Elementary Philosophy of Probability and the War on Nate Silver: The (Not Very) Honest Broker for the Week of August 2, 2014
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Lunchtime Must-Read: All Those US Indicators This Week

Cardiff Garcia: All those US indicators: what did we learn this week?: "We received further confirmation...

...that the first quarter slump really was just a temporary, weather-stricken pause.... Nominal wage growth has improved, but... not nearly enough for policymakers to start worrying about its impact on inflation... higher inflationary pressures in the second quarter were concentrated mainly in April and May.... The economy has created about 230,000 jobs per month this year.... Furthermore, in June there was a rise in the labour force participation rate.... The labour market isn’t yet healthy, but it is healing. The Fed... explicitly emphasised that 'a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources'.... Yellen’s position on labour market slack and her call that some unexpectedly high inflation readings earlier this year were 'noise' look pretty good right now...

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