...which one do you turn to? Prime-age EPOP? U6-U3?... Definitely not a good measure right now: the unemployment rate.... The decline in U3 doesn't seem to be matching up with the movements in the wage growth data.... How about the difference between U3 and the U6 measure of unemployment? Similar.... How about prime-age EPOP?... It works here. Looks to me that the up-tick in ECI growth seems to be happening around the same time as the up-tick in the growth of the prime-age EPOP.... I thought it was interesting how well prime-age EPOP did and that it tracked ECI so well.
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