Evening Must-Read: The Hamilton Project: Future of Work Event: Tweets
Liveblogging World War II: February 20, 1945: Nazi Propaganda in Breslau

Noted for Your Nighttime Procrastination for February 19, 2015

Screenshot 10 3 14 6 17 PMOver at Equitable Growth--The Equitablog


And Over Here:

Must- and Shall-Reads:

  1. The Hamilton Project (@hamiltonproj) | Twitter: You can watch the full #FutureOfWork forum on @cspan http://cs.pn/1z3WKBP
    That concludes our #FutureOfWork event.Thanks to our panelists for a great discussion. Visit http://bit.ly/1BZmC4U for video & audio

  2. Simon Wren-Lewis: Endogenous Supply and Depressed Demand: "Without fiscal austerity the US, UK and Eurozone could currently be at output levels that are above current estimates of potential or natural output.... But are these estimates of potential output really independent of the path of actual output?... We know that stylised view is wrong for a variety of reasons. Labour that has been unemployed may become deskilled. Firms that are forced to cut back on investment in a recession may take time to rebuild their productive capacity. However there may be other ways it is wrong for reasons that are much more difficult to quantity. In particular, if investment falls in a recession, new technology that has to be embodied in new machines may fail to emerge, so the rate of technological progress may appear to decline. These processes may not matter too much in normal (mild and short lived) booms and busts. However following a large recession they may become more important.... After a severe recession which appears to result in a loss of capacity, you use policy to explore the boundaries of just how much capacity has really been lost, and run the risk that inflation may rise as you do so. You do not sit back, tell yourself that below target inflation is probably temporary, and do nothing. And, of course, you do not plan for more fiscal austerity."

  3. Nick Bunker: Income Inequality Over the Business Cycle: "Stephen Rose argues that income inequality has not risen since the end of the Great Recession... takes aim at research by University of California-Berkeley economist Emmanuel Saez showing that 95 percent of the income gains from 2009 to 2012 were captured by the top 1 percent of earners... assert[s claims]... inequality has risen since the Great Recession... based upon a ‘statistical gimmick.’ Rose... look[s] at changes in incomes since 2007, the peak of the last business cycle.... Saez and... Piketty show... income excluding capital gains... [of] the top 1 percent dropped from 18.3 percent in 2007 to 16.7 percent in 2009.... During economic expansions, workers at the bottom of the income ladder see very large gains and those at the top see large gains as well. Those in the middle miss out. And during recessions, the incomes at both ends lose the most.... By starting his measurement from the peak of the last business cycle in 2007, Rose includes the years that have the most income reduction for those at the top. But the expansion beginning in 2009... is not over.... Yes, if 2007 is the benchmark year, incomes at the top have declined. And yes, if 2009 is the benchmark year, incomes at the top have increased dramatically.... What isn’t reasonable is using a peak as a benchmark to claim inequality hasn’t increased over an incomplete business cycle..."

Should Be Aware of:


  1. Josh Marshall: We Can't All Live in Interesting Times: Admonishing Jeff Herf: "The person who stood out to me more than anyone else was Herf... averring... that anyone who had opposed the [2003] Iraq War had 'failed the test of armed anti-fascism.' Heady words... [that] struck me at the time as full of self-regard and historical pretension. The Democratic party would never win another national election until this historical error was righted and it was the end of liberalism in its entirety, he went on. He had all the hard sectarian left's grandiosity and picayune concern for the obscure detail grafted like a face transplant onto the values of the hard right.... Some people can't resist the hifalutin equivalent of dressing up as cowboys and Indians or cops and robbers. Play-acting. Fantasy. At least the Civil War and World War II re-enactors know they're reenacting. So when I saw [Herf's] new piece, I thought, are we at another world historical moment with new Churchills and Chamberlains and Islamofascist bad guys? Well, yes we are! Only now Robert Menendez is Scoop Jackson or something like that.... One could be forgiven one episode of war intoxication. But another world historical crossroads so soon? And all over yet another government in the same part of the world to be toppled?"

  2. Constitutional Mistermix: This Street Holds Its Secrets: "Yesterday my kid called me with the news that a former high school classmate, now 19 and attending Cornell, had shot and killed his father in their suburban tract house. The boy’s mother told the 911 dispatcher that the boy was defending himself from the father when he shot his dad multiple times with a shotgun. After the shooting, the boy and mother waited on the snowy driveway of the house for the sheriff’s deputies to arrive. I only knew this young man as a boy who played in the band with my kid. He was friends with some of my kid’s group of friends, but I don’t think he had ever been in our house. Neighbors say that he was always polite and helpful. There had been a number of domestic violence calls to the home. Late yesterday, the boy’s attorney told the press that there had been ‘decades’ of domestic violence and abuse perpetrated by the father on the children.  The parents are first- or second-generation Asian immigrants--I don’t know enough about their culture or their family situation to know why nobody asked for more help. I don’t know if the gun was the father’s or the son’s. All I know is that it was there in a terrible situation and now someone is dead. This is the second time in a couple of years that a gun plus a volatile domestic situation has led to death in a generally peaceful little suburb."

  3. Yael T. Abouhalkah: Kris Kobach exposed in phony Kansas voter fraud claim: "U.S. Attorney Barry Grissom.... ‘So we can avoid misstatements of facts for the future, for the record, we have received no voter fraud cases from your office in over four and a half years. And, I can assure you, I do know what I’m talking about.’"