment rate; Ed Lazear who disagreed; and Ken Judd who was uncertain. This time Hoxby does not answer, Lazear is off the panel, and Judd agrees that the ARRA lowered unemployment.